SUM Summerset Group

[Basil]

Perhaps we should get back to discussing SUM's specific attributes and leave immigration stat's for the general retirement thread?

One thing that's garnered almost no airtime on either channel is SUM's prospects in Australia.  I believe they have 7 villages in progress at various stages over there. Three of the most interesting differences I think you will find between Australia and N.Z. is the saturation rate of these full facility villages which is very low over there and I suspect we are completely saturating demand at this point in time in N.Z.

Secondly, I believe the construction costs are materially lower, (let's be frank and admit that we are being price gouged on building material costs in N.Z.) and thirdly the difference between the average house price in Melbourne and the average 2-bedroom independent living unit is lower than the historical 70% that used to prevail here, (frankly the margin here is getting uncomfortable close) so they're affordable for Melboune retiree's.

In the long run I think SUM's business model has a long runway of growth in Australia and their slightly lower price point than RYM's competing villages there gives them an advantage.

All that said, the above will take time to come to fruition and I am taking all the talk that "real estate has turned a corner and we're set for growth next year" with a grain of salt and the very low unimputed dividends from this sector does not inspire me to jump back in until we have a confirmed new uptrend. 
When the time is right, I will reinvest in the one company in this sector who have earned my trust.

[KW]

My data comes DIRECTLY from the Customs Dept who track the daily passenger numbers through NZs airports.  Its not a mistake.  In comparison, the Dept of Statistics numbers comes from a computer model where it guesses the immigration number based on historical patterns.  It then corrects its estimate 16 months later by reconciling with passport data. 

Why would I apologise for publishing the Customs data?  You can go see for yourself if you don't believe me
https://www.stats.govt.nz/experimental/covid-19-data-portal/

  You cannot view this attachment.

[Ferg]

Connection to SUM: Immigration impacts the housing market which has a potential flow on effect into the RV sector including SUM.

In May and June the net immigration was negative when viewed for the year to date commencing 1 January.  Your earlier comment referenced KW's post from May.

Refer daily border movements from this source:
Source: https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/international-travel-provisional

NZ Stats own data when aggregated showed net negative immigration for 2023 year to date when viewed in May and June.

You owe KW an apology.  I am impressed KW found relevant source data that leads the official stats.  Nicely done KW.

Well, first lets not forget that it was you operating some months ago with absolutely wrong immigration numbers. You told anybody who wanted to listen that our net immigration is negative. Did you forget that already? KW, you are talking B/S and you don't even appologise for the mistakes you make.

Post #162:

Is that coming from the same source which told you in May (against all official statistics) that we will have a net immigration loss this year?

[BlackPeter]

My data comes DIRECTLY from the Customs Dept who track the daily passenger numbers through NZs airports.  Its not a mistake.  In comparison, the Dept of Statistics numbers comes from a computer model where it guesses the immigration number based on historical patterns.  It then corrects its estimate 16 months later by reconciling with passport data. 

Why would I apologise for publishing the Customs data?  You can go see for yourself if you don't believe me
https://www.stats.govt.nz/experimental/covid-19-data-portal/

Look - I don't care where your raw data came from, but they clearly either have been wrong or you interpreted them wrong (more likely) or you missed a handful of essential processing steps in the analysis.
I used the official numbers and they have been right.

Anyway, who cares, you  have been blatantly wrong with your prediction - and instead of admitting that and appologizing you keep digging.

Of course - department of statistics clearly must be wrong if they don't agree with your faulty predictions. How dare they not to use KW's proven wrong method? Shocking!

Funny though, that the end result (net immigration rising) aligned with what the department of statistics predicted, not with your predictions.

[BlackPeter]

Perhaps we should get back to discussing SUM's specific attributes and leave immigration stat's for the general retirement thread?

One thing that's garnered almost no airtime on either channel is SUM's prospects in Australia.  I believe they have 7 villages in progress at various stages over there. Three of the most interesting differences I think you will find between Australia and N.Z. is the saturation rate of these full facility villages which is very low over there and I suspect we are completely saturating demand at this point in time in N.Z.

