EBO-Ebos

[Umpah]

Me too
Ditto

[Shareguy]

I'm still adding

[Basil]

I bought some today

Probably gonna regret it.

Craig's research almost as fraught as the Dunedin crowd

What does KW say about drinking and buying in a downtrend ?

And that's after the bean counters on here have pointed out the EPS CAGR is a very modest 5%.

[Left Field]

SP has been beaten down..... will this result help turn the corner?

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/468129/attachment/463152/468129-463152.pdf

[lorraina]

I doubt it.Both NPAT and EPS are down on last year.

Financial highlights (all $ figures are in AUD, and comparisons are made against HY25)
Period ended 31 December HY26 HY25 Change
Underlying results
Revenue 6,768 5,991 13.0%
GOR 868 799 8.6%
EBITDA 300 291 3.2%
Net Profit After Tax 125 131 (4.3%)
Earnings per share - cps 61.4c 67.5c (9.0%)
Underlying EBITDA (%) 4.4% 4.9% (50 bps)
Leverage ratio1
(x) 2.2x 1.9x2 0.3x
ROCE (%) 12.9% 13.3% (40bps)
Statutory results
Revenue 6,768 5,991 13.0%
EBITDA 303 276 9.7%
Net Profit After Tax 125 110 13.0%
Earnings per share - cps 61.1c 56.9c 7.4%

[winner (n)]

Net Profit After Tax 125 110 13.0%

NPAT up 13.0%

That's pretty good

[Gerald]

But underlying NPAT down 4% and negative $24m FCF. So many metrics to look at...

Maybe we are past the worst, 2H guidance would imply that (or shades of A2?  )

[winner (n)]

But underlying NPAT down 4% and negative $24m FCF. So many metrics to look at...

Maybe we are past the worst, 2H guidance would imply that (or shades of A2?  )

Should add $31m of lease payments to your FCF making it negative $55m

Even Operating Cash Flow of $16m is pathetic when $6.6billion comes in from customers.

Something not right

[Ferg]

NPAT as a % of sales is 1.84% which is almost the same as the average for the last 16 years which is 1.88%.  After a couple of "spikes" in FY23 & FY24 of 2.15% and 2.07%, EBO has reverted to the mean so to speak.

Share count is up 0.9% for the HY vs FY25 - this is lower than the historical 3% p.a. but the ongoing DRIP and issuance of shares for acquisitions is creating a headwind for EPS.

The FCF was low due to a massive +$156m increase in receivables, but this should reverse in H2.

You cannot view this attachment.

Disclosure: still not holding, but looking for a good entry price once I clarify any risks around the CW contract for NZ.

[Shareguy]

Two issues coming up to consider

1/ The NZ Chemist Warehouse supply contract. It is highly likely EBO will lose this contract at 31 December 2026.

2/ Craig's has assessed EBOS exposure to higher fuel costs. EBO spent $172m on freight in FY25 with third parties (e.g. Freightways and DHL), mainly to transport medicines from its distribution centres to pharmacies and hospitals across Australia and NZ. Around 20-30% of the cost of freight is fuel, and EBOS does not appear to hedge its exposure. With the price of oil up c.50% over the past month, major freight companies have swiftly moved to pass through higher fuel prices to customers via increased fuel surcharges. Ridgewell estimates EBO's monthly freight costs have increased - or will very shortly increase - c.12-15%, or $2.0-2.5m per month (to $16-16.5m per month). While the impact on EBO's EBITDA so far is not material relative to FY26 guidance of $615-635m, if fuel prices remain at current elevated levels for the rest of FY26 (i.e. until June 30), and EBOS is not able to mitigate, this equates to a $8-10m impact on EBITDA (1.3-1.6% downgrade vs FY26 guidance) and $6-7m impact on NPAT (c.2-3% downgrade vs FY26 consensus).
Accordingly, Ridgewell has downgraded his FY26F EBITDA.

[Basil]

My daughter told me this morning she was buying diesel for her truck in February for as little as $1.29 on discount days.  Yesterday she had to pay $3.85, nearly triple the price 6 weeks later !  WOW !

[Left Field]

My daughter told me this morning she was buying diesel for her truck in February for as little as $1.29 on discount days.  Yesterday she had to pay $3.85, nearly triple the price 6 weeks later !  WOW !

Somewhat related......EBO downgrade today citing "elevated fuel prices".....   other companies likely to  be thinking along similar lines.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/471313

[Mr Cashflow]

Somewhat related......EBO downgrade today citing "elevated fuel prices".....   other companies likely to  be thinking along similar lines.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/471313

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economist-gareth-kiernan-warns-fuel-prices-likely-to-stay-above-3-a-litre-into-2027/74XFC3OX4JCDZJNGFT3BZW7X3Y/

Many companies might hit as a result of high cost.