FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare Corp

[KW]

The chart is looking pretty sick.  Break of support/failure at resistance level ($23), a death cross (50 day MA below the 200 day MA) and a break of the 200 day MA that is continuing.  That would be me, gone, as I dont hang around to find out why.

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[Cod]

Agreed, next stop testing 18.00 to 22.00 channel.

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[Left Field]

Good TA thank you Cod and KW.

Much hinging on the ASM update scheduled for 29 Aug.   

[Left Field]

ASM guidance update....Talk of growing revenue and margins.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/417250

Market not impressed at first glance.

[Shareguy]

Yes it looks like it's dependent on 2H. less clear around momentum for the Hospital segment, which looks to be tracking a little softer (on softer device sales)

[Shareguy]

Found this Interesting from investor day.

Mexico's wage inflation has been 40% for the past 3 years (the cost to manufacture in Mexico is now 85% of NZ) and the President plans to raise wages further. 


FPH Homecare: The Evora Full has pioneered a new category of sleep apnoea mask, with performance/seal the same as a full-face mask; but with a much smaller size. High demand for the Evora Full mask has necessitated FPH opening a new manufacturing line in Mexico, with suggestions that the Evora's popularity is reminiscent of the 2013-16 cycle during which the Simplus mask continued to take share. A key driver of the lack of myAirvo uptake could be the absence of reimbursement vs alternative treatments...requiring patients to pay out of pocket for a device which is sold to DMEs at US$ 5-10k.

[BlackPeter]

Are we there yet?

This is one of the companies always looking to dear ... and subsequently I am rarely holding it. Still - a fascinating and well managed company, and I can't stop myself watching it.

Just looking at the fundamentals: forward PE (using analyst forecasts for the next three years) would be 41, backward PE (based on average earnings over the last 10 years) is 53. SP came down that much, but still looks too dear, even if we consider the forward earnings CAGR of 4 (solid, but far from stellar).

Even the people paid for being optimistic think its still too dear (or just fair value): shareclarity (I know ...) has a DCF of $19.15 and - analyst consensus is $22.18.

Hard to make a convincing case for buying at this level, but I suspect at some stage people will just starting to buy (they always do), no matter whether the fundamentals do justify it - or not.

If we put a line under the last 10 years of SP growth, than it looks like SP came pretty much back to normal. Only question now is - is it going to swing under, before it recovers (it normally does) ... or did we reach the bottom already?



I won't hold my breath and probably just keep watching.

[Left Field]

The SP's of FPH and ResMed (ASX) had both been partially beaten down on the perceived risk that new anti-obesity drugs may have on the sleep apnea patient airflow devices.

However ResMed this week suggested "the work that's being done in the pharmaceutical industry right now with obesity drugs will be a net positive for patient flow and patient growth in sleep apnea, COPD and for ResMed overall".

Seems that like cholesterol and blood pressure pharmaceuticals before it, that GLP-1 weight loss drugs may see a new population of patients, who may have never entered the healthcare system, or engaged with a doctor.

"After they go through this screening process, those with sleep apnea that otherwise would not have been in ResMed's pipeline may be offered a ResMed device."

This info from Ophir's letter to Investors here; https://www.ophiram.com.au/letter-to-investors-october-5/

[Left Field]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422577

Overview of key results for the first half of the 2024 financial year
• 12% increase in net profit after tax to $107.3 million, 22% increase in constant currency.
• 16% increase in operating revenue to $803.7 million, 16% increase in constant currency.
• 11% increase in Hospital operating revenue to $487.5 million, 11% increase in constant currency.
• 19% increase in constant currency for new applications consumables (products used in noninvasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow and surgical applications) accounting for 70% of Hospital consumables revenue.
• 26% increase in Homecare operating revenue to $314.4 million, 25% increase in constant currency.
• 28% increase in constant currency for OSA masks and accessories revenue.
• Investment in R&D was 12% of revenue, or $96.9 million.
• 3% increase in interim dividend to 18.0 cps (H1 FY23: 17.5 cps).

[Breezy]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422577

Overview of key results for the first half of the 2024 financial year
• 12% increase in net profit after tax to $107.3 million, 22% increase in constant currency.
• 16% increase in operating revenue to $803.7 million, 16% increase in constant currency.
• 11% increase in Hospital operating revenue to $487.5 million, 11% increase in constant currency.
• 19% increase in constant currency for new applications consumables (products used in noninvasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow and surgical applications) accounting for 70% of Hospital consumables revenue.
• 26% increase in Homecare operating revenue to $314.4 million, 25% increase in constant currency.
• 28% increase in constant currency for OSA masks and accessories revenue.
• Investment in R&D was 12% of revenue, or $96.9 million.
• 3% increase in interim dividend to 18.0 cps (H1 FY23: 17.5 cps).

Strong result in tough times and increase in divvy to boot.

[winner (n)]

Beat the street....good

[Shareguy]

Good result

Craig's like it

Revenue of $804m was above Guidance for $790m provided at the August ASM with Hospital growing 11% constant CCY including 19% in consumables. Homecare revenue was +25% (+28% in OSA). NPAT if $107m (+12%) was above the top end of $95-105m guidance. FX movements which boosted the result by c$3-4m. The 2H24 outlook is inline with consensus with FY24 revenue of $1.7B and NPAT of $257m (Guidance $250-260m). FPH re-iterated guidance to get gross margin back to 65% in 3-4 years, a key focus for investors. Ridgewell sees room for improvement but doubts it will recover to that level so soon. That said, he sees FPH's revenue growth outlook as robust in both divisions (driven by new product launches), which should continue to underwrite solid improvement in revenue and NPAT....expect FPH to trade modestly better today –

[Breezy]

So much for these so called wonder weight loss drugs having any meaningful affect on FPH as a certain horned scaremongerer at the other place was highlighting. Most have now been withdrawn from the market due to serious side effects including 2 from Pfizer (No surprises there)

[Left Field]

Bit of an upgrade. Looking good.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428415

[winner (n)]

Bit of an upgrade. Looking good.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428415

NZD had a lot to do with it

Not much growth this year .....wonder what F25 will bring

Analysts seem to think $330m profit in F25=and $400m in F26

Good increase from this years $260m eh