PEB-Pacific Edge

[Left Field]

Interesting SP action today..... up 8.5%

Speculation ahead of next Thursday's results.

[Shareguy]

Good to see. Little volume on ASX.  NZX not a lot either. Only a couple of months to wait now for Novitas decision.

Novitas must finalise or reject the draft LCD within a year of the announcement date (28 July 2022).


FB think the longer we hear nothing the better the chances of a favourable decision.

Not long to wait I guess.

[BlackPeter]

What an amazing investment opportunity PEB is - I guess it filled now the pages of various discussion forums for nearly 20 years.

During this time lots of hype pumped, the CEO managed to build one or two decks form the sale of shares ... and the hope never seems to die.

It always looked like success is just around the corner.

Anyway - interesting chart ... is this the heart beat of a sleeping, or of a dying monster?

[Buzz]

What an amazing investment opportunity PEB is - I guess it filled now the pages of various discussion forums for nearly 20 years.

During this time lots of hype pumped, the CEO managed to build one or two decks form the sale of shares ... and the hope never seems to die.

It always looked like success is just around the corner.

Anyway - interesting chart ... is this the heart beat of a sleeping, or of a dying monster?

Good only for traders, though it was over six years waiting for the second trade. https://invst.ly/104lph

[Left Field]

Good result..... still no update on Novitas...... but due 28 July.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412015

FINANCIAL AND PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS:

• Annual operating revenue increases 71% to $19.6 million; total revenue increases 88% to $26.1 million lifted by a 39% rise in commercial test volumes and favorable currency movements.
• Total laboratory throughput (TLT) of Cxbladder tests increases 37% to 31,565 tests, commercial tests increase 39% to 26,691 tests; US ordering clinicians grow 46% to 1,150 at the end of Q4 23
• Net loss after tax increases to $27.0 million from $19.8 million, reflecting a 58% increase in operating expenses to $53.1 million as the company invested to drive growth.
• Pacific Edge is well funded; cash and cash equivalents and short-term deposits at $77.8 million from $93.5 million at the end of September 2022 and $105.4 million at the end of March 2022....

"Supported, however, by the advice and feedback we have received from our legal advisors, industry, academics and clinicians and following numerous representations to Novitas, we remain optimistic that Cxbladder will retain coverage," Dr Meintjes said.
"We are looking forward to the deadline on July 28 when Novitas must either finalize or withdraw the proposed Local Coverage Determination (DL 39365) and the associated Local Coverage Article (DA 59125) that cast Cxbladder's continued Medicare coverage into doubt."

[850man]

Activation of the Kaiser integration is also dragging out. I would have thought "administrative processes" would have been undertaken in parallel with the technology development.

[winner (n)]

Good to see PEB 'delivering on growth strategy'

They've grown their accumulated losses to $217m

Is this years $27m loss a record year ....must be or close to it

[Left Field]

Good to see PEB 'delivering on growth strategy'

They've grown their accumulated losses to $217m

Is this years $27m loss a record year ....must be or close to it

Just like XRO. Great strategy.

[Shareguy]

Craig's latest.  "Costs a bit to high"

FY23 uNPAT below our bottom of the market estimates...
PEB's losses deepened further to -$33.5m in FY23, a 51% increase from pcp and 6% greater than CIPe's bottom of the market estimate (and 23% greater than consensus), due to higher than expected opex as PEB lifted headcount 33% over the period.
Although the increase in opex in FY23, particularly 2H23, will carry through to FY24, we expect the rate of opex growth to moderate in FY24. This reflects that PEB slowed headcount growth late in the year, and management also emphasized that further expansion of the team would require the achievement of key revenue and efficiency milestones such as improving tests sold per rep, or used per clinician.
Even accounting for this, we think consensus estimates for NPAT are too optimistic for FY24, and we expect PEB's loss to still increase slightly over FY24 (CIPe -$34m vs cons -$29m). We see the FY23 result and outlook as further validation of our PEB investment thesis: costs required for Cxbladder's market domination will be higher in the near term than current expectations
...but we have improved confidence in medium-term margins
Management's framework for strong revenue growth while more carefully managing costs, has led us to reevaluate our modelling of PEB's mid-term (FY27+ margins). We now think that PEB can grow these margins at low double digits, up from mid-single digits previously, more consistent with the case study of key comparator company, Genomic Health.
Key CMS coverage decision due by July
The key factor weighing on PEB's share price remains the potential loss of CMS insurance covering c.60% of their test volumes. The as-yet unfinalised proposal to remove Cxbladder's Medicare coverage is nearing its one-year filing anniversary on 28 July 2023. Should the proposal fail to be finalised in its current form (which we think is the most likely - but far from certain - outcome), PEB's shares are likely to be re-rated higher.
Maintain Neutral, target price +10% to $0.56
With significant uncertainty around the Medicare coverage decision remaining, we retain Neutral, with our target price increasing +10% to $0.56 following the margin revisions noted above

So if it continues Medicare coverage I wonder what the upside is to current share price and the downside if it fails?

[Left Field]

It now seems the Novitas decision is much closer.....ie 9 June.....but still too early to call?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412459

"We understand that there is no required announcement from Novitas upon passing the expiration date."

Trying v hard not to let optimism break out!

[winner (n)]

It now seems the Novitas decision is much closer.....ie 9 June.....but still too early to call?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412459

Trying v hard not to let optimism break out!

Next week eh

I thought that the longer it dragged on the greater the chance of a good outcome

Good luck

[Shareguy]

A company with advisors and presidents galore and they can't get the dates right. Good news but a bit of a concern.

[winner (n)]

A company with advisors and presidents galore and they can't get the dates right. Good news but a bit of a concern.

I get the impression that PEB have no idea what they are doing ..hopeless

I'm confused ...why is this good news

[Shareguy]

I get the impression that PEB have no idea what they are doing ..hopeless

I'm confused ...why is this good news

Good news because we will no a lot earlier re Novitas. What will the share price go up to on a positive decision?

With a week to go it's looking positive.

[winner (n)]

Good news because we will no a lot earlier re Novitas. What will the share price go up to on a positive decision?

With a week to go it's looking positive.

it'll double won't it

JUSTASKPERCY won again yesterday .... 2 wins in a row .......might put the winnings on PEB fir a quick punt ....I'm on a roll so what can go wrong