FSF - Fonterra Shareholders Fund

[Tim nice but dim]

time for another DIM dividend prediction from TIM

1) Fonterra Prediction 45-65 (continuing operations) c/share earnings, mid point = 55 cents
2) Add Mainland contribution
  From last AR EBIT was 397/1838 (total) = 21.6%
3) Adjust Total EPS for mainland = 0.55 * 1.216 = 0.66 cents/share 
4) Dividend policy + (mid point) 0.7 * 66 c = 46 cents
5) Adjust for Inital/Final split from last year = (22/57) * 46 cents =17.7 cents
6) Adjuct for change to WMPP price (last 6 months/last full year)
  =0.928 * 17.7 cents = 16.4 cents
7) Apply Rounding = 16 cents/share initial dividend


Well there is another DIM dividend prediction, the last one was within a cent.

Time to update following Mainland special DIV annoucement.

As big F have been so generous with the SPECIAL I have assumed the top of the dividend policy (80%).


1) Fonterra Prediction 45-65 (continuing operations) c/share earnings, mid point = 55 cents
2) Add Mainland contribution
  From last AR EBIT was 397/1838 (total) = 21.6%
3) Adjust Total EPS for mainland = 0.55 * 1.216 = 0.66 cents/share
4) Dividend policy (high end) 0.8 * 55 c = 44 cents
5) Adjust for Inital/Final split from last year = (22/57) * 44 cents =16.98 cents
6) Adjuct for change to WMPP price (last 6 months/last full year)
  =0.928 * 17.7 cents = 15.76cents
7) Apply Rounding = 15 cents/share initial dividend


Not much change from the last prediction PLUS the SPEC @ 16 c means a great day for all holders.

[Habitz]

How did the Mainland contribution go from 11c/share in FY 2025 to 16c/share for HY 2026.

August to December had falling commodity prices which Mainland benefitted from and margins increased dramatically is what I'm picking.

It'll be good timing for me to get the $2 but if the buyer Lactalis squeeze more profit out of the system they have got a bargain.

[Tim nice but dim]

How did the Mainland contribution go from 11c/share in FY 2025 to 16c/share for HY 2026.

August to December had falling commodity prices which Mainland benefitted from and margins increased dramatically is what I'm picking.

It'll be good timing for me to get the $2 but if the buyer Lactalis squeeze more profit out of the system they have got a bargain.

Mainland result of 16 c will be for approx 2/3 of the year. Also when you adjust last years result for the 80% dividend policy this equates to 15c/share.

Still a significant outperform, eagerly awaiting the BIG F to explain why he result is so good. I'm sure Winnie will have something to say on the matter.

[LoungeLizard]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/468837

Confirmation of $2 per unit capital return on 14th April (record date 9th).

And still a good dividend and special dividend to come. SP on a bit of a roll.

Happy days

[Habitz]

Fonterra has over 4 Billion dollars in their bank account!!! They'd better not fall victim to any scammers. Have you thought about what you'll be doing with the cash LL

[Tim nice but dim]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/468837

Confirmation of $2 per unit capital return on 14th April (record date 9th).

And still a good dividend and special dividend to come. SP on a bit of a roll.

Happy days

Almost all the pieces are now on the board.

Still waiting on date for the SPEC, that will require settlement & auditing of the Mainland accounts upto 30 march 2026. I would not expect the SPEC dividend to go EX Dividend until the end of May.

SEE ....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/467839

"We are currently finalising our interim accounts and can indicate that we expect the special Mainland dividend to be in the range of 14-18 cents per share, which reflects the operating performance of the Mainland business during the first half of this year driven by ongoing cost management and favourable input commodity prices.

"This remains subject to the settlement date of the transaction and the finalisation of our financial statements and audit process."

[Tim nice but dim]

Result out on Monday, not expecting any surprises. Will be interesting to see if they are  In a position to declare XD date on the Mainland SPEC dividend.

I have decided not to sell anything B4 the capital return due to the 3 ex dates for the interum, capital return & special dividends that is likely to complicate any prediction I make.

Lets see how things pan out.

[LoungeLizard]

Result out on Monday, not expecting any surprises. Will be interesting to see if they are  In a position to declare XD date on the Mainland SPEC dividend.

I have decided not to sell anything B4 the capital return due to the 3 ex dates for the interum, capital return & special dividends that is likely to complicate any prediction I make.

Lets see how things pan out.

Likewise. Too much money coming shareholders way to walk away from now. A bird in the hand and all that.

[seaweed]

Likewise. Too much money coming shareholders way to walk away from now. A bird in the hand and all that.

