OCA - Oceania Healthcare

[Untamed]

Why don't those of you who have zero belief in this company, just start a new "OCA bagging thread" and leave this one for those of us who do.

Yes, repurposing stock for other uses is always a good strategy for stock you can't sell.  I do genuinely wonder with more than 4 years of unsold care suites whether some of those should be repurposed as cheap independent living units ?  I also wonder if the old care villages that are ostensibly breaking even and giving no return on capital, or even making a small loss, if they can't sell them maybe they could be repurposed as emergency housing or tarted up and sold as really cheap ILU units ?  Plenty of strategic thinking for the new CEO to focus on and really hope he does rather than encouraging furtherance of the ESG focus that seems to be becoming quite pervasive at OCA.

Emergency housing would fit well with their BELIEVE IN BETTER culture

[Breezy]

[/quote]

Why don't those of you who have zero belief in this company, just start a new "OCA bagging thread" and leave this one for those of us who do.

They obviously thought today would be good fishing, I know its hard not to bite when the bait looks so enticing, trouble is it leaves a bitter taste.

[Basil]

Sour pusses...was just shooting the breeze because I'm bored with waiting for the share price to gain traction.

[Greekwatchdog]

Basil, that's not likely to happen until after they announce the Full Year Result in May, unless of course they stun us all with a Investor Update which is not likely based on history

[Buzz]

Sour pusses...was just shooting the breeze because I'm bored with waiting for the share price to gain traction.

C'mon mate, you've been slagging OCA for years and now that you've recently got some bonds and some shares (but not rescinded any of your other thoroughly and extensively disparaging comments), you post that you're bored with the SP not gaining traction. Gee, let's focus on what's really important, it should be obvious soon and will be reported. Sales, sales, sales imo. After that we will better understand what the SP should be.

[Untamed]

Deleted

[Breezy]

Deleted

I read it before you deleted it and you called it straight, nothing wrong with that.

[Teitei]

Gee - can see why this thread has to be strictly monitored! So much angst!

I picked up some shares during the index sell down at 59c and thought that the sp would be tracking back towards 65c comfortably by now before the profit takers (from the index sell down) lock in their 10% gain. But they appear to be selling out at around current levels. Meanwhile, longer term holders have taken a hammering having bought all the way down and seem unable or willing to load up on much more.

I was looking for the directors and management to load up with more shares during the index sell down - would have been very encouraging but there have been no SPH from any one of them post the index sell down.

So looks like sp is going to range trade around current levels until results in late May.

Traders' stock in the meantime?

[Untamed]

My angst was totally justified Balance, but for my own well-being I deleted my previous post.

This post of yours, is the kind of post I come here for. A constructive contribution around what is going on with OCA currently. Not simply a nauseating, boring, repetitive "this company is crap" post.

I don't expect to agree with everything people post here. I just want posts to read that are of some value.

Gee - can see why this thread has to be strictly monitored! So much angst!

I picked up some shares during the index sell down at 59c and thought that the sp would be tracking back towards 65c comfortably by now before the profit takers (from the index sell down) lock in their 10% gain. But they appear to be selling out at around current levels. Meanwhile, longer term holders have taken a hammering having bought all the way down and seem unable or willing to load up on much more.

I was looking for the directors and management to load up with more shares during the index sell down - would have been very encouraging but there have been no SPH from any one of them post the index sell down.

So looks like sp is going to range trade around current levels until results in late May.

Traders' stock in the meantime?

[Teitei]

My angst was totally justified Balance, but for my own well-being I deleted my previous post.

This post of yours, is the kind of post I come here for. A constructive contribution around what is going on with OCA currently. Not simply a nauseating, boring, repetitive "this company is crap" post.

I don't expect to agree with everything people post here. I just want posts to read that are of some value.

Fair enough, Untamed but do bear in mind that there are traders as well as fundamental investors in most stocks.

As I have assessed and posted before on the other site, there are two big assumptions being made with all the listed RVs:

1. That the 'free' refundable ORAs are automatically invested profitably on the asset side. St Helier shows that is not the case. And as has been pointed out by other posters, OCA's care units are a severe drag on operating profits.

2. That the RVs property portfolios are somewhat not subjected to the property cycle. Where other property companies have been taking hits on their property valuations in the last 2 years, the RVs have increased and continuously booked steady increases in property revaluations.

The market (the institutional one being critical in terms of driving the sp) obviously does not agree with the assumptions above - hence, the discount to NAB of 56% in the case of OCA :

Simplistically, OCA's property assets were valued at $2.54 billion as at 30 Sep 2023 vs Equity of $1.02 billion - leverage to upside and downside property valuations of 2.5X. So if the institutional market takes the view that OCA's property assets should be revalued down by 15%*, it can be seen that $381m would reduce Equity down to $639m (NAB down to 88c). 20% would reduce Equity by $508m so NAB would be 71c.

