PEB-Pacific Edge

[Pierre]

Anyone who topped up around the recent low of 7.5c mark must be pretty happy with the SP now at 11.6c. That's good business - A 50% gain in two weeks.
Very high volumes too - ANZ hoovering up shares that were dumped after PEB dropped out of the NZX50. Or are others buying? Hope it keeps going. I've been averaging down as I still think PEB have got a genuinely good product regardless of the Novitas decision at the end of July next year. It's one for the optimists though, I would concede that    

I'm in the optimist camp and added a third to my holding at 8 cents- my average cost is still under water though.
The current price action is interesting and helpful but we're going to need a favourable Novitas decision before there is a substantial rerating of the SP.
If that doesn't materialise (and there's a good chance it wont), then I think we're in for a long wait unless other markets for PEB solutions emerge in the meantime.
I am slightly cheered by ANZ's commitment with ~15% holding, but lots of patience and intestinal fortitude always required with PEB.

[LoungeLizard]

I'm in the optimist camp and added a third to my holding at 8 cents- my average cost is still under water though.
The current price action is interesting and helpful but we're going to need a favourable Novitas decision before there is a substantial rerating of the SP.
If that doesn't materialise (and there's a good chance it wont), then I think we're in for a long wait unless other markets for PEB solutions emerge in the meantime.
I am slightly cheered by ANZ's commitment with ~15% holding, but lots of patience and intestinal fortitude always required with PEB.

Yep, I'm still in the red as well, and prepared for the long haul...

Still quite a bit of buying going on. Haven't seen this sort of upward pressure for a while. A general sign of confidence in PEB's future???

[lorraina]

Long haul...?
A road too far for me.
I do like positive cash flow from operations.Saves a lot of heart ache.

[Pierre]

Long haul...?
A road too far for me.
I do like positive cash flow from operations.Saves a lot of heart ache.

PEB is in the "fun" part of my portfolio. I wont go broke if the company does, but will do very well if it succeeds. Naturally though, I'm hoping for success - and lots of fun to follow.

[LoungeLizard]

I suppose one gets to the point where selling up at 10 or 11 cents only crystallises losses and doesn't actually return a lot of money. Better to just dig in for the long haul.

PEB in my opinion are a well run company with a very good suite of cutting edge diagnostic products and were simply blown away by two unforeseeable events - COVID and the decision to terminate Medic/Aid coverage only three years after it was granted (and after PEB had necessarily expanded operations at considerable cost). I think they will come right, I really do. They have 3-4 years of cash to do it, so that's the "long haul" I'm referring to. 

[Left Field]

Has anyone done the sums to estimate ANZ's DCA?

[Pierre]

Has anyone done the sums to estimate ANZ's DCA?

ANZ bought ~34 million shares at 65 cents in July 2020.

They announced they hold ~120 million shares at 18 December 2023.

I havent tracked their purchases of shares bought between July 2020 and December last year but, for sake of discussion and  easy calculation, let's assume:

a) The July 2020 purchase of 34 million shares was ANZs first investment in PEB.

b) the 86 million shares subsequently purchased to bring their total to 120 million were bought at an average of 10 cents each.

Based on the above assumptions:

34m @ .65 each = $22,100,000
86m @ .10 each = $ 8,600,000

Total 120m shares cost $30,700,000

DCA = ~26 cents per share.

Watch out for some heavy selling when (if) PEB SP gets to around 30 cents.

These are pretty rough and ready calculations - someone else may like to tidy up my numbers.

[Left Field]

Thanks Pierre, appreciated...... we are not far apart in our estimates.

My own 'back of the envelope' calculations had ANZ's earlier purchase of 45 Mill at a higher DCA of .78c (possibly higher as I seem to recall they purchased some in a Cap raise around $1.20 ??)
plus the recent 75 mill at .075c to .080
My estimate for their total 120 mill is between 31c to 40c.

Like you, I hope someone has more accurate records.

[winner (n)]

Update

Suppose not too bad in the circumstances

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/425093/411290.pdf

[LoungeLizard]

Test volumes dropping is to be expected given the necessary drop in sales staff. PEB scaled the organisation up when Medicare Coverage was granted, so only logical to scale things back until a final decision is made. Still in a holding pattern until then. 

[850man]

Some positive commentary on future CXB use in Diagnosis and Treatment of NMIBC in latest AUA / SUO Guidelines https://www.auajournals.org/doi/10.1097/JU.0000000000003846
"Although the current consensus of the Panel describes a limited role for urinary biomarkers to replace cystoscopic surveillance in NMIBC, the future directions in this field hold promise. Advances in sensitivity for detection of high-grade disease in a surveillance population of high-grade NMIBC patients using the CX Bladder platform have been significant. In addition, the recent review article by Rose et al has outlined the future applications of urinary cell free DNA in both detection and molecular risk stratification of patients with NMIBC, and the Panel believes this technology holds promise for future clinical application"

[Left Field]

The holding pattern continues with some encouraging signs.....clearly it all depends on the Novitas decision yet to come.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/429248

[LoungeLizard]

The holding pattern continues with some encouraging signs.....clearly it all depends on the Novitas decision yet to come.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/429248

Yep, they're maintaining their foothold, which all things considered, is about the best they can do.

[Left Field]

I was underestimating PEB when I said...."the holding pattern continues"

I've just read PEB's latest update and am impressed by their new research findings, new DNA analysis, and new proposed pricing. Read it for yourself here;

https://www.pacificedgedx.com/assets/Investor-Files/PEB-Investor-Update-Q4-24.pdf#msdynmkt_trackingcontext=6716cdbc-bfd7-4fbd-b13b-a1c8858f9918

Maybe a hint of optimism?

[Shareguy]

Craig's latest

We still think PEB is likely to lose Medicare coverage in the next few months, which will reduce operating revenue by more than 50% to c.$10m in FY25. With coverage loss likely and recovery to take 4+ years, the stock is not currently investable.

Fbar Latest

Under any scenario the risk of an equity raise within the next two years is elevated.