SPK - Spark NZ

[Breezy]

Closed at $4.09. Was $4.10 a decade ago. Land crab of a share. A lot of talk and nice presentations though.

A whole decade of consistent big divvies, nice crab.

[seaweed]

A whole decade of consistent big divvies, nice crab.

Hey Breezy looks like SPK on the move again. Could be divy hunters coming back. Sp in little uptrend since 24 June LOL. The 10 day MA1 crossed over the 30 day MA2 in early July. Where to from here 4.50 or back to 5

[seaweed]

Hey Breezy looks like SPK on the move again. Could be divy hunters coming back. Sp in little uptrend since 24 June LOL. The 10 day MA1 crossed over the 30 day MA2 in early July. Where to from here 4.50 or back to 5

Looks like the 30 day MA1 has just crossed over the 60 day MA2 yesterday. SPK up 13% in last 6 weeks from its low of $3.91c on 19/6/24. Anyone else on this forum take advantage of the $3.90s to $4.20s offerings in last few weeks. Good on you if you did, but don't know how far it will run plus div on the horizon will help sp move along.   

[Left Field]

Looks like the 30 day MA1 has just crossed over the 60 day MA2 yesterday. SPK up 13% in last 6 weeks from its low of $3.91c on 19/6/24. Anyone else on this forum take advantage of the $3.90s to $4.20s offerings in last few weeks. Good on you if you did, but don't know how far it will run plus div on the horizon will help sp move along.   

I've read Snoopy's posts re IFT v SPK on the other channel with interest. 
SPK certainly looking ok in the short term .

However as a longer term investor I prefer IFT (which is currently experiencing some short term post Cap Raise profit taking/correction, but IMO has a much stronger longer term FY25/26 position.)

I suspect you are more of a short term investor/dividend hound, and I wish you well with SPK.

[seaweed]

I've read Snoopy's posts re IFT v SPK on the other channel with interest. 
SPK certainly looking ok in the short term .

However as a longer term investor I prefer IFT (which is currently experiencing some short term post Cap Raise profit taking/correction, but IMO has a much stronger longer term FY25/26 position.)

I suspect you are more of a short term investor/dividend hound, and I wish you well with SPK.

Yes that is right x2. Me div hound plus trader. Had a weeks break in Gold Coast and ignored the market. Noticed the 30 day MA has crossed over the 60 day MA last week. Now back in the green by 48k and waiting.   

[Left Field]

Latest result......... BAU..........  SP down on opening.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/436700/attachment/425422/436700-425422.pdf

• Reported and adjusted1 Revenue2, EBITDAI3 and NPAT4 declined
• Mobile service revenue surpassed $1 billion for the first time and IT products, data centres,
and high-tech continued to grow
• Growth offset as economic conditions impacted IT services demand, competition intensified
in business mobile, and lower consumer spending impacted mobile devices and accessories
• SPK-26 Operate Programme accelerated in H2, but could not adapt the cost base to
changing demand quickly enough, with benefits to be largely realised in FY25
• On-market share buy-back concluded5 and total FY24 dividend of 27.5 cents per share
declared, 100% imputed

FY25 guidance
Spark provided the following guidance for FY25, subject to no adverse change in operating
outlook:
• EBITDAI: $1,165 - $1,220 million
• Capital expenditure: ~$460 - $480 million
• Total dividend per share: 27.5 cents per share, 75% imputed

[LoungeLizard]

Spoiler alert..... I don't hold SPK, ( but own Vodafone via IFT)

That said, I've enjoyed reading Snoopy's recent SPK posts on the other chanel.  Check them out. He rates SPK as a possible buy or top-up at current low SP levels.

SPK has been a good Div/yield stock to-date for holders, however these dividends have arguably been supported by SPK's history of asset sales. IMO the question that needs to be asked is how sustainable are SPK's divvies going forward?  This Q also possibly explains a little of SPK's recent SP weakness.

Yep, divvy sustainability is the big question in my mind. Long term though I have no worries about Spark - it's the biggest player in a very necessary growth industry. The current austerity-minded Government has weakened demand for its services, but that - like this Government - is just a temporary blip.
 
SP is getting hammered this morning. A good buy imo, the concerns about the divvy notwithstanding.

