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Started by LaserEyeKiwi, Jun 27, 2022, 01:27 PM

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LaserEyeKiwi

#120
Dec 04, 2023, 10:21 PM
US mortgages are typically locked in for 30 years at a fixed rates, and so most of the US homeowners are essentially trapped in their current houses on 3% mortgages, as anyone with half a brain did a mortgage reset when rates dropped that low.

So end result is homeowners are not feeling the higher rates, but the US home market has stalled out as no one is moving unless they absolutely have too.

LaserEyeKiwi

#121
Dec 19, 2023, 11:56 AM
USA REITS having a stunning rebound lately, well off the lows. here is the biggest by funds under management:

Waltzing

#122
Dec 19, 2023, 03:21 PM
ARG - GMT have moved back up also. GMT the big surprise over the last 30 days...

KW

#123
Dec 19, 2023, 04:05 PM
Quote from: LaserEyeKiwi on Dec 19, 2023, 11:56 AMUSA REITS having a stunning rebound lately, well off the lows. here is the biggest by funds under management:



AREITs the same.  This is the last chance to lock in high dividend yields.  
Don't drink and buy shares in a downtrend, you bloody idiot.

Cod

#124
Dec 19, 2023, 04:20 PM Last Edit: Dec 19, 2023, 04:23 PM by Cod
We are about to cross the streams.(Ghostbusters reference)

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Cod

#125
Dec 20, 2023, 10:17 AM
Looks like Fundies are late to the party, both ARG and SPG are being held down whilst funds load up, half a million SPG have traded in the first six mins of trading, retail have also been caught napping see below chart from the US.
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KW

#126
Dec 20, 2023, 11:00 AM
Quote from: Cod on Dec 20, 2023, 10:17 AMLooks like Fundies are late to the party, both ARG and SPG are being held down whilst funds load up, half a million SPG have traded in the first six mins of trading, retail have also been caught napping see below chart from the US.


Unlike the rest of world where economies are ticking along nicely, and retail spending is hitting new highs, NZ is in recession.  Might be a while before retail property stocks pick up in NZ.  
Don't drink and buy shares in a downtrend, you bloody idiot.

Cod

#127
Dec 20, 2023, 11:13 AM
Agreed, but two things:

1. The equity market isn't the economy and vice versa.
2. The equity markets are open to overseas buyers, when overseas buyers see 6 or 7% on offer and they are only gettin 3% locally it is inticing.

KW

#128
Dec 20, 2023, 11:55 AM
Quote from: Cod on Dec 20, 2023, 11:13 AMAgreed, but two things:

1. The equity market isn't the economy and vice versa.
2. The equity markets are open to overseas buyers, when overseas buyers see 6 or 7% on offer and they are only gettin 3% locally it is inticing.

The stock market forecasts the state of the economy by about 12 months.  Especially for retail.  REITS cant sustain 6-7% yields if retail turnover is shrinking, as many of their leases are tied to tenant turnover.  Retailers make less revenue, landlord receives less rent.  
Don't drink and buy shares in a downtrend, you bloody idiot.

LaserEyeKiwi

#129
Dec 20, 2023, 01:45 PM Last Edit: Dec 20, 2023, 02:30 PM by LaserEyeKiwi
Quote from: KW on Dec 20, 2023, 11:55 AMThe stock market forecasts the state of the economy by about 12 months.  Especially for retail.  REITS cant sustain 6-7% yields if retail turnover is shrinking, as many of their leases are tied to tenant turnover.  Retailers make less revenue, landlord receives less rent. 

REITS are real estate investment trusts which can contain a variety of real estate types: commercial, industrial, retail, residential, mixes of all. To know exactly what any singular REIT owns, one must delve into its asset portfolio.

KW

#130
Dec 20, 2023, 03:56 PM
Quote from: LaserEyeKiwi on Dec 20, 2023, 01:45 PMREITS are real estate investment trusts which can contain a variety of real estate types: commercial, industrial, retail, residential, mixes of all. To know exactly what any singular REIT owns, one must delve into its asset portfolio.

Yes, I was referring specifically to retail property REITS.
Don't drink and buy shares in a downtrend, you bloody idiot.

Waltzing

#131
Jan 06, 2024, 06:11 AM
US good jobs report which means no cuts for a while might show a disconnect between the US and the local market...

Markets used to move in step  but no  longer it appears...

US still on 10 yr 4 could indicate a no nothing year ahead and they are saying only 3 cuts at best...

COMP PROP stock may just be a big flat line for years... with slow cuts to valuations...

A value trap sector which pays a DIV,,,,

The more money NZ puts into COMP PROP and retirement the more the country traps money into extreme safetly of lands and buildings.

A defensive sector with no growth in SP in twenty years.

Waltzing

#132
Jan 14, 2024, 07:38 PM
10 year does not seem to be making any new highs is there only 6 months left in this last 2 years of market malaise..

 Let hope the GOVT annouce something ... anything that will lift the market ...

Like close down as many government departments as possible.. increase the size the Audit office and free the business spirits...

Note: yes this is not the NZ yield but it sets the tone for western economies.. or used to..

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/12/us-treasury-yields-in-focus-as-investors-assess-inflation-data.html
 

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