MCK - Millennium & Copthorne Hotels NZ Limited

[Crackity]

MCK half year results out

Hotel ops up / CDI contribution down

$3.46 NTA in the presso is at historical cost - see last annual report  for further clarification to this misleading figure....

I'm a buyer at $2.80 if anyone is bored waiting till end of Jan 2026 

[Basil]

Yeap, quite satisfactory result given the bottom of the cycle weakness of the economy with hotel revenue up nicely by 15%  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/456579/attachment/449236/456579-449236.pdf

Its game on from 22 January 2026 when their 9 month standstill agreement under the previous takeover ends.  They've gone from less than 71% in Sept 2024 to just on 84% in May 2025 after the super low takeover offer of $2.80 failed to reach the 90% level.  Only another 6% required to get to 90% and compulsory acquisition but from memory ~ 1% of those 6% is held by a Kwek family member so they really only need another 5% from external parties.

Where will they pitch the increased takeover offer ?  That's the $64,000 question.

[BlackPeter]

Yeap, quite satisfactory result given the bottom of the cycle weakness of the economy with hotel revenue up nicely by 15%  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/456579/attachment/449236/456579-449236.pdf

Its game on from 22 January 2026 when their 9 month standstill agreement under the previous takeover ends.  They've gone from less than 71% in Sept 2024 to just on 84% in May 2025 after the super low takeover offer of $2.80 failed to reach the 90% level.  Only another 6% required to get to 90% and compulsory acquisition but from memory ~ 1% of those 6% is held by a Kwek family member so they really only need another 5% from external parties.

Where will they pitch the increased takeover offer ?  That's the $64,000 question.

Hard to say. They well might hope for another below average summer season and put the next pick in as soon as possible.

Market value of Equity: $6.95. Hi, this would be great!
Analysts saying something between $4.40 and $5.00;
Cost value of Equity: $4.39 ... suppose this would bring them the remaining 6% or so.
Price ticker starting with a 3: not sure ... might cost them more in process costs than offering a bit more.

So - I guess my idea would be $4.40 (and maybe a wee plus), but hey - we will see.

[Basil]

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/458826/attachment/452163/458826-452163.pdf

Looks like a high quality manager.

Just a little over 4 months until the majority shareholder that control's 84% + about 1% more with a friendly family member is enabled to be in a position to make another takeover attempt.  9 month agreed stand-down period ends 22 January 2026.  They've made good progress so far, lifting their stake from ~ 70% this time last year.

Only need another 5% from external parties to move to compulsory acquisition.  Mid point of independent report in February 2025 was $4.70 which is 69% more than the current share price.  No guarantee of course that they will make another takeover offer but I'd be surprised if they didn't at some stage next year.  Disc: Holding a significant position.

[Basil]

Its game on from 22 January 2026 when their 9 month standstill agreement under the previous takeover ends.  They've gone from less than 71% in Sept 2024 to just on 84% in May 2025 after the super low takeover offer of $2.80 failed to reach the 90% level.  Only another 6% required to get to 90% and compulsory acquisition but from memory ~ 1% of those 6% is held by a Kwek family member so they really only need another 5% from external parties.

Where will they pitch the increased takeover offer ?  That's the $64,000 question.

Gosh, that's only two and a half months away now. 

[Plata]

Whats to stop them low-balling on the final offer like what happened to restauarant brands?

[Basil]

ACC own just on 5% and are the kingmaker. They're generally considered to be astute investors. They'll negotiate hard 

[Basil]

Yeap, quite satisfactory result given the bottom of the cycle weakness of the economy with hotel revenue up nicely by 15%  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/456579/attachment/449236/456579-449236.pdf

Its game on from 22 January 2026 when their 9 month standstill agreement under the previous takeover ends.  They've gone from less than 71% in Sept 2024 to just on 84% in May 2025 after the super low takeover offer of $2.80 failed to reach the 90% level.  Only another 6% required to get to 90% and compulsory acquisition but from memory ~ 1% of those 6% is held by a Kwek family member so they really only need another 5% from external parties.
Where will they pitch the increased takeover offer ?  That's the $64,000 question.

Just on 2 weeks until the standstill agreement ends and another takeover offer could potentially be launched.  I think its fair to say looking at the share price that anticipation is building.  This was one of my picks in the share competition and I am also holding a significant stake in my real portfolio.  The last independent appraisal report had a mid point fair value of $4.70 but that was nearly a year ago and tourism has recovered since then.  Interesting times for MCK shareholders.

[alkebab]

Just on 2 weeks until the standstill agreement ends and another takeover offer could potentially be launched.  I think its fair to say looking at the share price that anticipation is building.  This was one of my picks in the share competition and I am also holding a significant stake in my real portfolio.  The last independent appraisal report had a mid point fair value of $4.70 but that was nearly a year ago and tourism has recovered since then.  Interesting times for MCK shareholders.

Someone was keen yesterday - took out all of the sells at 3.05, 3.06, 3.08 that had been sitting there for a week or two.

[Basil]

Someone was keen yesterday - took out all of the sells at 3.05, 3.06, 3.08 that had been sitting there for a week or two.

Yes, bit of a buggar, did it just before I was going to do the same lol.

[alkebab]

Yes, bit of a buggar, did it just before I was going to do the same lol.

Looks like we might be done with sizeable sell offers at the $3 mark. Haven't seen anything come up since late Monday and piles of buys are starting to form.

Ignoring the BS sells (for now) at $3.9 and $4, I think we might still get something come up at say $3.50. 

Edit: LOL just as I posted the $3.5 sell pops up

[Jay]

Someone is 'watching' you alkebab!

[Crackity]

Hmmm - same takeover premium applied to Rakon today would give a bid price of approx $5.45 for MCK

Jeez

[Basil]

Gosh its only 1 week to go until the agreed 9 month stand-down period ends and another takeover offer could be forthcoming.  I think they will know that if they leave it another year the future possible takeover price will need to be materially higher.  We're in very good hands with Blair Cooper at ACC in the drivers seat as the kingmaker.    I was very impressed with his professionalism at last years annual meeting and it was great chatting to him before and after the meeting.  I think he's 110% committed to getting the best price for all remaining shareholders if / when another takeover offer is made.  https://investmentnews.co.nz/investment-news/acc-flags-material-concerns-over-shareholder-rights-roll-back/
All those who showed dogged determination with rejecting the $2.80 takeover offer in early 2025 appear to be very well positioned.

[Crackity]

Ooooo - very auspicious day tommoz - only 26 days to the start of the Chinese New Year

And nine months to the day and the expiry of the warranties given from the last takeover