EBO-Ebos

[Stockplaymaker]

Market overreacts. Smart money accumulates while fear headlines dominate.
A 15+ year holder buying back in after reducing exposure says more than any broker note.
When quality businesses trade below historical multiples and still throw off solid dividends, patience usually gets rewarded. Curious to see who else is quietly building positions here before sentiment flips 👀

[Shareguy]

Nice write up but one thing I don't 100% agree with is using EBITDA.  This ignores the growth in issued shares.  You mentioned "bolt on acquisitions" but this was not free for shareholders given there was a dilution impact on EPS for the new share issues.  The share count grew by ~3% per annum over the past 10 years which tempers the 10% EBITDA growth slightly....plus debts have almost tripled over that timeframe (and interest expense will have increased) - hence the reason I prefer NPAT rather than EBITDA which is an "all in" number.

I agree Ferg.

2015 to 2025 had NPAT growth of 7.3 percent growth over the 10 years. If you exclude 2025 (CW loss) you have NPAT growth of 11.1 percent.

[Shareguy]

Market overreacts. Smart money accumulates while fear headlines dominate.
A 15+ year holder buying back in after reducing exposure says more than any broker note.
When quality businesses trade below historical multiples and still throw off solid dividends, patience usually gets rewarded. Curious to see who else is quietly building positions here before sentiment flips 👀

Welcolme to stocktalk. This has never been much of a dividend stock but look at the return now. Hopefully we will be rewarded while we pick up a pretty good divi along the way. When the market turns this quality stock should bounce.

[winner (n)]

Ebos has become a market pariah - going back to the poorly communicated result last year. The communication was abysmal


Once a market pariah redemption can take a long time .... maybe never return to its  past glory

Stock market pariahs in New Zealand frequently become value traps and deeply unloved companies here often suffer from structural challenges rather than just temporary mispricing.

So don't let 'hope' cloud your judgment

[Shareguy]

Ebos has become a market pariah - going back to the poorly communicated result last year. The communication was abysmal


Once a market pariah redemption can take a long time .... maybe never return to its  past glory

Stock market pariahs in New Zealand frequently become value traps and deeply unloved companies here often suffer from structural challenges rather than just temporary mispricing.

So don't let 'hope' cloud your judgment

Tru Winner, but we have hope with every share, don't we...Nothing is guaranteed.

[winner (n)]

Thought I'd update this chart

When the likes of long term fan lorriana gives up that's the signal the blue line could go down further or at best will flatten out from here

-You cannot view this attachment. that's how market pariahs behave

[Basil]

In post 212 I noted a 10 year EPS CAGR of only 5.1% (7 years historical and consensus of 3 years forward forecast).  To my mind that encapsulates all the projected growth that's forecasted and is a long enough timeframe to dilute the loss of the CW Australia contract to a pretty realistic average level.  There's prospects for the loss of CW N.Z. and other business risks so I'm not sure there's any logical basis to try and make a claim that EPS growth is anything other than 5.1%.

The forward metrics based on consensus of 8 analysts look about right to me for this  quite modest EPS growth rate and I think fair value based on fundamental analysis is about $20 where the stock is currently priced..  https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/EBOS-GROUP-LIMITED-6494459/finances/
For a chart point of view the clear downtrend remains and its very dangerous to buy shares in a downtrend.  In my opinion, anyone using TA as a tool in their investment toolkit should wait for the clear bottoming pattern in the chart to de-risk their entry.  There's no sign of this bottoming out yet.