HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Basil]

Brokers recent research.
Craigs.Overweight...Target Price [12mths].$1.76
Forbar.Neutral......Target Price..........$1.37
Jarden.Overweight...Target Price [12mths].$1.92
Current share price $1.22

I sometimes heard it suggested that Jarden have the best and most thorough analysts.  Penny for your thoughts on that.

[lorraina]

I think most people would agree with that comment,however some analysts seem to be very good on the odd stock.
HGH for example.When HGH was formed Craigs' target price was always set about 5 cents below the then current share price.
Think Craigs always had a neutral opinion.Jarden's were usually a bit more positive,but the real surprise was Forbar's analyst, who always seemed to be spot on with his target price and HGH's earnings.
Now today.?..........I just do not know.

[Shareguy]

I had heard that Jarden were not on earnings call and have not updated their research note (as of a couple of days ago) so $1.90 might change.

Lorraina, Any idea as to how recent that note is?

The last cap raise 08/22 Jarden participated to the tune of 12m shares at $1.80 each. Jarden according to last disclosure 12/22 have 35 million shares or five percent of shares for both Jarden and Harbour.  Looks like a large unrealized loss at current price.

As far as who has the best and most accurate research notes, in my opinion it depends on the analyst.  Arie from Jarden in my opinion is the best in the retirement sector. And like most people sometimes they ALL get it wrong.

[winner (n)]

Seems broker analyst gurus are only good at following the share price with their targets  ....up and down

Chart from Marketscreener starts mid 2019

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[lorraina]

I had heard that Jarden were not on earnings call and have not updated their research note (as of a couple of days ago) so $1.90 might change.

Lorraina, Any idea as to how recent that note is?

The last cap raise 08/22 Jarden participated to the tune of 12m shares at $1.80 each. Jarden according to last disclosure 12/22 have 35 million shares or five percent of shares for both Jarden and Harbour.  Looks like a large unrealized loss at current price.

As far as who has the best and most accurate research notes, in my opinion it depends on the analyst.  Arie from Jarden in my opinion is the best in the retirement sector. And like most people sometimes they ALL get it wrong.

HGH.NZ | Heartland Group Holdings Limited | Financials
1H24 impacted by impairments; looking ahead
to Aus Bank establishment
Results |    01 March 2024 (19:08 NZDT)

[winner (n)]

Hey Basil ....where was HGH on most sold or most bought last week rankings that Jarden produce

Could be interesting

[winner (n)]

HBL/HGH share price since it listed below

Basil says good buying when way below trend line ......and should sell when way above trend line.

Methinks he's right this time ....again

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[Basil]

Cool chart mate.  Shows the share price is more of out whack now than even during the extreme panic and fear of the onset of the global Covid pandemic in March 2020.  Makes no sense to me.  Plenty of patience required and it will revert to the trendline or above in due course.  Yeap, I have traded all those extremes over the years and done handsomely well.    I see no good reason to believe it won't happen again but good things take time.

# 1 last week in Jarden's buy's, v #8 the week before that.
Trades ex 4 cent fully imputed divvy tomorrow.

[LoungeLizard]

Arts degree eh LL

Hah! You could say that Crackity. A good economist needs a foot in both camps - the real world and the world of economics.
But you could probably say the same thing about Accountants...

[LoungeLizard]

HBL/HGH share price since it listed below

Basil says good buying when way below trend line ......and should sell when way above trend line.

Methinks he's right this time ....again

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Not a bad philosophy and the hounds pedigree in this matter is beyond rebuke. It's both the timing and the issues that HGH are currently facing that bothers me and keeps makes me keep my powder dry. Sometimes the SP is way below the line for good reasons and until those reasons change the SP won't either. If the next few announcements are positive and the line starts to move up, then jump in quick. If things in OZ become problematic, then hold your horses. Gambling that the downtrend has stopped - without any real evidence - and that this is a good time to buy is just that - a gamble.
 
BTW - OCA is WAY below the line but I don't see anyone lining up to buy. Too many imponderables? The jury still out on their new strategy? A cut in dividend? Sound familiar?

[winner (n)]

BTW - OCA is WAY below the line but I don't see anyone lining up to buy. Too many imponderables? The jury still out on their new strategy? A cut in dividend? Sound familiar?

Yes, OCA is below the line ...but the big problem is that the OCA trend line is sloping down

[LoungeLizard]

Yes, OCA is below the line ...but the big problem is that the OCA trend line is sloping down

Hang on - are you saying that HGH's trend line is NOT sloping down? Evidence?

[LoungeLizard]

And I get your chart shows the trend line sloping up, but I don't see it in the SP, event line or in any momentum analysis. What points are you plotting?

[LoungeLizard]

OCA's trend line from 2022 looks remarkably like HGH's. ie a confirmed downtrend. If you go back to the year dot, as Winner's graph does with HGH, then you can plot the peaks from years ago and give the appearance of an upward trending line. If you do this with OCA, and ignore the trend from the last couple of years you can make OCA look like they are going up. I respect your graphing skills there Winner and find them really useful, but not in this case. The trend line for the last couple of years tells the real story.

[Left Field]

OCA's trend line from 2022 looks remarkably like HGH's. ie a confirmed downtrend. If you go back to the year dot, as Winner's graph does with HGH, then you can plot the peaks from years ago and give the appearance of an upward trending line. If you do this with OCA, and ignore the trend from the last couple of years you can make OCA look like they are going up. I respect your graphing skills there Winner and find them really useful, but not in this case. The trend line for the last couple of years tells the real story.

LL FWIW Here's a comparison of HGH v OCA SP performance over the last 5 years.

Hardly inspiring for either company.