DGL.ASX

[Shareguy]

I dunno.

I think as I age (and hopefully mature a little bit) I am increasingly focused on high quality companies and high conviction ideas. Ones that I understand and appreciate the way they operate, and don't get overly surprised by.  My core listed equities portfolio is built on that basis, but I do reserve around 20% for emerging or relatively more speculative opportunities, which I'd put DGL into.  I suppose I see some caution signs at DGL...it's a roll up, over earnt possibly this last year, simon henry himself, depends a bit on future acquisitions per KW, etc. Could well settle and this is a good buying opportunity, especially if with the benifit of time and a proven track record show it has some stable/very quasi storage infrastructure capabilities (IE in the same way that bulk liquid storage and terminals went from trading at 5x EBITDA to being re rerated to near infrastructure multiples over the last 20 years, or allied healthcare being re rated to near healthcare multiples) but I am increasingly trying not to catch every fish, not worry about the small but fast ones that get away, and focus on and take satisfaction in catching the handful I run at. 

I agree this is highly speculative and I would not recommend to anyone unless there prepared to loose the lot.  Part of my car crash/punting portfolio.

[KW]

it has some stable/very quasi storage infrastructure capabilities (IE in the same way that bulk liquid storage and terminals went from trading at 5x EBITDA to being re rerated to near infrastructure multiples over the last 20 years, or allied healthcare being re rated to near healthcare multiples) 

I think you might be getting to the heart of it.  Last year 30% of profits were derived from property revaluations, this year its 50%.  Is DGL a chemicals business or a property holding company? It would appear that Henry is doing the multiple rerating himself instead of waiting for the market, and the rollup is of property and not businesses.  Which brings one to ask "on what basis are these revaluations being made?".  There are substantial remediation costs associated with land used for heavy chemicals, they shouldnt be valued the same as land used for non-chemical purposes.

[arekaywhy]

Looks like Mr Henry had a lazy half mil to throw back into the company

Was this to halt the drop?

Was this to make everyone think every thing is fine just fine, "look at the directors putting skin in the game"?

[Shareguy]

Analyst reports are out. Average of 3 is A$3.13

[Gerald]

Analyst reports are out. Average of 3 is A$3.13

Sorry I do not get why people still follow things that have been proven time and again to have no relationship to returns. If you follow the recommendations of almost all analysts, you will underperform.

You will have better odds counting the seagulls or looking in some entrails.

I have personally found analyst reports just to be an easy coping mechanism to justify holding onto a losing position.

[arekaywhy]

I looked at some entrails recently...didn't help

[Recaster]

Hi,just introducing myself as just joined. First post.

A member here asked me to post my analysis of DGL Group here which I had posted to another forum.

https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/basic-analysis-dgl-group-dglasx

Hope it's of interest.

[Shareguy]

https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/09/09/germany-adblue-yara-intl

[Shareguy]

https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/switzer-tv/why-are-copper-nickel-and-lithium-stocks-on-the-rise-3-growth-companies-dgl-ppe-smp/

[Ferg]

The DGL part starts at 32:32. An interesting perspective on stock holdings.

https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/switzer-tv/why-are-copper-nickel-and-lithium-stocks-on-the-rise-3-growth-companies-dgl-ppe-smp/

[arekaywhy]

certainly different to the wokesters over this side of the pond that's for sure

Small increase to my holding, on the basis that it doesn't look as bad as I thought it did a few days ago.  Still only a minor/morbid interest holding for me though

[Ricky Bobby]

http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old...091850000&ppv= Market seems happy with outlook number.... $70-72 million EBITDA

[Shareguy]

Oversold. Market like it.

[Shareguy]

Thought this was good

https://www.bayleycapital.com/dangerous-goods-logistics-a-chance-to-monopolise-a-40b-industry/

Bayley capital said today fair value $3.50 off 15 multiple on FY23 EBITDA $70m

[Shareguy]

One of Bell Potters top picks for 2023

We continue to remain constructive
on the vertical that DGL Group (DGL) is developing across the back end chemicals lifecycle – which includes manufacturing, logistics and recycling – as we think in terms of breadth, DGL is unrivalled by any Trans-Tasman competitor.
In our view, improved earnings visibility and FY23e cash flow targets provided by management at the company AGM are both potential re-rate catalysts
for DGL, with the current pull-back in share price an opportunity for investors to buy a founder-led business that has a potential multi-year growth horizon through industry consolidation. DGL
is currently priced on a forward EV/ EBITDA of ~9x with >$150m in debt headroom and property recycling optionality for further acquisitions.
Buy, Price Target $2.25

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18T_iZ5zWF2_j8xbHbluaVmiK5uaovawm/view?usp=drivesdk

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