HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[snapiti]

I think the beagle is much like myself when it comes to sniffing out BS.
I have lost count of the amount of times my BS radar has made me sell or not buy an investment which turned out to be a very wise decision.
In fact I am pleased to say my BS radar has very rarely let me down.
I have learned that it is wide spread that corporates tend to understate the negatives and cheerlead the positives so one should be cautious and take special notice of the negatives and dig a little deeper than the companies statement.
Market does not like uncertainty nor does it tolerate BS for long periods of time so often it is best to quit these sort of companies before the rest of the market takes notice.
In saying that Heartlands SP IMO already reflects the poor results and most of the BS and certainly does not factor in much success in Aus.




[/quote]

[winner (n)]

Turners had a nice looking 2020 Alfa Romeo Giulia in the yard the other day with a $84,000 price tag

Guy said it had been repossessed ...punter thought he could afford it in 2020 but the world has changed..... and added lots more repos than usual these days as punters can't afford the payments

Alfa guy probably financed by Heartland 👻

[Basil]

Leanne Lazurus seems completely relaxed about continuing to provide zero deposit motor vehicle finance egged-on by one of the directors who touted only a 2% overall loss rate.  They seem oblivious to the fact that the unemployment rate is going up and unconcerned that vehicles lose a large percentage of their value the moment they are driven off the car yard.   Even mentioned in the meeting that the major Australian banks are stepping back from vehicle lending, but they see that as quite "the opportunity".  $1.6 Billion in vehicle lending and growing.  Some of that pretty reckless with no deposit.  Good business ?...you be the judge.

[Waltzing]

sounds like more business for TRA motor finance?

[KW]

I think the beagle is much like myself when it comes to sniffing out BS.
I have lost count of the amount of times my BS radar has made me sell or not buy an investment which turned out to be a very wise decision.
In fact I am pleased to say my BS radar has very rarely let me down.
I have learned that it is wide spread that corporates tend to understate the negatives and cheerlead the positives so one should be cautious and take special notice of the negatives and dig a little deeper than the companies statement.
Market does not like uncertainty nor does it tolerate BS for long periods of time so often it is best to quit these sort of companies before the rest of the market takes notice.
In saying that Heartlands SP IMO already reflects the poor results and most of the BS and certainly does not factor in much success in Aus.

Or you could simply not buy stocks in a downtrend 

[snapiti]

the interesting thing about Mr Markets is often it trades on fear, greed, momentum/confidence both in general and for individual stocks, these are often the drivers of trends so for that reason I shall use trends as part of the tool box, I think too many opportunities are created by the emotional aspects of the markets for one to purely say don't buy in a down trend.   

[KW]

the interesting thing about Mr Markets is often it trades on fear, greed, momentum/confidence both in general and for individual stocks, these are often the drivers of trends so for that reason I shall use trends as part of the tool box, I think too many opportunities are created by the emotional aspects of the markets for one to purely say don't buy in a down trend. 

Maybe in the short term, but over the long term a trend reflects the collective wisdom of the market.  As Graham says, "in the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine". 

So a long term downtrend means the market has carefully considered the value proposition of the stock in question, and gone "yeah, nah".  It has been judged by large numbers of holders and potential buyers who have decided that its a poor investment.  In HGH's case, this is the entire ASX stock analyst industry who are all experts on bank stocks. 

Secondly, fund managers dont buy stocks based on fear and greed.  That's something that naive retail investors do.  Fund managers cant move into and out of a stock based on a whim or emotional panic.  So when they start exiting you know things are bad.  Thats why you follow the "smart money" - the money that does the "weighing".

Most of the companies on the NZX are bad investments, poorly run, with second rate management.  Its always enlightening to look at how little interest Australian fund managers have in most of the dual listed NZ stocks - they really do avoid them like the proverbial plague.  Very few are considered investment quality. But when something of quality is listed, they are happy to jump on board - see Xero, Fisher & Paykel, Gentrack. 

HGH has been in a long term downtrend since January 2022.  Thats almost 3 years.  And its kept falling despite the new global bull market that started November last year. 

[Greekwatchdog]

The biggest problem with HGH is that they have gone to the market some many times for new capital to grow. I have lost count how many raises they have down in past 3 years.

I bought in end July for $1.06 after selling out @ $2.06 August 2021.

They have always lent on riskier side hence higher NIM and now are paying the price for that. I expect this time next year we will be discussing how bad 2025 was, but then start to look forward to 2026 when things improve.

There are pro/cons to all investments, HGH's have been well discussed. 2025 will be the clean out with new management in charge. $200m in 2028 seems a hell of a long way from here but things can change quickly both ways.

[Breezy]

Maybe in the short term, but over the long term a trend reflects the collective wisdom of the market.  As Graham says, "in the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine". 

So a long term downtrend means the market has carefully considered the value proposition of the stock in question, and gone "yeah, nah".  It has been judged by large numbers of holders and potential buyers who have decided that its a poor investment.  In HGH's case, this is the entire ASX stock analyst industry who are all experts on bank stocks. 

Secondly, fund managers dont buy stocks based on fear and greed.  That's something that naive retail investors do.  Fund managers cant move into and out of a stock based on a whim or emotional panic.  So when they start exiting you know things are bad.  Thats why you follow the "smart money" - the money that does the "weighing".

