HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Basil]

28 PE based on FY25 result which included write-downs which may happen again.
Has historically traded between 9 and 18 with 18 being a sell and 9 being a buy.   Based on analyst consensus of 9.4 cps for FY26 its on 12.5 times FY26 earnings which seems about right BUT the big unknown is will they take more "so called extraordinary" loan write downs this year ?  I say "so called extraordinary" write-downs because all that's really happening is they're correcting the under provision for bad and doubtful debts from previous reporting periods.

[BlackPeter]

No doubt, as in any other case there are positive and negative indicators - and, as in every other case nobody knows what the future will bring.

And hey, even indicators itself are questionable. if we look e.g. at PE's - a 10 year frame including the 3 years forward  is 15, 10 year backwards PE is 10. Not bad, but hey, latter is obviously impacted from the good old times before the CR. Obviously - PE CAGR (negative for both timeframes) doesn't look that good, given the huge CR, but if we set the deadline after the CR?

So - nobody really knows how things will develop from here.  With any stock.

What I can see however is that markets are (at this stage) quite positive. SP goes up since April - and Golden Cross was in September. Anybody who bought the shares in the last year made a nice gain. Not sure, I'd would consider this as the indication that markets are concerned about the stock? Anyway, I like to hold stocks which are rising, and HGH is one of them.

Not too tough to wait how the Australian game develops as long as shares are in an uptrend - and economy going up as well.

[Waltzing]

While there is a housing market HGH at least has a market .. along with business and.. transport...

But at least it has not got to the point where its a gambling game....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4hLvGVq3jE

[winner (n)]

Hey BP - when you say a 10 year frame including the 3 years forward  is 15, 10 year backwards PE is 10 what's the actual calculation

Is the average EPS for the time frames divided into current share price?

Or is it average of last 10 years NPAT $ divided by current number of shares to give an EPS to calculate a PE

Interested to know

[winner (n)]

Heartland Income has grown at 7.8% pa over the last 6 years

Pretty good

[lorraina]

Actually hopeless considering the number of shares on issue has risen by 62.22% in the same time..
September 2020....580,979,106.
Today ,942,543,367.

[BlackPeter]

Hey BP - when you say a 10 year frame including the 3 years forward  is 15, 10 year backwards PE is 10 what's the actual calculation

Is the average EPS for the time frames divided into current share price?

Or is it average of last 10 years NPAT $ divided by current number of shares to give an EPS to calculate a PE

Interested to know

Hi winner,

I think we discussed this already some years ago, but hey, so many other things happening.

10 years back: average annual earnings of the last 10 years (yes, per share) and the P is the current SP.

Forward PE - again, I take a 10 year timeframe, but this time including the analyst predictions of the coming three years (or a linear prediction, if I can't get forecasts for all of them) - and the last 7 years. P is again todays (or last time I did the calculation) PS. 

True - if I use NPAT numbers, things probably would look (in this case) better - but hey, as shareholder, I am obviously interested in return per share.

CAGR: basically same timeframe, however in this case using one of excels functions to draw a line through the 10 annual earnings (and use this line to calculate the CAGR) in order to prevent individual blibs to change the overall growth.

[winner (n)]

Actually hopeless considering the number of shares on issue has risen by 62.22% in the same time..
September 2020....580,979,106.
Today ,942,543,367.

All that new capital not doing much is it lorriana
Shareholder Equity in $ terms 9% higher .... about 1% pa growth9

[winner (n)]

Street talk says Heartland has had a boomer first half. Even one report of execs looking forward to bonus

Share price up 123 .....street talk must have some substance

But there is an old saying buy the rumour sell the fact

[Left Field]

12 month high on close today at $1.23 on healthy volumes.

Holders 'well positioned.'

Looking forward to the next update.
 

[Left Field]

Word on the street (according to Balance) as 1.6 mill shares traded today at $1.235c.

"HGH is seen as undervalued when its growth (double digit) in Australia is measured against what a bank with double digit growth should be valued at.

The excellent traction that Heartland Australian is gaining with the reverse mortgage market and being funded sustainably via the growth in its ADI bank deposits is being noticed.

So if you do an exercise of valuing the Australian operations at say, PER of 16 times and Price to book of 1.5 times - $1.20 for HGH is a low entry price for a bank growing at double digit with a very low risk profile."

[Basil]

No disputing that and the value of their reverse mortgage book here, it's just that almost every other part of their balance sheet gives pitiful returns on capital.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

$1.28!

HGH popping off.

[Minimoke]

$1.28!

HGH popping off.

Nearly back to where it was in 2018

[Left Field]

$1.28!

HGH popping off.

Happy I increased my HGH holding by a third recently (using my TWR divvy)

Feeling 'well positioned' with my av SP holding at $1.03