PEB-Pacific Edge

[Left Field]

Cause for cautious optimism IMHO. Why would AUA be reviewing guidelines if they weren't looking to update them in line with new initiatives and procedures - including potentially CxBladder?
In the meantime, the dollars continue to come in for PEB.

Market seems to agree with your cautious optimism Pierre.....closed at $0.109 today up 5.8%

[Shareguy]

Craigs today

PEB – STOP PRESS - Cxbladder is likely to see a better recommendation in key medical guidelines, to be released sometime within the c.3-12 months (with a greater chance of being sooner rather than later), although exactly how much better is unclear. If the new recommendation is positive enough, it could (i) reduce the chances of Medicare coverage loss, or (ii) in the event Medicare coverage is lost, help Cxbladder win it back faster.

[Pierre]

Market seems to agree with your cautious optimism Pierre.....closed at $0.109 today up 5.8%

The cautious optimism continues - SP up to 11.4 at 10:27 this morning.

[LoungeLizard]

The cautious optimism continues - SP up to 11.4 at 10:27 this morning.

Yes, it does seem that of all the recent announcements the review of the AUA'S guidelines seems to have had the biggest effect. If they can fast-track that process, we may see some good news before xmas??

[LoungeLizard]

SP hasn't been over 12c for a while...

 Seems like some are joining the dots in the process to come. A favourable outcome from the AUA may lead to a reversal of the Novita decision and an assured revenue stream from Medicaid/Medicare. And also more urologists and providers might get on board. That would lead to a serious re-rating of PEB as a business - literally a game changer. Or more accurately a game-re-instater, as PEB were $1.50 stock before it all hit the fan.

PEB are still a high risk stock, but the increasing possibility of the above happening is drawing the punters in  

[Pierre]

SP hasn't been over 12c for a while...

 Seems like some are joining the dots in the process to come. A favourable outcome from the AUA may lead to a reversal of the Novita decision and an assured revenue stream from Medicaid/Medicare. And also more urologists and providers might get on board. That would lead to a serious re-rating of PEB as a business - literally a game changer. Or more accurately a game-re-instater, as PEB were $1.50 stock before it all hit the fan.

PEB are still a high risk stock, but the increasing possibility of the above happening is drawing the punters in  

PEB closed at 13c today. Plenty of optimism and not too much caution today - let's hope it's  well-founded!

There's a way to go before there's any resolution, but it's great to see some interest coming back into this highly speculative situation.

It will be fascinating to see how far the SP moves should CxB be included in the AUA guidelines and if CMS coverage is retained. I will not be upset if it returns to around $1.50.

[LoungeLizard]

Are we finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel?

Over 14c now and something like a 30% gain on the back of the AUA announcement.

Could all be premature but I'm starting to wonder whether the discussions between Novitas, PEB and the AUA has resulted in some sort of behind the scenes agreement that if the AUA update their guidelines based on the new studies - STRATA in particular - then this will allow Novitas to reverse their decision without a loss of face? All speculation of course, but the continued delay in the final decision could maybe indicate that Novitas were giving PEB and the AUA time to get all their ducks in a row.

Anyway, some good cheer for long suffering holders.

disc. a long suffering holder.

[LoungeLizard]

Hmmm...pushing on to 15c

[Pierre]

Hmmm...pushing on to 15c

Yep. Cautious optimism now converted to positive enthusiasm.
Just hope it doesn't all end in tears!

[Left Field]

ASM this time next week..... all will be revealed.

Will the enthusiasm be justified?   

Fingers crossed...... but (call me old fashioned)..... I'm still very cautious.

[Pierre]

ASM this time next week..... all will be revealed.

Will the enthusiasm be justified? 

Fingers crossed...... but (call me old fashioned)..... I'm still very cautious.

Right now, caution is completely rational and totally justified. There is absolutely no certainty about any of the potential outcomes from what's going on in the US.

I very much doubt anything will be revealed at the ASM on the 24th.
Here's what PEB said in their 13 September announcement:

"Given these developments, Pacific Edge does not expect these matters to be resolved
ahead of the company's Annual Shareholder Meeting (ASM) in Auckland on 24
September 2024, which contrasts to the previous expectations communicated in
Pacific Edge's Q1 24 investor update released to the NZX and ASX on 10 July
2024. The review of the AUA microhematuria guideline, which was last amended
2020, is potentially significant as guidelines play a substantial role in
medical reimbursement policy for Medicare and all other payers. They also
have a significant influence over the practices of individual urologists."

On the face of it a "good news" outcome seems possible, or maybe even likely, but this is the US medical market - and as we've already seen - everything seems to take forever and it's all pretty opaque.

The current situation remains highly speculative IMHO.

[Habitz]

Timeline for final decision seems to be 3 to 12 months. In my opinion could go either way lets say 50/50 chance of either outcome. The upside conservatively must be at least 60 cent gain, sp 75 cents. The downside a 7 cent loss sp 8 cents

Nothing is certain but worth a punt maybe.

[Greekwatchdog]

Whilst the share price action is nice I see a fall after the ASM next week, unless the yanks at AUA/Novitas make a decision in the next week and I certainly don't see that happening on information we have

[LoungeLizard]

Whilst the share price action is nice I see a fall after the ASM next week, unless the yanks at AUA/Novitas make a decision in the next week and I certainly don't see that happening on information we have

Not sure about that - the SP fall after the ASM I mean - because, as Pierre noted, PEB have explicitly said that no decision will be made before then. More likely in 3-6 months I feel. The SP action is purely on the news that the AUA are to review their guidelines. It's not guaranteed by any stretch that the review will include PEBS products in the guidelines, but there's a reasonable chance that they will. If that happens, punters will see a pretty good, immediate,  return on their investment. If not, then the SP will retrench. Risk, reward and the thrill of the chase!

[Pierre]

A welcome bit of caution returning to the market today - closed at 15.3 after reaching an irrational 18.5.

Must have been a few grinners - and a few burnt fingers - after 5.2m shares changed hands today.