Most of the companies on the NZX are bad investments, poorly run, with second rate management.  Its always enlightening to look at how little interest Australian fund managers have in most of the dual listed NZ stocks - they really do avoid them like the proverbial plague.  Very few are considered investment quality. But when something of quality is listed, they are happy to jump on board - see Xero, Fisher & Paykel, Gentrack. 

HGH has been in a long term downtrend since January 2022.  Thats almost 3 years.  And its kept falling despite the new global bull market that started November last year. 

Fund managers arent using their own personal money so of course there's not the emotion involved but they are often far from being the smart money, how many examples would you like where fundies have ended up being the opposite of smart? There are of course other things they do which ensures that they are raking in the money continuously, some of which should be illegal yet the regulators turn a blind eye.

[Basil]

This time next year, the economy should hopefully be looking a bit better but the real question is how many more dodgy loans will get added to the bad bank in FY25? Quite common for new CEO's to kitchen sink all known problems and therefore FY25's result could be a real shocker.

[snapiti]

Maybe in the short term, but over the long term a trend reflects the collective wisdom of the market.  As Graham says, "in the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine". 

So a long term downtrend means the market has carefully considered the value proposition of the stock in question, and gone "yeah, nah".  It has been judged by large numbers of holders and potential buyers who have decided that its a poor investment.  In HGH's case, this is the entire ASX stock analyst industry who are all experts on bank stocks. 

Secondly, fund managers dont buy stocks based on fear and greed.  That's something that naive retail investors do.  Fund managers cant move into and out of a stock based on a whim or emotional panic.  So when they start exiting you know things are bad.  Thats why you follow the "smart money" - the money that does the "weighing".

Most of the companies on the NZX are bad investments, poorly run, with second rate management.  Its always enlightening to look at how little interest Australian fund managers have in most of the dual listed NZ stocks - they really do avoid them like the proverbial plague.  Very few are considered investment quality. But when something of quality is listed, they are happy to jump on board - see Xero, Fisher & Paykel, Gentrack. 

HGH has been in a long term downtrend since January 2022.  Thats almost 3 years.  And its kept falling despite the new global bull market that started November last year. 

Made plenty of money from doing my own research when looking at unloved stocks, don't have to wait for a chart to tell when to buy and sell, although it can be useful, charts are only one part of the picture.
I say do your own research rather than take to much notice of squiggly lines.
hmmmmmm if fund managers were "smart money" at what they do how come most of them struggle to perform better than index funds over the long term.
To be honest most fund managers only need to be right 65% of the time to supply returns that seem acceptable to many.
 

[Shareguy]

Maybe in the short term, but over the long term a trend reflects the collective wisdom of the market.  As Graham says, "in the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine". 

So a long term downtrend means the market has carefully considered the value proposition of the stock in question, and gone "yeah, nah".  It has been judged by large numbers of holders and potential buyers who have decided that its a poor investment.  In HGH's case, this is the entire ASX stock analyst industry who are all experts on bank stocks. 

Secondly, fund managers dont buy stocks based on fear and greed.  That's something that naive retail investors do.  Fund managers cant move into and out of a stock based on a whim or emotional panic.  So when they start exiting you know things are bad.  Thats why you follow the "smart money" - the money that does the "weighing".

Most of the companies on the NZX are bad investments, poorly run, with second rate management.  Its always enlightening to look at how little interest Australian fund managers have in most of the dual listed NZ stocks - they really do avoid them like the proverbial plague.  Very few are considered investment quality. But when something of quality is listed, they are happy to jump on board - see Xero, Fisher & Paykel, Gentrack. 

HGH has been in a long term downtrend since January 2022.  Thats almost 3 years.  And its kept falling despite the new global bull market that started November last year. 

You make some good points. I often question why I bother with the NZX at all. However I agree with Pie funds and Craig's that it's our turn. I'm hopeful that we are near to the bottom with HGH. I do agree there is a risk around these ring fenced assets. And further bad debts. But hey that's the risk you take.

[winner (n)]

Interesting that at AGM there was a few words about adopting AI, no doubt part of their plan to proactively visualize an expanded array of strategic theme areas thereby
dynamically resource-maximizing intellectual capital.

I think that's what the guy said

That'll help getting to $200m profit in 2028

[KW]

Made plenty of money from doing my own research when looking at unloved stocks, don't have to wait for a chart to tell when to buy and sell, although it can be useful, charts are only one part of the picture.
I say do your own research rather than take to much notice of squiggly lines.
hmmmmmm if fund managers were "smart money" at what they do how come most of them struggle to perform better than index funds over the long term.
To be honest most fund managers only need to be right 65% of the time to supply returns that seem acceptable to many.
 

Because index funds are technically driven - they simply buy more of what is going up in price (increased index weighting) and sell more of what is going down in price (reduced index weighting).  When companies decline in price so much they are removed from the index completely and replaced by something that is better.  Thats why its difficult to outperform an index - because TA outperforms FA. 

[BlackPeter]

Because index funds are technically driven - they simply buy more of what is going up in price (increased index weighting) and sell more of what is going down in price (reduced index weighting).  When companies decline in price so much they are removed from the index completely and replaced by something that is better.  Thats why its difficult to outperform an index - because TA outperforms FA.

You never should state unproven believes as a fact.

Name any TA based fund which consistently (i.e. over more then one stock market cycle) outperformed Warren Buffett's investments (which are exclusively FA based)?

I suppose the list you could provide to prove you statement will be very empty.

Well done FA always beats TA.