RAK-Rakon

[winner (n)]

Agree holding on may not of been the best move.  But hey its free carry apart from DRP that I took up, which has probably clouded things.  Still hopeful that a big pay day is coming but yes history is not on my side. 

Well done sir ......deserve your big pay day

[BlackPeter]

Well done sir ......deserve your big pay day

How do they say ... don't count your chicken's before they hatch?

Anyway - I agree, anybody staying with Rakon through more than a decade of inept management and boards extravagance should have some compensation, whether they deserve it or not.

Lets cross fingers it works out for holders.

[LoungeLizard]

How do they say ... don't count your chicken's before they hatch?

Anyway - I agree, anybody staying with Rakon through more than a decade of inept management and boards extravagance should have some compensation, whether they deserve it or not.

Lets cross fingers it works out for holders.

Agreed. I bailed some time ago but well done to those who've held on for a big pay day. I would perhaps consider selling now at less than the bid - a bird in the hand and all that - but that's for others to decide.

[LoungeLizard]

Having said that...

2 years ago the SP was $2.20 and even only 18 months ago it was around the bid price, so if you bought at that time, you are only re-couping your money or making a loss. RAK have never ever been the growth company that it's owners have liked to characterise it as - it has been a bubble and burst stock. Some traders and opportunists may have done well, but there has been an awful lot of people who have lost an awful lot of money with this stock over the years. RAK won't be missed if it is sold.

[Shareguy]

Based on Rakon's peak earnings year in FY22, when it delivered NZ$54.4m in underlying Ebitda and NZ$33.1m in NPAT, the offer price $1.70 represents circa 12x PE or 7x EV/Ebitda."


Got to $2.27 in 2021. Won't be selling at $1.20 odd. Will wait and see how this plays out. First offer or the last....

[BlackPeter]

Based on Rakon's peak earnings year in FY22, when it delivered NZ$54.4m in underlying Ebitda and NZ$33.1m in NPAT, the offer price $1.70 represents circa 12x PE or 7x EV/Ebitda."


Got to $2.27 in 2021. Won't be selling at $1.20 odd. Will wait and see how this plays out. First offer or the last....

Obviously something for every individual holder to decide.

Personally I don't see Rakon as an established earnings machine. They might have had one ok-ish and some not absolutly devastating years, but valuing them based on their only ok-ish year? Well, I wish any holder good luck to find a buyer who is happy to pay the price based on this calculation. Anybody who wants to improve their finances probably would prefer to put their money instead into the bank rather than buying Rakon.

I can't really see anybody interested in buying this company as a going concern, but they well might hold some IP which might have value to others in the industry. Whether this is the case, and how much it is worth to the bidder I don't know. I suspect only the bidder will be able to answer this question.

[winner (n)]

Mike Daniel stirring the Board up ....written to them ...seems he'd take the offer

He said "Lorraine, in my lifetime, I have seen too many offers withdrawn due to directors' delays caused by the need to justify their existence."

Rakon board urged to gauge major shareholder appetite to sell
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/rakon-board-urged-to-gauge-major-shareholder-appetite-to-sell

Maybe paywalled

[Shareguy]

https://bnnbreaking.com/tech/skyworks-solutions-proposes-nz170-per-share-takeover-of-rakon-eyeing-expansion

[winner (n)]

https://bnnbreaking.com/tech/skyworks-solutions-proposes-nz170-per-share-takeover-of-rakon-eyeing-expansion

Mike Daniel needs to do more stirring

[Azz]

The Phantom of the Offer saved this one for me. I got out at the top of the 52-week range, with a slight loss. Who knows, maybe the offer is still on? But I have to say I'm glad to be out.

[Greekwatchdog]

This is For Bars update this morning...

We adjust our Rakon (RAK) forecasts to account for prolonged market weakness in its key Telecommunications segment (~55% of FY24E revenue) following negative updates from key global telco players. Nokia (NOK) and Ericsson (ERIC) reported 1Q24 numbers in the last week, with both experiencing notable revenue declines. NOK reported a significant fall in sales, led by a deep contraction in its network infrastructure and mobile networks divisions. Similarly, ERIC experienced a downturn in sales, calling out a slowdown in 5G network deployment in its critical North American market as a key driver. While our FY24 estimates already align with the lower end of RAK's guidance, we reduce our FY25/FY26 estimates as we push out a recovery in Telecommunications. Our blended spot valuation falls -2cps to NZ$0.98, and we await news regarding the potential NZ$1.70 takeover offer.

What's changed?
Earnings: Our underlying EBITDA estimates fall -5% in FY25 and FY26, while NPAT falls -9% and -6% respectively.
Spot valuation: Our blended spot valuation falls -2% to NZ$0.98, with weakness in peer comparables also driving the reduction.
Nokia — 1Q24
NOK 1Q24 showcased a challenging market environment, with net sales falling -20%. Its network infrastructure segment saw revenues drop -26%, while mobile network revenue was down -39%. NOK noted that it had seen improved order intake, providing confidence in a stronger 2H24 that should allow it to achieve its full-year operating profit guidance.

Ericsson — 1Q24 sales remaining weak but the company calls out that inventory levels have stabilised
ERIC reported a -15% year-over-year decline in 1Q24 net sales, dropping from SEK$5.7bn to SEK$4.8bn. The Networks segment saw a sales decrease of -21%. Reflecting lower 5G customer infrastructure investment, sales declined by -17% year-over-year in ERIC's primary global North American market. The company noted that customer inventory levels have now stabilised, and it expected a recovery in the second half of 2024 following recent contract wins. Despite market challenges and cautious customer investment, ERIC anticipates sales stabilisation in the latter half of 2024, supported by a strong pipeline and recent contract wins in North America.

Earnings preview — RAK FY24 result due 29 May 2024, we revise our FY25 and FY26 estimates
RAK is due to report its FY24 result on 29 May 2024. Management has guided to underlying EBITDA in the range of NZ$13m to NZ$19m. Our FY24 estimates have NZ$141.8m in sales (down -21%), underlying EBITDA at the lower end of guidance at NZ$13.9m (down -67%) and reported NPAT of NZ$4.4m (down -81%). We anticipate RAK will update investors about the takeover offer, first announced on 11 December 2023. We cut our FY25 and FY26 revenue estimates by -2% and -3%, respectively, and our underlying EBITDA forecasts by -5% in both years, effectively pushing out the cyclical recovery by ~three months.

[Azz]

According to BusinessDesk, someone called "Daniel" has complained to the FMA, and "also repeatedly written to Rakon and its chair, Lorraine Witten, asking for it to at least tell Rakon investors whether the talks continued."

[Left Field]

A new 3 yr contract worth a total of $17 mill in revenue..... but still no update on the takeover.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431144

[Greekwatchdog]

A new 3 yr contract worth a total of $17 mill in revenue..... but still no update on the takeover.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431144

Another complication for the Robinson family to mull over

[LoungeLizard]

Rakons revenue last year was $180m so I don't see a contract of less than $6m per year being particularly material tbh. The Robinsons have a long, long history of over-egging RAK's potential and it never seems to materialise. Just more smoke and mirrors.