[Untamed]

...as has been pointed out by other posters, OCA's care units are a severe drag on operating profits.

I am not entirely convinced that is the case, but if it is, it will not be forever.

What a lot of investors fail to understand is that care suites are necessary. If someone is looking to move into a villa or apartment, which provider do you think they will pick, all other things being equal? Provider A, who provides continuity of care via care suites OR Provider B, who doesn't? As someone who works in the aged care sector, I can safely tell you that the vast majority of people will choose Provider A because once they are settled and feeling "at home" in the RV of their choosing, they absolutely do not want to have to move. Especially if they are now in their late 80s-90s with health issues. That village is "home", they feel safe and supported, and they have friends (both residents and staff). The absolute best thing for those people, for both their physical and emotional well-being, is to be able to get that higher level of care, within that community.

The rest home I work at is rest home level only, so we have no choice but to sometimes move someone elsewhere to hospital or dementia level care. It breaks our hearts to have to do that, because we, as caregivers, know that the chance they will die within a few weeks or months, once moved, is really high. Most of those people are not dying when they leave us. They just need a level of care we are not equipped to provide. Not once, in the time I have worked in this role, has anyone wanted to move. Not once.

Care suites will be the care preference of the future - for those who can afford it. I have absolutely no doubt about that. It is what I would choose if I had the finances to do it. It is the best care option possible, and it will be profitable eventually.

[Basil]

Gee - can see why this thread has to be strictly monitored! So much angst!

Some people nursing very deep wounds from huge unrealized losses with this one makes them hypersensitive or habitually sullen to anything that through their own unique "filter", appears to be negative.  Was only discussing repurposing units that hasn't sold that's been on the market for years, (which is what any intelligent new CEO might consider doing), but that appears to have triggered some people's sensitivities.

[Untamed]

Some people nursing very deep wounds from huge unrealized losses with this one makes them hypersensitive or habitually sullen to anything that through their own unique "filter", appears to be negative.  Was only discussing repurposing units that hasn't sold that's been on the market for years, (which is what any intelligent new CEO might consider doing), but that appears to have triggered some people's sensitivities.

Are you seriously going to pull out that tired and disrespectful argument? I thought you had learned your lesson, but apparently not.

I am a very small investor in OCA, and yes, my holding is well in the red. But I am not even remotely "sensitive" or "worried" or "panicking" or any other adjective you wish to use. I made a calculated decision to invest in this company, for reasons that still apply, and I have no regrets whatsoever. While of course I would like to see a speed up of progress, and a higher share price, I am invested for the long term. As are most OCA investors. Don't treat us like idiots, and stop with the condescending implication that anything we post is because we are "butt hurt" losers.

If Winner, I and a few others didn't shoot the breeze on a regular basis this forum would be like a morgue but, sadly, and I see this so much in the real world too, those that contribute the least, complain the most.

No it wouldn't. This thread used to be a good place for general, civilised discussion of OCA. But you and winner, and a few others, have turned it into a place of constant frustration and drama. Yes, I do appreciate the irony of that statement because here I am, yet again, contributing to that drama. But "someone" has to be the adult here and call out this nonsense from time to time. Otherwise, this thread is an absolute waste of time. You all did exactly the same with the OCA thread at ST. Ruined it for everyone. And now, you have basically done the same thing here. Some of us migrated over here in the hope of it being a breath of fresh air, without the never ending BS and dramas, but some of you are well on the way to turning Stocktalk into a clone of ST.

... those that contribute the least, complain the most

Really? So unless one is an accountant, or has a million dollar investment portfolio, they have nothing of value to contribute? I contribute plenty, as I did at ST. Whether you consider my contributions of value, is up to you, but the feedback I receive via rep votes, likes, and personal messages, would appear to indicate otherwise.

It isn't a freaking competition.

[Basil]

Time to have a cup of tea then take Tony the Pony to the dog park for a walk and chill out.  Maybe you should do something similar lol

Actually, on the subject of calming pet therapy one of the things that really disappointed me when I looked at Oceania's Lady Allum village in Milford for care for my mum was that they had stopped their weekly pet therapy sessions for the old folks.  The oldies really look forward to those weekly visits from dog's and for no good reason they had stopped them.  Maybe the new CEO will ensure all care villages have this incredibly valuable pet therapy session for residents?

I'd volunteer Tony the Pony but he's such a big dog he would scare some of the residents.  Need a smaller and more agreeable dog like a Beagle.

[Teitei]

Chill, one and all.

There is much to learn from one another and I have always appreciated all contributions, albeit with exasperation at times!