[BlackPeter]

Yep, divvy sustainability is the big question in my mind. Long term though I have no worries about Spark - it's the biggest player in a very necessary growth industry. The current austerity-minded Government has weakened demand for its services, but that - like this Government - is just a temporary blip.
 
SP is getting hammered this morning. A good buy imo, the concerns about the divvy notwithstanding.

Interesting - their 2014 EPS was 18 cts, and 2024 is 17 cts. OK - both not their flashest years, but even the average EPS over the last decade was just 25 cents - so, yes, they clearly pay their admittedly juicy dividend by taking from the substance. What possibly can go wrong?

While I agree that NZ is likely to keep a number two in their communication duopoly (and why not using the existing infrastructure? ) - not quite sure I see the current prices as a "Good Buy". How do you measure that?

Discl: not holding and its a long time ago that I last saw a reason to use their services ...

[LoungeLizard]

Interesting - their 2014 EPS was 18 cts, and 2024 is 17 cts. OK - both not their flashest years, but even the average EPS over the last decade was just 25 cents - so, yes, they clearly pay their admittedly juicy dividend by taking from the substance. What possibly can go wrong?

While I agree that NZ is likely to keep a number two in their communication duopoly (and why not using the existing infrastructure? ) - not quite sure I see the current prices as a "Good Buy". How do you measure that?

Discl: not holding and its a long time ago that I last saw a reason to use their services ...

I measure it by comparing it to the historical price. You have to go a long, long way back to find the SP at levels they have been at recently. The past may not be perfect indicator of the future, but it's not a bad place to start.

[Mos]

P/E of 22.6 at $3.95 with no demonstrated ability to grow eps or share price over the past decade - does not seem    compelling value.

[BlackPeter]

I measure it by comparing it to the historical price. You have to go a long, long way back to find the SP at levels they have been at recently. The past may not be perfect indicator of the future, but it's not a bad place to start.

I think you might find that historic share prices are rarely a good indicator for the future. Just remember the poor sods who bought into Synlait at $6 (which was a steal, given that the same share was only months earlier worth nearly twice of that. But hey, just pick your own favourite example for markets getting it wrong for a long time and suddenly waking up - there are so many.

All shares come with a decent amount of hype (sometimes positive, sometimes negative), but at the end it is only the future earnings potential which counts, as Mos nicely indicated.

The only sensible reason to pay $4 for a company which used to deliver over a long time earnings in the mid 20-cents range pa without any growth would be if I can assume things change and the company is from now on delivering solid growth. Not sure, though, where this growth should come from? While no doubt communication stays important - what I noticed as user is that my budget for telecommunication services shrunk significantly over the years ... despite services as such much improving.

Its tough to keep (or grow) earnings in a shrinking fee pie.

[winner (n)]

P/E of 22.6 at $3.95 with no demonstrated ability to grow eps or share price over the past decade - does not seem    compelling value.

Always been seen as a dividend stock

Current 8,3% pretty attractive for those punters

[BlackPeter]

Always been seen as a dividend stock

Current 8,3% pretty attractive for those punters

8.3% ? Ah, I see you add the imputation credits, do you?

But no matter how you calculate it, it is a quite good dividend. The only worry for any forward looking investor would be how long they will be able to keep paying a dividend higher than their earnings?

But hey, why worry about the fountain to dry up, as long as their is still some water left ... ? I see NTA is still 41 cts per share - this could pay for 10 more years popping up the dividend. No worries, all good!

[Mos]

Always been seen as a dividend stock

Current 8,3% pretty attractive for those punters

Yes bond proxy seems the case for holding. Sustainability of the current yield will be interesting with adjusted eps of 18.9 cps and dividend of 27.5 cps. Will require some eps growth at some stage to keep dividends rolling at the level shareholders have enjoyed to date. Pretty aggressive dividend policy.

[winner (n)]

Yes bond proxy seems the case for holding. Sustainability of the current yield will be interesting with adjusted eps of 18.9 cps and dividend of 27.5 cps. Will require some eps growth at some stage to keep dividends rolling at the level shareholders have enjoyed to date. Pretty aggressive dividend policy.

Theresa cut the divie once .... All hell broke out