A dividend hounds approach to value investing.

[Basil]

From LEK on the other channel......

Divi stocks (Craigs Oct 2025) according to craigs dividend projections

Top 10 based on forward 12 months

1. SKT 12.6%
2. SPK 12.1%
3. GNE 8.1%
4. SPG 8.0%
5. HGH 7.7%
6. KPG 7.5%
7. ARG 7.3%
8. PCT 7.2%
9. CNU 6.8%
10. DGL 6.4%

Top 10 based on 24 months out (2027)
1. SKT 12.6%
2. MHJ 12.2%
3. TWR 10.9%
4. SPK 9.8%
5. HGH 9.0%
6. WHS 8.3%
7. GNE 8.2%
8. SPG 8.0%
9. KPG 7.7%
10. PCT 7.2%

Interesting.... no mention of HLG, FSF and a few others ?

I was told by a Craigs client quite recently that they don't cover HLG which is surprising given its now an NZX50 constituent and arguably one of the cheapest growth stocks on the NZX in terms of its metrics.   

[lorraina]

I was told by a Craigs client quite recently that they don't cover HLG which is surprising given its now an NZX50 constituent and arguably one of the cheapest growth stocks on the NZX in terms of its metrics.   

Years ago they were all over HLG.Bit like a Beagle at feeding time.
Then HLG had a shocker year and Craigs stopped following them.

[Basil]

Years ago they were all over HLG.Bit like a Beagle at feeding time.

LOL.  I remain well positioned sitting in front of the dog bowl waiting for my huge December divvy feed.
Now my #1 listed investment position, slightly bigger than Turners, (sorry Tina, I still love you heaps too lol).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I was told by a Craigs client quite recently that they don't cover HLG which is surprising given its now an NZX50 constituent and arguably one of the cheapest growth stocks on the NZX in terms of its metrics.   

yeah I find Craigs quite patchy in what stocks they decide to cover.

[Basil]

One thing income investors to really watch out for when investing for yield, is the forecast is one thing

Top 10 based on 24 months out (2027)
1. SKT 12.6%
2. MHJ 12.2%
3. TWR 10.9%
4. SPK 9.8%
5. HGH 9.0%
6. WHS 8.3%
7. GNE 8.2%
8. SPG 8.0%
9. KPG 7.7%
10. PCT 7.2%

But how reliable has each company on that list been with dividends over the last 5 years, (suggest people put much more weight on history than prospective yield).  Some of the companies in that list have been very disappointing with the reliability of their dividends in recent years. 

[lorraina]

Take care they are unreliable.
Just too many mistakes.

[Rawz]

Very nice thread to read. Thanks to all for their contributions. Especially Basil and KW. I think if you combine a bit of Basil's value investing + a bit of KW's momentum investing you will do very well.

The only thing I will add is to throw away the DCF models. what a waste of time they are. I have read a lot of Forbar and Craigs reports and they are forever changing their inputs... honestly it cracks me up. What you are far far better to do is read every announcement and watch every webinar and wait for the company to tell you what the next 12-24 will look like. Not all companies do. The reason is because it is very difficult (impossible?) to predict the future. If the people actually running the business cant do it, what makes you think an analyst can from the outside? This is why most funds underperform the index because its all guess work.

Anyways, sometimes management are confident enough in the direction the company is going that they will tell you the future. its like cheating. Most recent example is AFT which im current up 20% on in 2 and a bit months just because they told us what the future (FY27) is going to look like. I have found management will put their names/reputation? on the line with forward looking targets/forecasts only when they have great confidence in the direction of the company. As long as the direction of the company is moving forward the news flow will be positive which will create SP momentum and hopefully you get in on an uptrend + re-rate situation and ride it until the next opportunity arises.

Disc. im still relatively new to investing so take all this with a grain of salt. Just adding to the discussion 

[Mousehold]

Thanks Basil,  I bought HLG at an average price of $5.78 I now find it difficult to buy more shares in the company @ $9, in a similar position with CEN and TRA

As a value seeker who loves a bargain, buying additional shares at higher prices is something I've always struggled with, while I've previously been happy to buy additional shares at lower prices. However, following a share down has done me no good with FDV, MIN and PLS on the ASX, and so it is something I'm actively seeking to correct.

Far better to buy more of your winners (if still a realist price) than more of your losers.

[Otago K]

As a value seeker who loves a bargain, buying additional shares at higher prices is something I've always struggled with, while I've previously been happy to buy additional shares at lower prices. However, following a share down has done me no good with FDV, MIN and PLS on the ASX, and so it is something I'm actively seeking to correct.

Far better to buy more of your winners (if still a realist price) than more of your losers.

I too had that affliction, on reflection, at the time I was in denial that I was in effect merely trying to average down my DCA. A better focus was to address the question is this stock of a quality that would justify an increased portfolio percentage allocation, and is there something I don't know that the sellers do know.

Often no point rushing to DCA down anyway if it is trending that way ( not that TA is any strength of mine ) avoid any FOMO mindset, and look to do the DCA BUY at nearer where the low SP point is if you have confidence in the quality of the stock. Nowdays I like too only over weight my portfolio percentage when I see that Mr Market is perhaps sleeping on the value of a stock, or it's just not the flavour of the month, as I saw to be the case in late April 2025 on the REITs

Think I will have a greater inclination than say Basil to justify some investment into a stock that might be well enough discounted in my view knowing it's not the cream of the market.

Don't know FDV, but MIN and PLS being mining sector I invest as a cyclical ( average of 5 years trading style of valuation assessment) with a view to the future, and need to avoid any hype or flavour of the month times to be looking to BUY.

But I remain human and get things wrong, hence what % of the portfolio investment fund has proved a saviour of the worst errors I have made.