HMY-Harmoney

[afc029871]

Looking at the last page of the report it is stated that Trim was commissioned to write the report.
Harmoney has already forecast $10 for 2026 in February. I thought to forecast ahead at that time it was conservative. With signs of the markets improving in NZ and growth in Aus the company does seemed poised for an acceleration in its growth.

[Hectorplains]

More positive press

[Cod]

FY 25 Annual report out

ASX:HMY - FY25 Annual Report

You cannot view this attachment.

[Cod]

MST Access Update: Hitting Escape Velocity

https://investorhub.harmoney.com.au/activity-updates/mst-access-update-hitting-escape-velocity

We have upgraded our EPS forecasts by 14.1%, 18.6%, and 16.7% for FY26,
FY27, and FY28 respectively. The revisions reflect the FY26 Cash NPAT
guidance upgrade and higher assumptions for risk-adjusted income and
originations, supported by stronger evidence of Stellare 2.0 efficiency. As a
result, our valuation increases to $2.70 (from $2.08).

[winner (n)]

As percy pointed out on other channel their DCF Valuation - June 2026
We utilise a DCF Valuation methodology as detailed in the below table. Our valuation for HMY moves to $2.70 per share, (previously $2.08 per share).

WOW....BUY...BUY

[Cod]

TRIM CAPITAL: Accelerating Performance

Read Trim Capital Group's research report on Harmoney (ASX: HMY), published on 22 August 2025.

Lifting Valuation, Altering Forecasts
Changing forecasts: Our Cash EPS estimates rise by +0.1% for FY26E and fall by 2.4%
for FY27E while introducing our detailed FY28 estimates for the first time.
Valuation suggests 220% upside: Our primary valuation method is a general
residual income model and produces a valuation of $2,53, up from the prior $2.27
after incorporating the rvor result and the above earnings forecasts changes.

[Cod]

HGH has now sold all of its Harmoney shares. I assume this is what has been driving and holding the SP at current levels even with a buy back in place. It looks like HGH divested at 0.80 cents for 9 million shares approx.

[Hectorplains]

HGH has now sold all of its Harmoney shares. I assume this is what has been driving and holding the SP at current levels even with a buy back in place. It looks like HGH divested at 0.80 cents for 9 million shares approx.

Am I being cynical in thinking that the buy back has been very convenient for HGH as means of an exit for them? 

[Plata]

It probably helped them get a better price but normally the buyback daily announcements involve pretty small quantities.

[Cod]

Investor presentation highlights. 30-10-2026

https://investorhub.harmoney.com.au/announcements/7235551

Loan originations increased by 15% in Australia and by 50% in New Zealand with New Zealand now also benefiting from Stellare 2.0 following its implementation in June 2025.

[lorraina]

