HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Basil]

Smoke and mirrors. Previous year had about $50m of belated write-offs.

[Shareguy]

https://share.google/xGuAKleAHesl5J2Qd


https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/139904/heartland-ceo-andrew-dixson-says-if-proposed-tsb-deal-goes-through-heartland-will

[Left Field]

A useful article for those interested in the future potential that HGH is chasing.

https://www.mpamag.com/nz/specialty/reverse/heartland-targeting-further-reverse-mortgage-momentum/586942

[LaserEyeKiwi]

9.9 CPS v 16 CPS many years ago.  A growth company or just a cyclical company ?

When HGH was earning 16cps it was trading at twice the sahre price it is today, and majority of profits were from riskier business segments. Today the majority of profits are from reverse mortgages which have virtually zero NPLs and ultra conservative LVRs, and that part of their business is their growth engine (20% growth).

HGH at $1.27 in 2026 with 10c EPS is a vastly superior investment than HGH trading at $2.50 in 2022 with 16c EPS

It was an even better investment getting in at just 0.72c last year, but many here didn't want to hear that for some reason, and I guess are a bit bitter about it now maybe.

[Basil]

Not bitter at all, after all it was great selling at $2.50 in 2022, ask me how I know.

Yes the risk profile has reduced and earnings with it, meanwhile the cost to income ratio to service these much lower risk loans has exploded upwards which is the single biggest reason earnings have contracted.

Maybe ask yourself what part of that makes common sense?  I would have thought all these new reverse mortgages would require an absolute minimum level of management time ?

Fat cat bankers getting fatter at shareholders expense ?

[Left Field]

Fat cat bankers getting fatter at shareholders expense ?

I happen to like the fat in my banking investments.

[Left Field]

Not bitter at all, after all it was great selling at $2.50 in 2022, ask me how I know.

Seems our Guru poster is never wrong however,  he posted in 2025  that he had sold HGH at around break even.... (in/out around $1.20??)

Here's what he posted previously in post #1930

I sold out completely shortly after that at break even,

I recall the same time and time again..... the subsequent story is a lot different to what you post at the time. eg. AIR you posted that "I took a bath" and several years later claim that you did v well etc etc.


Some honesty and modesty in your posts would be great to see.

[Basil]

Maybe you're getting too old to remember Leftie...we've had this conversation about 8 times already.
As I have previously acknowledged already several times my most recent foray into HGH was approximately a break even result.  Nobody wins every time but I am very content overall with my time investing at HGH.  Gosh you're getting very desperate bringing up AIR investment from over a decade ago.   Surely you can find something more recent where I have tripped up.

This is what I posted in Nov 2020 when I backed up the truck at $1.30.

For many years now I have compared the forward metrics to HGH's peers in Australia and found a very close correlation. Its not often that HGH's forward PE is more or less than 2 different to the average of its peers so imagine my surprise when I noted yesterday that based on HGH's official forecast at the midpoint of $84m = 14.4 cps HGH are currently on a forward FY21 PE of just 9.4 !
This compares with peers as follows, (all figures are average analyst forecasts off market screener)
ANZ 13.3
WBC 13.4
NAB 15.8
BEN 14.3
BOQ 14.4
CBA 18.2
Peer Group Average 14.9

When HGH metrics got to late teens PE in my opinion they were a sell and I clearly stated that when that situation presented itself.  Its on the record, go and look it up if you want to check..

The metrics are currently in the middle of their historical range.  EPS was nearly 50% higher in 2020 at 14.4 cps and the share price was about the same as it is now.  That sort of PE is a BUY and that happened before HGH management disgraced themselves twice by issuing shares on terms that severely disadvantaged retail holders and subsequently by massively under provisioning bad and doubtful debts, a mess it took them years to acknowledge.

What's clear to ne now however is that the greedy fat cat management have blown their cost to income ratio completely out to hitherto unprecedented level's.  I think it will take many years of steady EPS growth before management's credibility will be restored, if ever.

How are they tracking with their previously expressed targets of getting their CTI ratio down to 35% by FY28 or their profit up to $200m by FY28.  A complete train wreck, that's how they're progressing those goals. 

I'm not bitter, I've done well from HGH over the years but I have no confidence left in the board or management.  If you do, that's fine and good luck to you.