HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Waltzing]

weighed up risks from points of view.. yes BP reminds us that sometime we get it right and sometimes ....

and probably even when the numbers look good it can all go to pot...

[LoungeLizard]

Talking from experience?

Look, we have heard your story - and in the meantime the discussion is not just moving in circles, but spiralling down to cheap personal shots.

Nobody can predict the future. Beagle outlined his view and backed it up with working assumptions - and you are highlighting some risks pointing to past events (linear extrapolations do have their limits though ), which may or may not be around.

Weighing these risks vs these opportunities is what investing is about. All have certain likelihoods - and nobody can measure them in advance - so what's the fuzz about? All we know is with the benefit of hindsight whether they happened or not. Up to each individual how to rate the opportunities against the risks.

I don't know what makes you so bitter, but personal attacks prove nothing (apart from telling us about the attacker) and never improve the dialogue.

Not bitter at all - that is my point. Just trying to provide some balance which, on a small forum, can become an echo chamber.

Cheap shots? Not really - just trying to prevent a bit of revisionism going on here. It's strange though that posters who are very assertive in their style, often telling others what they should and decrying them when they don't, tend to be very thin skinned themselves. Call it the Donald Trump effect...

[Basil]

I suppose this depends on your timeline Basil. I do remember you called OCA as a long term hold and told others they didn't know what they were talking about.

Almost everyone bought the story early on so eloquently told by Earl Gasparich that their business transformation program was going to radically improve returns on care.  It hasn't.  I woke up and smelled the coffee more than 2 years ago and sold out, (mostly at $1.40), made six figures, (has anyone else on here done that well out of that stock), and the rest, so far is history.  Good luck with it.

My average buy back in price with HGH currently sits at $1.07.  I'm very confident over the next few years that I will do well out of it.  Maybe a bit too confident based on very substantial success with the stock before...time will tell. 

I think everyone's expressed their viewpoint in a very "robust" way for now. I'm happy to let the HGH share price do the talking for a while.

[Waltzing]

I  did not  know that DT  had a track record of actually ADDING UP correctly...

and this a thread about a BANK....

back to bank NIMs in a high OCR town... what is the expected NIM in 25 for this BANK.

[Waltzing]

YUP more HIKES..maybe. we printied to much money on our money tree and you BANKS  lent the lot ....

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/127861/reserve-bank-has-left-official-cash-rate-unchanged-55-noting-domestic-inflation-slow

HIGHER FOR LONGER!!!!!

[Teitei]

YUP more HIKES..maybe. we printied to much money on our money tree and you BANKS  lent the lot ....

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/127861/reserve-bank-has-left-official-cash-rate-unchanged-55-noting-domestic-inflation-slow

HIGHER FOR LONGER!!!!!

Had a chat with one of my banking contacts yesterday regarding interest rates outlook and as an aside, his view on HGH.

They (the bank which btw is an international bank, not one of the locals) believe that the RBNZ has well and truly misread the weak state of the NZ economy and is well behind the curve. They are observing many very weak points already apparent in the economy (financial stress, retail spending, recession despite record net migration, weak property prices, declining tax take, increased unemployment despite record migration to Australia and big increases in insolvencies and receiverships) and are concerned that the RB will overdo using high interest rates to crunch inflation.

Especially when inflation is already heading lower (annualized March quarter was 2.4%) and will continue to go lower due to the above weak points. Domestic inflation being targeted by the RB is unlikely to come down in a big hurry given it's ever increasing local council rates, government charges and household servicing costs like insurance driving costs increases.

Net net, they believe the RB is going to have to cut rates sooner than later and cut sharply. He likened the RB to a drunken driver in charge of the monetary policy car driving along a windy road!

AS for HGH, his view (not the bank) is that buying Challenger Bank makes a lot of sense for one strong and compelling reason - access to cheaper funds courtesy of the Australian FCS deposit guarantee scheme. Australians do place their funds up to $250,000 with different banks to take advantage of the guarantee, say $250k with 4 banks than $1m with 1 bank. He thinks that's something which has been missed by many in the market.

[Waltzing]

 if the above banker is correct - thats a HARD LANDING 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/listen-live-finance-minister-nicola-willis-on-latest-ocr-decision/7GUJDGJUUNFU5K3Y3JYWZ3P3H4/

[Shareguy]

Found this interesting

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/why-former-apra-exec-geoff-summerhayes-is-targeting-reverse-mortgages-20240519-p5jeqr

[winner (n)]

Jeez CBA.ASX trading on a PE of 22 ...and brokers have them as a sell

If HGH had a PE of 22 shares would be about $2.60 ...and I'd probably be selling

Interesting article though

https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/is-it-wise-to-buy-cba-shares-at-their-record-high

Same rational applies to HGH ...buy at low multiples and get excessive returns etc

[Left Field]

175,0000 at $0.975 late Friday.

Maybe some news soon, like their shiny new CEO appointment..... or what they find in the Challenger bank cupboards etc.. or do we need to wait till August for their FY24 results announcement?

[raW tent Buffer]

I just bought in also. No lazy reptile will convince me otherwise.

[BlackPeter]

I just bought in also. No lazy reptile will convince me otherwise.

Welcome to the forum ... and cheers for throwing all your mana behind HGH ;

Not sure though, I understand the lazy reptile bit ... but maybe you could enlarge on which of HGH's many strengths convinced you to buy in?

[Shareguy]

Craig's have HGH as number 3 on current high conviction list income/defensive.

Say trading below fair value.

[snapiti]

Craig's have HGH as number 3 on current high conviction list income/defensive.

Say trading below fair value.

What's one and two on the list please

[raW tent Buffer]

Welcome to the forum ... and cheers for throwing all your mana behind HGH ;

Not sure though, I understand the lazy reptile bit ... but maybe you could enlarge on which of HGH's many strengths convinced you to buy in?

They have the same NZX code as my favorite dietary supplement.

It was a reference to LoungeLizard.

Heartland to the moon!

Joking aside I first bought in at the COVID dip, sold at the first CR and now consider it a good value buy for the long term. I managed to buy shares at 97c in the mid 5 figures. I bought because I like their acquisition of CB and the opportunities that presents. How that goes I'm excited to see.

Thanks for the posts all, was good to read through the comments both for and against dipping into HGH now, as with the other forum topics (coming from an unfortunate ATM holder at DCA ~$9).