A few years back AIR sent me a 40c special div which included the normal div. from the sale of their share in another airline. The problem was the  sp dropped over a dollar in the following weeks. If they had split the special div in two and paid it out over 3 months it may have kept the sp a bit more stable Mabel. And the normal div paid out separate again to the special div. A good example is SEK with div in October then special div in January then another normal div in April. As for FSF it would be good to split the special div into two payments over a couple of months and pay the other divs separate again. Like you I will be holding out for the big div and all the littler divs. I think most shareholders will not want the sp to drop by $2. The YLD at $6.23 is about 9.1%. Hang in there fellow shareholders and looking forward to results tomorrow.        

[LoungeLizard]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/469642

Great result! 24c ord dividend and 16c special. Sorry Seaweed - Both paid on 14/4 as well as $2 per unit. Talk about a big payday!

Would be nice if the SP pushes forward as well - would give a bit more of a cushion when it drops after payday.

[seaweed]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/469642

Great result! 24c ord dividend and 16c special. Sorry Seaweed - Both paid on 14/4 as well as $2 per unit. Talk about a big payday!

Would be nice if the SP pushes forward as well - would give a bit more of a cushion when it drops after payday.

WOW a $2.40 div

[Left Field]

WOW a $2.40 div

Great result.

"Fonterra delivers another strong result for HY26
 
 • Total Group revenue: NZ $13.9 billion, up by NZ $1.3 billion
 • Operating profit: NZ $1,231 million, up from NZ $1,107 million
 • Profit after tax: NZ $750 million, up from NZ $729 million
 • Earnings per share: 45 cents per share, up from 44 cents last year
 • Normalised earnings per share: 51 cents per share, up from 47 cents last year
 • Continuing Operations return on capital: 11.2% up from 10.4%
 • Interim dividend, fully imputed: 24 cents per share
 • Special Mainland dividend, fully imputed: 16 cents per share
 • Forecast Farmgate Milk Price range: NZ $9.40 - $10.00 per kgMS, with a midpoint of $9.70 per kgMS
 • Forecast milk collections: 1,565m kgMS, up 4%
 • FY26 full year forecast earnings range for continuing operations: 50-65 cents per share"


The divvies represent over 35% gross return on my av holding SP ...... Nice to be 'well positioned' what-ever the SP does after the payout. 

Indeed, I may well use my payout to buy more shares if the SP drops unrealistically. Interesting times.

[LoungeLizard]

Great result.

"Fonterra delivers another strong result for HY26
 
 • Total Group revenue: NZ $13.9 billion, up by NZ $1.3 billion
 • Operating profit: NZ $1,231 million, up from NZ $1,107 million
 • Profit after tax: NZ $750 million, up from NZ $729 million
 • Earnings per share: 45 cents per share, up from 44 cents last year
 • Normalised earnings per share: 51 cents per share, up from 47 cents last year
 • Continuing Operations return on capital: 11.2% up from 10.4%
 • Interim dividend, fully imputed: 24 cents per share
 • Special Mainland dividend, fully imputed: 16 cents per share
 • Forecast Farmgate Milk Price range: NZ $9.40 - $10.00 per kgMS, with a midpoint of $9.70 per kgMS
 • Forecast milk collections: 1,565m kgMS, up 4%
 • FY26 full year forecast earnings range for continuing operations: 50-65 cents per share"


The divvies represent over 35% gross return on my av holding SP ...... Nice to be 'well positioned' what-ever the SP does after the payout. 

Indeed, I may well use my payout to buy more shares if the SP drops unrealistically. Interesting times.

Yes, I have a similar "dilemma" with what to do with nearly $70k in dividends/capital return. I don't hold many NZ stocks now - too risky in my view, and getting riskier by the day - but Fonterra is one that I have held onto and I may, like you, buy more if the SP goes anywhere near $6. I believe Fonterra is actually a good defensive stock to hold (everyone needs milk) and as noted by Seaweed the yield could be near to 9% after the divestment. A good dilemma to have!

[Left Field]

Yes, I have a similar "dilemma" with what to do with nearly $70k in dividends/capital return. I don't hold many NZ stocks now - too risky in my view, and getting riskier by the day - but Fonterra is one that I have held onto and I may, like you, buy more if the SP goes anywhere near $6. I believe Fonterra is actually a good defensive stock to hold (everyone needs milk) and as noted by Seaweed the yield could be near to 9% after the divestment. A good dilemma to have!

Good to see you 'well positioned.'

It is all about balancing the risks in your own portfolio..... I'm underweight and profitable in FSF (with under 5% portfolio allocation,)  so more likely to take any future  low SP as an opportunity to double up for a longer term  10% hold and a hopefully strong future divvy yield in my increasingly defensive portfolio.



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[LoungeLizard]

SP down to $8.05 since going ex-dividend. With the $2 return still to come (ex around 9/4) that may represent a buying opportunity depending on how one sees things playing out after the divestment?