PEB-Pacific Edge

[Shareguy]

Good to see growth BUT still a low number of tests when you consider the market.

Have noticed American TV adverts are health dominated. Drug and health companies pushing their products, all with long disclaimers.

[LoungeLizard]

Good to see growth BUT still a low number of tests when you consider the market.

Have noticed American TV adverts are health dominated. Drug and health companies pushing their products, all with long disclaimers.

I suppose it depends on how you look at it. You could say there's a long runway of growth ahead of PEB if it continues to increase lab through-put year-on-year. 10% of practising urologists in the US now are using CXBladder so, glass-half-full, that's reasonable market penetration given the barriers to entry, but with a huge untapped market, if momentum can be maintained. If the Novitas decision is not re-instated. I'm still cautiously optimistic that PEB can come good.

[Left Field]

Link to today's ASM presentation info'

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/415320/399180.pdf

[Left Field]

Attended portions of the PEB ASM, some observations

- Impressed by current management team and CEO ( Chair not impressive.)
- 1stQ FY24 test numbers up 30% on PCP so BAU progressing well. CEO noted, "we have ruled out any contagion effect from the Novitas saga."
- PEB have adjusted priorities and spending, they anticipate no Cap raise needed for several years (they mentioned 4 yrs.)
- LCD uncertainty will take up to 4 yrs to resolve but as Chairman stated, "we now have revenue and time on our side."
- More technical delay's on Kaiser online system, but PEB appear confident and say Kaiser model is not effected by Novitas and is more akin to a primary care model. Kaiser v supportive of PEB.
- Share buy back considered but PEB say - "there is better value and returns for PEB if we pursue our research."

[LoungeLizard]

I thought it was a pretty good, honest presentation by management, although the market seems to disagree.

 They didn't underplay the significance of the uncertainty around the Novitas decision, but they do seem to have a reasonable strategy and timeframe to deal with it, even if the decision goes against them. No cap raise on the horizon and revenues should continue to increase in the meantime.

 I still think that the suite of products that they have - and they are introducing new ones - represents a step change in screening technology and for the life of me, I still can't get my head around the assertion by Novitas that the technology is not "medically reasonable or necessary." I'm still think that the LCD determination will, eventually, be positive. but even if it isn't they have coverage for up to a year and should have greater market penetration - and revenue - by then. I've added some more today at just over 17c.

[Shareguy]

Interesting loungelizard.

Did any one ask why the ceo, executives and board have not brought any shares themselves lately?

[LoungeLizard]

Interesting loungelizard.

Did any one ask why the ceo, executives and board have not brought any shares themselves lately?

No, but that's a good point. If Management believes their own spiel about the future of PEB it should put its money where its mouth is and buy a truckload.

[Shareguy]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415392

[Left Field]

Interesting loungelizard.

Did any one ask why the ceo, executives and board have not brought any shares themselves lately?

No, but that's a good point. If Management believes their own spiel about the future of PEB it should put its money where its mouth is and buy a truckload.

Actually the question was asked..... and answered. Best to DYOR than to rely on a forum to do it for you.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415392

Anyway, the whole saga continues............. PEB a very risky investment.

[LoungeLizard]

Actually the question was asked..... and answered. Best to DYOR than to rely on a forum to do it for you.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415392

Anyway, the whole saga continues............. PEB a very risky investment.

Ok, I don't remember the question being asked - so what was the answer?

Yep, looks like Novitas are sticking to their guns. I wouldn't expect them to have withdrawn the LCD at this point as that would be an admission that they had got it badly wrong. The consultation period is going to determine the eventual decision and PEB seem to think that they have industry support. Time will tell.
PEB was and still is, a hight risk/high reward stock.

[Shareguy]

After careful consideration sold last of my holding today. I agree there is the potential for huge upside however todays announcement strengthens the probability that may be several years if at all, to gain coverage.

Good luck to holders.

[LoungeLizard]

After careful consideration sold last of my holding today. I agree there is the potential for huge upside however todays announcement strengthens the probability that may be several years if at all, to gain coverage.

Good luck to holders.

You may well be right Shareguy - history indicates you probably are. I'm willing to see how the next 12 months plays out, but I certainly can't blame you for cutting loose. PEB is my only high risk/high reward stock and my view - flawed that it may turn out to be - is that you can have a sizeable holding without investing a lot of cash and IF it comes good, you are in for a big, big payday. Or you can lose a few thousand $'s if it turns to custard. It's the nature of the beast.
 

[Left Field]

Interesting loungelizard.
Did any one ask why the ceo, executives and board have not brought any shares themselves lately?

Also interesting to note who is not selling their existing shares.

PEB Chair, not selling and instead increasing his holding to 1 Mill shares.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/415747/399678.pdf

[Left Field]

Another show of faith (or hope) by a director......

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/415927/399886.pdf

[winner (n)]

Another show of faith (or hope) by a director......

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/415927/399886.pdf

Just having a punt I feel ...hoping they get lucky

Isn't that how PEB operates