Secondly, I believe the construction costs are materially lower, (let's be frank and admit that we are being price gouged on building material costs in N.Z.) and thirdly the difference between the average house price in Melbourne and the average 2-bedroom independent living unit is lower than the historical 70% that used to prevail here, (frankly the margin here is getting uncomfortable close) so they're affordable for Melboune retiree's.

In the long run I think SUM's business model has a long runway of growth in Australia and their slightly lower price point than RYM's competing villages there gives them an advantage.

All that said, the above will take time to come to fruition and I am taking all the talk that "real estate has turned a corner and we're set for growth next year" with a grain of salt and the very low unimputed dividends from this sector does not inspire me to jump back in until we have a confirmed new uptrend. 
When the time is right, I will reinvest in the one company in this sector who have earned my trust.

Good idea.

And yes, it appears tough enough to agree on a comparison of retirement village providers in NZ.

Australia is a different game - both RYM as well as SUM are competing there with a number of local providers (who know the game) and different retirement village models over there (e.g. INA - combining retirement villges and holiday homes, resident buys the house and only leases the place).

I suppose the NZ greenhorns in Australia might still learn the ropes how to deal with a much higher degreee of corruption including corrupt and powerful unions.

I am sure, this is not impossible, but clearly while it might open opportunities, it offers as well significant additional risk. So yes, I think a retirement provider without Australain baggage might well be an advantage. ARV and OCA start to look much brighter now, don't they?

[Basil]

SUM in its first 6 years grew underlying earnings from $15m in its first full year as a listed entity in 2012 to $99m in 2018, 6.5 times as much, driving the share price up a commensurate amount.  Puts to shame the lack of earnings growth of some of the others in their first 6 years operations as a listed entity.

[Administrator]

Hey all, this thread has gotten a bit off topic. I've made some deletions to keep things on topic but I'm happy to leave the tail end of the argument here so long as that is where it stops. Please continue any further (civil) debate on immigration statistics in another thread. Any questions flick me a message. Cheers.

[Basil]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/419678/404747.pdf

Solid Q3 sales result for SUM. 

[Buzz]

"Summerset Group and a2 Milk may move out of the MSCI Small Cap Index on Wednesday."

[Dolcile]

SUM share price up my than 4% on Friday.  Something afoot?

[winner (n)]

SUM share price up my than 4% on Friday.  Something afoot?

Funny things often happen on these rebalancing days

[winner (n)]

Good Q4 and annual numbers firvSUM

Scott more upbeat than usual ......that's good too

4Q23 METRICS – SALES OF OCCUPATION RIGHTS   

Summerset Group is pleased to report 360 sales for the quarter ending 31 December 2023, comprising 186 new sales and 174 resales. Total settlements for the quarter were 30% higher than Q4 2022 (277 total settlements). 

The Q4 2023 result was a record for both new sales and resales, and a significant contributor to Summerset also achieving a record full year result of 1,103 total settlements for the twelve months to 31 December 2023.   

Summerset CEO Scott Scoullar said this was an excellent result, especially in such a challenging market.   "This is a very pleasing result for both the quarter and the full year. The residential property market has been very slow and unpredictable at times but despite this we've not only continued to grow, we've also achieved record settlements.  "While the residential property market certainly has an influence on our business the drivers for residents to come to our villages including community, security and health don't change.

We've continued to see very high demand and we've managed to achieve great sales results in a very difficult macroeconomic environment.   "These record achievements are also a result of our strategic focus to target when and where we want to build our retirement villages. Our build programme can flex up and down to meet demand and with villages across all the main centres and most regions we are able to appeal to a large number of New Zealanders.   "Our villages are designed to give our residents an excellent standard of living with high quality homes set in communities with lots of greenspace, outdoor recreational facilities, beautiful landscaping and much more."

 Summerset completed and opened three main buildings throughout the year at Kenepuru (Wellington) in February, Bell Block (New Plymouth) in September, and Te Awa (Napier) in November. These buildings, which contain a mix of serviced apartments, care suites and memory care suites, saw Summerset release 309 units to the market to strong sales and pre-sales.   

