Retirement Sector Stocks

[winner (n)]

LEK does good job with seeing how Retail and Property stocks are doing

Here's a similar table for Retirement stocks - as of last Thursday

Might need to click to enlarge .... got to work out how to post images properly

[Beagle]

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/41695

Breathtaking decline in prices happening at the same time as we're seeing unprecedented increases in the cost of construction.. 
Margins must come under serious pressure going forward.

Could be worse to come as home loan affordability becomes even worse and more potential buyers are locked out of the market
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mortgage-rates-predicted-to-rise-to-between-6pc-to-75pc/757XFPKD7LEXSSF5Y6AOHRNZXQ/?ref=readmore

Impact on this sector and its ability to sell its units and get somewhat reasonable development margins ?  Time will tell.

My call on this sector as a whole - All boats go lower on an outgoing tide, especially leaky ones...
Disc:  No holdings in this sector

[winner (n)]

From Arvida ASM presentation

You lose less money by investing in ARV than others in the sector

They probably proud of that achievementYou cannot view this attachment.You cannot view this attachment. 

[winner (n)]

Sorry - sussed how to do images but obviously pressed button twice so you can how good ARV twice

Now need to suss how to delete such stuff

[Basil]

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/116579/average-asking-price-homes-auckland-has-declined-112209-january

[Whacc]

Wonder how ARV factored their raise to purchase Arena into those charts.

[nztx]

The whole sector looks like severe punishment being dealt out .. perhaps for earlier fresh air gained,
when no-one understood the extent of the magical 'what revaluation shall we report this period?' stances

think I would need to see lower than 50c in the dollar on NTA before becoming slightest bit interested in current climate
on the way these mysterious beasties commercially operate on truer break evens, unless the Swedes develop further taste
for more to add to their stable at a hefty premium 

[kasper]

The whole sector looks like severe punishment being dealt out .. perhaps for earlier fresh air gained,
when no-one understood the extent of the magical 'what revaluation shall we report this period?' stances

think I would need to see lower than 50c in the dollar on NTA before becoming slightest bit interested in current climate
on the way these mysterious beasties commercially operate on truer break evens, unless the Swedes develop further taste
for more to add to their stable at a hefty premium 

But whose doing the selling? another low volume reef fish activity day across the sector, big fish inactive and not wasting energy by getting involved.

[nztx]

The whole sector looks like severe punishment being dealt out .. perhaps for earlier fresh air gained,
when no-one understood the extent of the magical 'what revaluation shall we report this period?' stances

think I would need to see lower than 50c in the dollar on NTA before becoming slightest bit interested in current climate
on the way these mysterious beasties commercially operate on truer break evens, unless the Swedes develop further taste
for more to add to their stable at a hefty premium 

But whose doing the selling? another low volume reef fish activity day across the sector, big fish inactive and not wasting energy by getting involved.

very true too .. personally I like to see confirmation on improving trend

I dont see that now or short term yet .. as things appear to still be sliding off the earlier peaks

[Whacc]

The whole sector looks like severe punishment being dealt out .. perhaps for earlier fresh air gained,
when no-one understood the extent of the magical 'what revaluation shall we report this period?' stances

think I would need to see lower than 50c in the dollar on NTA before becoming slightest bit interested in current climate
on the way these mysterious beasties commercially operate on truer break evens, unless the Swedes develop further taste
for more to add to their stable at a hefty premium 

Swedes will get hungry before it gets to 50c.

Hefty premium to what? - if someone offered NTA I would jump on it.

[winner (n)]

Another down week for retirement stocks if you don't count Radius

Might get a few up weeks in a row one day You cannot view this attachment.

[Basil]

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/116605/barfoot-thompsons-june-sales-12-year-low-average-price-down-120000-december-peak

Sales volumes and prices collapsing.  Huge supply, low demand only leads to one future outcome...
How will people sell their house to move into a retirement village ?

[BlackPeter]

Quite amazing how much hype and B/S people can spread after a stellar pricehike and a minimal market normalisation after that. Clearly - the sky is falling and the globe will stop turning. It always does if you subscribe to the hype.

How will people sell their house to move into a retirement village?

Well, quite easy - they will do that the same way they did it 12 months ago (when house prices have been despite the incredible hype still lower than today), the year before (when house prices have been much lower than now), two years before (when house prices have been much much lower than now) and all the years before that.

There always will be people around who need houses and will pay for them a reasonable price ... and there always will be people around who need to go into care. Easy as that.

Buying into an OCA unit is something like 1/4 to 1/3 of the average house price depending on the region - i.e. there will be lots of headroom for people to buy into their retirement home if house prices normalise as they should.

Sun will rise tomorrow as well.

[snapiti]

we have had many years now whereby it has been easy to sell, what can be a not so liquid asset, residential housing, ave days to sell is a credible indicator to liquidity.
We have also, until recently, lived in times whereby house price increases have been well ahead of build new cost increases.
The retirement sector has benefited from a liquid real estate market as well as those keen to purchase as they have been receiving legendary prices for their own homes compared to buying new.
Today and the foreseeable future you have quite the opposite market place that has underpinned a high performing retirement sector.......watch what happens to the retirement sector (SP values) once slower sales filter through with lower prices and higher build costs (occuring right now I suspect)....perfect storm
Of course you will have those that will say due to the ageing population support for the sector will be fine....I see most retirement companies are still very upbeat, not unusual to see this from any company, that has experienced great times, even if the writing is on the wall for those following the macro environment

[Basil]

The market sent a big message out in the days following Arvida's pretty good full year result .... pushing the ARV share price down 12% over a few days

The message was plain and simple - the retirement sector is stuffed - its had it years of good times and now its going to have years of not so good times

Always pays to listen to market messages - especially emphatic ones  Winner OCA thread

Its amazing over so many years how the retirement village segment has tracked the housing sector.  Not completely logical because often people make needs or lifestyle based decisions regardless of where housing is at but the correlation between the two sectors is stunning and undeniable.
I reckon all retirement sector investors have to "look forward to" in the foreseeable future is reading an almost endless series of reports in the media about how the real estate market is in steep decline and watching their shares do much the same.

Some people should check their facts.  Average price of an independent living unit in upmarket villages can be very close to the surrounding real estate price.
Care suites that OCA have and make almost no money on are a different story but they're not selling well at all so who really cares.
Check out the prices of a sea view independent unit at the Sands in Browns Bay or the Ryman Devonport Auckland units with an asking price of $1.9m.
Press article I read today said sales of $2m+ houses in Devonport had all but dried up.  Hmmm
RYM said in their recent annual report the average price of their independent living units in the Auckland region is $1.4m but the average house price in Auckland is now $1.1m.     RYM's contention is because their villages are generally in upmarket suburbs there is still  good headroom but is that still the case ?

Not disputing the sun will still rise tomorrow but it could be covered by black clouds just like this sector.