31 October 2025
Platform for Growth
Lafitani Sotiriou,    Senior Analyst
lafitani.sotiriou@mstemerging.com.au
NEED TO KNOW
Xavier Romanin-Green,    Associate Analyst
FY26 Cash NPAT was reaffirmed, targeting $12m (+111% vs pcp).
xavier.romanin-green@mstemerging.com.au
Loan originations increased >50% in New Zealand, the geography
now benefitting from the implementation of Stellare 2.0.
Risk-adjusted  income  ratio,  a  key  metric  for  the  company,
increased to 6.5% (+130bps vs pcp).
Another solid operational quarter for Harmoney, reaffirming its FY26 guidance
of $12m in cash NPAT, with a key metric, risk adjusted income ratio, reaching
6.5%. Stellare 2.0 continues to drive margin expansion, operating leverage,
and strong credit performance. New Zealand has benefited from its recent
Harmoney  Corp  Limited  provides  online  secured  and
Stellare 2.0 implementation (June 2025), achieving a >50% loan origination
unsecured personal loans in Australia and New Zealand.
increase.  Net  Interest  Margin  expanded  to  10.3%,  and  portfolio  quality
The  company's  personal  loans  are  used  for  various
remained solid (90+ day arrears of 0.77%), with Cost-to-income ratio also
purposes,    including    debt  consolidation,    home
remained staying strong at 19%.
improvement, wedding, car, holiday, education, business,
and medical expenses. It operates Stellare, a marketing
Harmoney remains well positioned for growth with $35m in available cash
platform.  www.harmoney.co.nz
reserves and a total warehouse credit capacity of ~$1bn. The company has
guided that it expects to use $7.5m of its available cash reserves to refinance
Valuation   A$2.75  (from A$2.70)
an existing corporate debt facility, reducing the drawn balance to $15m on
materially improved terms. Coupled with the company's capacity for growth,
Current price   A$0.93
Stellare  2.0  provides  a  platform  that  enables  delivery  of  that  growth.
Market cap   A$96.8m
Harmoney recently launching its secured car loan product which leverages
Stellare 2.0's modern, agile platform designed for product innovation. This
Available Cash   A$35m
follows guidance from the company's FY25 annual report which flagged the
re-vamped  secured  car  loan  product  as  the  first  of  many  features  and
products that would leverage Stellare 2.0.
Upcoming Catalysts / Next News
Investment Thesis
Period
The  technology  advantage  of  Stellare  2.0     underpins  faster,  fairer  loan
FY26   Guidance: $12m Cash NPAT
pricing and forms a high barrier to entry for competitors. Stellare 2.0 also
FY26   Guidance: $900m+ loan book
enables the potential for Harmoney to bring new products to market quicker,
FY26   Guidance: Risk adjusted income ~6%
supporting future diversification of revenue . Continuous platform innovation
FY26   Agentic lending
has enhanced Harmoney's ability to scale efficiently .
FY26+   Further feature & product innovation
FY26+   Capacity to facilitate growth
Positioned to scale materially over the coming years.    Harmoney currently
has  ~0.3%  share  of  the  Australian  personal  lending  market,  providing
significant whitespace. Repeat customer monetisation, margin tailwinds, and
Share Price (A$)
further cost efficiency are key drivers of expanding returns on equity.
Funding  &  liquidity  position  supports  growth  runway:     Harmoney  has
~$1bn in warehouse capacity, backed by three of the Big Four banks, and
limited equity capital required for book expansion. Its balance sheet is also
well positioned with ~$35m in available cash.
Risks & Valuation
We have increased our EPS by 5.5%, 2.1%, and 1.2% for FY26, FY27 and
FY28 respectively. The changes are primarily driven by HMY's update that its
existing corporate debt facility will be refinanced ($7.5m reduction), a pivot in
reallocating  capital  towards  paying  down  the  facility  (decreased  buyback
Source: FactSet, MST Access
assumption), and a marginal increase in immediate NIM estimates with the
strong  quarter.  We  note  that  EPS  adjustments  on  an  absolute  basis  are
small.  Following  the  changes,  our  valuation  moves  to  $2.75  (previously
$
This report has been prepared and issued by the named analyst of MST Access in consideration of a fee payable by:    Harmoney Corp (HMY.AX)
Report prepared by MST Access, a registered business name of MST Financial Services Limited ABN 54 617 475 180 AFSL 500 557.
mstaccess.com.au   

[winner (n)]

Jeez - valuation $2.75 ... prob A$ as well

BUY THIS FOR UNDER A BUCK BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE

[Plata]

I'm inclined to think this one has run up as far as it will go until they give FY27 guidance. Doesn't really add up the idea of this being such a steal, insane value, can't go wrong, yet this year insiders have been net sellers by FAR.

[lorraina]

TRIM CAPITAL: Cash NPAT to exceed guidance, again (ASX:HMY).- 9 December 2025

Read Trim Capital Group's research report below on Harmoney Corp (ASX:HMY): Cash NPAT to exceed guidance, again.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Cash NPAT to exceed guidance, again

Harmoney has partially paid down and refinanced their corporate debt, which is expected to lower funding costs and benefit Cash NPAT. Our forecast revisions imply they will exceed FY26 Cash NPAT target. Our updated valuation is at $2.72.

Key Takeaways
Corporate debt refinancing: Harmoney has paid down $7.5m of its corporate debt and refinanced the remaining A$15.0m through a revolving corporate debt facility with one of Australia's leading "Big-4" banks. The new facility has a 3-year term, lower interest rate, and market-standard financial covenants with no equity or convertible component attached.

Cash NPAT improvement: We expect that the refinancing will lower funding costs by ~A$1.1m annually. This adjustment has a material impact on our risk-adjusted income and Cash NPAT forecasts, now expecting A$12.9m for FY26. This means that HMY is poised to exceed its FY26 Cash NPAT target of A$12.0m.

Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation suggests 218% upside: Our primary valuation method is a general residual income model and produces a valuation of $2.72, up by +4.5% from the prior $2.60 due to our forecast revisions, particularly on lower funding costs due to the refinancing of corporate debt. Our diluted cash EPS changes are FY26: +5%, FY27: +7%, FY28: +6%.

[Hectorplains]

Director has been buying also, not massive amounts but another positive sentiment.