This was in addition to welcoming the first residents at four new villages at Cambridge, Boulcott (Lower Hutt), Waikanae, and Milldale (Auckland).  The company has now grown to be home to more than 8,000 residents across New Zealand, with the first Australian residents moving into Cranbourne North (Victoria) in 1Q24.   "This is a major milestone for us, we were very pleased to have delivered the first 10 villas at Cranbourne North at the end of FY23 and we look forward to welcoming our Australian residents soon," said Mr Scoullar. 

While continuing to grow, delivering an exceptional customer experience that brings the best of life to residents continues to be at the heart of the company's philosophy and strategy. Summerset was pleased to see excellent resident satisfaction scores for the year, 96% for village residents, and 95% for care residents.   

Mr Scoullar said the company was optimistic for the year ahead, seeing positive signs that the residential property market is improving, and with strong levels of demand and pre-sales already.

[BlackPeter]

Good Q4 and annual numbers firvSUM

Scott more upbeat than usual ......that's good too

4Q23 METRICS – SALES OF OCCUPATION RIGHTS   

Summerset Group is pleased to report 360 sales for the quarter ending 31 December 2023, comprising 186 new sales and 174 resales. Total settlements for the quarter were 30% higher than Q4 2022 (277 total settlements). 

The Q4 2023 result was a record for both new sales and resales, and a significant contributor to Summerset also achieving a record full year result of 1,103 total settlements for the twelve months to 31 December 2023.   

Summerset CEO Scott Scoullar said this was an excellent result, especially in such a challenging market.   "This is a very pleasing result for both the quarter and the full year. The residential property market has been very slow and unpredictable at times but despite this we've not only continued to grow, we've also achieved record settlements.  "While the residential property market certainly has an influence on our business the drivers for residents to come to our villages including community, security and health don't change.

We've continued to see very high demand and we've managed to achieve great sales results in a very difficult macroeconomic environment.   "These record achievements are also a result of our strategic focus to target when and where we want to build our retirement villages. Our build programme can flex up and down to meet demand and with villages across all the main centres and most regions we are able to appeal to a large number of New Zealanders.   "Our villages are designed to give our residents an excellent standard of living with high quality homes set in communities with lots of greenspace, outdoor recreational facilities, beautiful landscaping and much more."

 Summerset completed and opened three main buildings throughout the year at Kenepuru (Wellington) in February, Bell Block (New Plymouth) in September, and Te Awa (Napier) in November. These buildings, which contain a mix of serviced apartments, care suites and memory care suites, saw Summerset release 309 units to the market to strong sales and pre-sales.   

This was in addition to welcoming the first residents at four new villages at Cambridge, Boulcott (Lower Hutt), Waikanae, and Milldale (Auckland).  The company has now grown to be home to more than 8,000 residents across New Zealand, with the first Australian residents moving into Cranbourne North (Victoria) in 1Q24.   "This is a major milestone for us, we were very pleased to have delivered the first 10 villas at Cranbourne North at the end of FY23 and we look forward to welcoming our Australian residents soon," said Mr Scoullar. 

While continuing to grow, delivering an exceptional customer experience that brings the best of life to residents continues to be at the heart of the company's philosophy and strategy. Summerset was pleased to see excellent resident satisfaction scores for the year, 96% for village residents, and 95% for care residents.   

Mr Scoullar said the company was optimistic for the year ahead, seeing positive signs that the residential property market is improving, and with strong levels of demand and pre-sales already.

Great sales number - actually, I see that they had in 2023 more unit sales (1103) than in any 12 month window before ... this is an ATH! The closest 12 monthwindow before was ending 2021 Q2 with 1066 sales. Lets bring out the champaign, shall we?

Obviously - I do see this as an indicator for the whole industry and look forward to the reporting laggards OCA, RYM and ARV ...

Good things will happen in 2024 ...

[Basil]

Without any doubt in my mind the best of breed by such a long way this thoroughbred makes all the others look like lame donkey's.

[Mos]

Market getting less pessimistic about RVs after SUM sales update - both SUM and ARV solid today.