SPN Southport

[Ferg]

Earlier I mentioned Southport are on track for at least $16m NPAT, which would be a record.  This would be 20% growth on last year's record profit of $13.3m.  Their FY announcement should be later this month.

Per the May 22nd announcement they mentioned: "The Company remains well positioned to deliver a record full year result, supported by favourable operating conditions experienced earlier in FY26 and continued focus on operational efficiency and capital discipline."
Source: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/473201

I track the daily ship movements at Southport and IMO ship movements are up at least 13%*** for the full year.  The first half year was up around 18% and my figures*** are showing ship movements are up around 9% for H2.  Large ships are up around 14% (being bulk carriers, tankers and container ships) with around 40% of that increase coming from the expanded MSC container service to the USA, with the rest coming from increased foresty exports and chemical/feriliser imports.  So the locals appear to be continuing investment in their farms.

***Massive caveat in that I may have missed a number of ships while I was in the UK and didn't collect the data in time....I will fix this once we see the full year presentation.  I likely missed a number of fishing trawlers.

Monthly ship movements below (keep in mind my figures for June are likely missing some fishing vessels):

You cannot view this attachment.

[Ferg]

South Port posted their annual result yesterday.

NPAT at $16.1m* was a record, giving EPS of 61.4c.  At yesterday's closing price of $8.80 that is a backwards P/E ratio of 14.3.  Annual gross dividend yield based on 29c fully imputed is 4.6%.

Highlights:

 Ship visits at 424* were up 16%
 Cargo at 3.96m tonnes was up 11.5%
 Revenues at $75.2m were up 13%
 NPAT at $16.1m was up 21%
 EPS 61.4c

 Operating cashflow at $23.5m was 146% of NPAT
 Free cash flow at $14.1m was 87% of NPAT, or 53.7c per share

 Final dividend at 20.5c is unchanged from last year
 Total cash dividends for the year at 29c are up on last year's 28c
 Dividends are fully imputed

 Net debts at $18.5m are down on last years value of $24.9m
 Net debt to equity is 0.25:1 (last year 0.375 after completing the dredging project)

 Dividend payout at 29c was 54% of FCF which is the lowest of the listed ports


*Per my earlier predictions....I said NPAT of at least $16m; they delivered $16.1m.  I also said ship vists were up at least 13% with the caveat I had missed some fishing ship visits, actual was 16%.


Sources:

 Accounts: https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/478334/attachment/475057/478334-475057.pdf
 Presentatation: https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/478334/attachment/475116/478334-475116.pdf
 Dividend: https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/478334/attachment/475059/478334-475059.pdf

[Ferg]

The investor presentation was conducted last Friday and can be watched here...it has the Powerpoint presentation and audio from the meeting:
https://southport.co.nz/media-and-investors/investors-centre

Highlights from the presentation (with my comments in brackets):

~ The economic performance of Southland underpins the record result (as evidenced by the regional GDP numbers from NZ Stats)
~ The smelter has returned to historic volumes (also confirmed by energy usage reported by MEL, although there is a tail of lower energy usage in H1 of FY26 which will disappear in HY27 which should contribute an extra ~1% of alu volumes in FY27 assuming nothing else changes)
~ They see strong growth in other opportunities in the medium and long term across the Southland region
~ Downside risk due to geo-political tensions and also additional maintenance & resource costs in FY27
~ Increased number of ships and volumes per ship
~ The smelter represents 24% of total trade
~ Growth in import volumes was mostly due to fertiliser, stock feed & cement
~ Growth in export volumes was mostly due to aluminium, forestry & fertiliser (which new CEO Derek Nind said " was something new for us" and possibly due to the Ballance reorganisation which saw extra volumes in their Southland facility)
~ They have commenced an efficiency and productivity project to optimise the assets they have
~ Trade volumes for FY27 are expected to be similar to FY26
~ There are a couple of big ticket capex items to come (but for me this looks to be BAU)

In summation: put these shares into the bottom drawer and leave them there. There are no red flags.