EBO-Ebos

[Basil]

I am curious....what was the market expecting?

EBITDA consensus was $648m  https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/EBOS-GROUP-LIMITED-6494459/finances/
10% miss.

[Shareguy]

Craig's thoughts

STOP PRESS – EBO has reported FY25 uEBITDA of $585m, slightly below the midpoint of guidance of $575-600m but 2% below consensus and 5% below CIPe. While EBO's revenue was in line with our above consensus estimates, driven by strong PBS spend for the core Pharmacy wholesale business, and GOR margin was also healthy (if slightly below estimates), operating costs were higher than expected. This may partly reflect timing of the full benefits of EBO's cost out programme being deferred more to FY26, with EBO still confident in achieving its $25-50m run rate target by the end of FY26, an outcome we had however expected sooner given EBO's strong progress in 1H25. Even so, EBO's FY26 guidance for uEBITDA to grow 7% at the mid-point is 6% below consensus (comprised of the 2% miss in FY25 and a further 4% miss in FY26) and 7% below CIPe notwithstanding a previously unannounced acquisition (i.e. so the underlying miss is larger), with EBO also talking to a more competitive environment in the pharmacy wholesale business and consumer softness impacting animal care

Disc/ not currently holding

[Umpah]

8 September 2025 NZX/ASX Code: EBO EBOS to be added to
S&P/ASX200 Index
Makes a change from HLG posts maybe EBO should do a share split

[winner (n)]

EBO shareprice having a bit of struggle breaking through the $30 resistance. Still in dog box from what appeared to be a 'disappointing' result. They didn't do a good presentation of the results and lost the opportunity to highlight the growth potential. No wonder the market packed a sad.

They'll be back on track soon and share price will head back to $40 ples.

I asked AI what Forbar thought of Ebos. Jeez what a rave ...a BUY on it.

Asked AI what Forbar thought of EBO. Seems a good rave -

Here's AI report -

Forsyth Barr's most recent price target for Ebos shares is NZ$37.25, following an upgrade to an "Outperform" rating from "Neutral" in September 2025. This is based on the firm's view that the company is a solid entry point due to its current valuation and diverse earnings, despite some risks

The rating was upgraded after a period where the stock's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio dropped to multi-year lows, creating what Forsyth Barr sees as a solid entry point.

The analysts believe the company's earnings are more diversified than ever and that its return on capital remains robust, despite resetting expectations for the 2026 financial year. They also note that Ebos' organic growth rate is above historical levels and that the company is well-positioned for future growth through acquisitions

[Waltzing]

Our AI is not convinced by your AI and thinks its hallucinating...

[Shareguy]

Craigs latest is $40.68.  My broker says the number one buy currently on the NZX.

A quality stock at a reasonable valuation is how I see it currently.

 

[Waltzing]

No AI says rubbish!!! but the some text software searches lately had to be done by hand...and the mark one eyeball..

[Waltzing]

The problem with AI is that is built to give you a solution even if its made up...

Those reports from the brokers should not be general AI... You have to check everything it does.. you go from being a creator to being an auditor...

[Waltzing]

Ai is KFC... but you can mine it for the gold... now this stock fell of a cliff... maybe it a trade as it bounces? if enough people believe in the company it could be an induced bounce.. dollar or two.. and becomes a trade able stock..

[Shareguy]

From FY26 FB forecast a three-year EPS CAGR of +10%.
EBO's de-rating to ~20x 12-month forward PE creates a solid entry point I think. This is below its 10-year average despite significant positive business changes (higher earnings growth and greater diversification). Its PE is now at multi-year lows relative to the NZX median.

Up to 2024 the 10 year CAGR has been over 10%pa. If we look at the loss of the CW contract as a new base I'm picking that with the diversification and additional acquisitions that there is no reason for this not to continue.

A quality buisiness that in my opinion is a good addition for long term holders.

Disc/ have been buying on weakness and one of my larger positions again.

[winner (n)]

From FY26 FB forecast a three-year EPS CAGR of +10%.
EBO's de-rating to ~20x 12-month forward PE creates a solid entry point I think. This is below its 10-year average despite significant positive business changes (higher earnings growth and greater diversification). Its PE is now at multi-year lows relative to the NZX median.

Up to 2024 the 10 year CAGR has been over 10%pa. If we look at the loss of the CW contract as a new base I'm picking that with the diversification and additional acquisitions that there is no reason for this not to continue.

A quality buisiness that in my opinion is a good addition for long term holders.

Disc/ have been buying on weakness and one of my larger positions again.

I concur with all that....even though quite a few think it's still very overvalued and won't return to strong growth again.

I see sales growth and improved margins in the future

I think we'll do well and people will look back and say jeez sub $30 was really cheap.

[Shareguy]

Good to see insider buying

$100k from a Director

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/462636/attachment/456677/462636-456677.pdf

[Shareguy]

Ebos under $27 a five year low. Well I could not resist.

Disc/ Now my largest position on the NZX.

[winner (n)]

With you all the way guy.

This chart says it all

Red line (EPS) goes out to 2027 with conservative forecasts

You cannot view this attachment.

[entrep]

Craigs latest is $40.68.  My broker says the number one buy currently on the NZX.

Not trying to be a dick, but I recall one of your previous posts long ago that your broker's main pick at the time was STU?