OCA - Oceania Healthcare

[Waltzing]

want all companies and sectors on the NZX to do well as the country needs it..

HealthCarePro (aka UTD) put a good educational case for care suites and with careful management in a difficult sector.

[Teitei]

Claims depressed property market etc etc holding back sales is a red herring to me

If REINZ reported property volumes is a proxy for market activity the last six months has been pretty strong.

Table shows growth in sales for ARV, OCA and SUM compared to general activity in NZ property market

What's happened to OCA new sales over last 6 months ...the 3% stands out as a really outlier eh ...something not right

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A case of resales being at more realistic market values vs new sales being offered at unrealistic high values due to the high prices paid by OCA for land and development costs?

T

[Basil]

Must admit though that I thought that OCA sp would trend back to 70c due to the sheer number of shares (30m+) dumped during the index exit. Such is life.

I thought the same and thought a reversion to the recent trading range of 68-74 cents was likely so while it was a little disappointing, that's OCA for you isn't it !  I like to use a fishing analogy in such situations, helps me to be philosophical about it. When you go fishing, even if you only catch one small fish, as long as you can get a couple of reasonable fillets off it, it's worth eating and better than nothing.

[Breezy]

I thought the same and thought a reversion to the recent trading range of 68-74 cents was likely so while it was a little disappointing, that's OCA for you isn't it !  I like to use a fishing analogy in such situations, helps me to be philosophical about it. When you go fishing, even if you only catch one small fish, as long as you can get a couple of reasonable fillets off it, it's worth eating and better than nothing.

The market does what it wants, its seldom right and most of the time is either overbought or oversold as it has been for OCA for quite some time now. To believe the market always correctly prices a stock is delusional.

[Teitei]

The market does what it wants, its seldom right and most of the time is either overbought or oversold as it has been for OCA for quite some time now. To believe the market always correctly prices a stock is delusional.

Agreed when it comes to short term sp movements.

Market is uncannily accurate though in the long term most of the time.

And what's the long term trend of OCA? Pretty much one way since 2021.

[Basil]

Market is uncannily accurate though in the long term most of the time.

Market seems to have worked out OCA is a no growth company and priced it accordingly.

[Untamed]

Not cool Basil. There is no "silence" whatsoever. I happen to know that the person you are referring to is currently off grid. So just stop with the accusatory innuendos. You always do this and it is not ok! 

Better not name names, too many sensitive ears but someone mentioned to me by PM today, the silence from one prominent poster on the other channel who was sure 2H sales would be up absolutely heaps and along with it, FY24 profit, is deafening.  Must admit, that observation had crossed my mind too.

[Basil]

I have amended that post already at 5.58 p.m., a full five minutes before your post.    Maybe if you weren't so quick to be the P.C. police you would have noticed that.

[Untamed]

The phone rang, while I was busy typing hence the delay in hitting "post."

I was going to say "Good Beagle!" but now that I see you edited your post and called me the "PC Police" I won't be doing that.  I told you some time ago, during one of our behind the scenes "conversations" that I will always call you out if I see you disrespecting anyone. So you know full well that's what I will do. I make zero apologies for that.

And maybe, if you thought before you posted, I wouldn't have to.

I have amended that post already at 5.58, a full five minutes before your post.

[Basil]

Just calling it as I see it, which isn't going to change anytime soon either 
Took Tony the Pony for his walk today and we met a very cute Beagle.  Got talking with her owner and swapping Beagle ownership stories.  They really are naughty dog's, always looking to steal food that's not there's.    Probably chose my user handle on the other channel pretty well lol   Probably should change my user handle on here back to Beagle too lol

[BlackPeter]

...

What's happened to OCA new sales over last 6 months ...the 3% stands out as a really outlier eh ...something not right

Without deeper analysis - did you consider that OCA's 2HY23 number (+38%) was as well a real "outlayer", but on the positive side?

So - is it really surprising, that they had the HY to follow less growth on top of that outstanding growth?

[winner (n)]

Without deeper analysis - did you consider that OCA's 2HY23 number (+38%) was as well a real "outlayer", but on the positive side?

So - is it really surprising, that they had the HY to follow less growth on top of that outstanding growth?

I did and came to conclusion it was off a lo wish number the year prior .....

.....and dismissed the idea that they may have changed the way as to when they book sales (other words describe this behaviour) ......and for that reason H223 number might be 'inflated' to get a respectable profit result innF23

[winner (n)]

BP ...forgot to say that even though H1 might have been really good it's surprising the momentum didn't continue through H2, esp when the over all property  market was more active.

[Basil]

BP ...forgot to say that even though H1 might have been really good it's surprising the momentum didn't continue through H2, esp when the over all property  market was more active.

I think that's the key takeaway from this update.  All the more surprising because new stock is at an all time high.  Its crystal clear to me that people are voting with their feet and most prefer what ARV and SUM are bringing to the market. 

[BlackPeter]

I think that's the key takeaway from this update.  All the more surprising because new stock is at an all time high.  Its crystal clear to me that people are voting with their feet and most prefer what ARV and SUM are bringing to the market. 

Look, people tend to see see what they want to see.

If somebody sells 200 items a year, than this is just a number.
If they sell 80 items in HY 1 and 120 items in HY2, than this must be an amazing company with outstanding growth, even if the HY2 gain is just due to delayed sales in HY1.
If they however sell due to some unlucky timing 98 items in HY1 and only 102 in HY 2 (plus 3 percent) and are already on the the bashing list, than clearly, they must be a terrible looser.

I assume as accountant you happened to come across distortions due to timing before? Obviously, could happen to everyone, but if we are in the mood to bash a company, then not to them ...

And its not too hard to see that a big percentage increase on top of a big increase before is more difficult to achieve (has something to do with the laws of physics - LOL) then a big increase on top of a small increase (as the others had).

I just found it funny people seem to put that much weight on one "out-lyer" in a generally very lumpy business (building units is more lumpy than baking rolls) which clearly has been at least partially created by a very high high increase before. Is this what they call confirmation bias?