STU - Steel & Tube Holdings

[Shareguy]

Stu buys Perry's

Gosh I would have thought the ceo would have looked at how things worked out when they went down the track of buying non distribution businesses under previous management. Stu used to be the largest supplier of their own web grating, but over time like a lot of thier acquisitions key staff left and so did the customers.

Issuing new shares for Perry's dilutes existing holders. This time must be different I guess. New shares issues at $.84

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/450834/attachment/442409/450834-442409.pdf

[winner (n)]

Stu buys Perry's

Gosh I would have thought the ceo would have looked at how things worked out when they went down the track of buying non distribution businesses under previous management. Stu used to be the largest supplier of their own web grating, but over time like a lot of thier acquisitions key staff left and so did the customers.

Issuing new shares for Perry's dilutes existing holders. This time must be different I guess. New shares issues at $.84

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/450909

Dilutive ...yes the sellers now own 8.2% of STU and if it works out maybe 9% in a year or 2

Wonder how much STU needed to borrow to pay the ~$30m needed?

EPS accretive they say lol ...so no worries

Announcement here ...your link was Mainfreight
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/450834/attachment/442409/450834-442409.pdf

[winner (n)]

March building consents out from Stats NZ. Residential 12 months March down  3% on pcp ...non-residential down 7%

As Westpac says residential numbers at best remain 'flat' but should pick up later in year ...just like Malpass saying F25 going to be OK

Non-residential still going down ....future not so bright looking

Residential long term trend chart from Stats NZ quite interesting ...maybe this is where Mark gets his optimism from

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[BlackPeter]

Just had a look at FBU and just added the STU chart (the thick pink line ... don't ask me about the colour ;

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Sort of interesting - it looks like they (FBU and STU) are quite well correlated (well, not that surprising) with STU lagging roughly 6 months behind FBU. Ah yes, and FBU started rising - well, yes 6 months ago (ok - golden cross early March).

Might not be the worst time for aquisitions ...

[winner (n)]

A grumpy Mark in the press


The head of NZX-listed steel product maker and distributor Steel & Tube has expressed frustration about a number of major projects cancelled under the current government, saying if they had gone ahead they would have created much-needed momentum in the economy.

"We were hoping, with the National Coalition coming in, that 18 months ago, we would have started seeing some investment", Mark Malpass told The Post.

Sorry Mark ....you need to wait until 2027/2028 before things get any better

https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/360674116/steel-tube-boss-frustrated-over-cancelled-infrastructure-projects

[LoungeLizard]

A grumpy Mark in the press


The head of NZX-listed steel product maker and distributor Steel & Tube has expressed frustration about a number of major projects cancelled under the current government, saying if they had gone ahead they would have created much-needed momentum in the economy.

"We were hoping, with the National Coalition coming in, that 18 months ago, we would have started seeing some investment", Mark Malpass told The Post.

Sorry Mark ....you need to wait until 2027/2028 before things get any better

https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/360674116/steel-tube-boss-frustrated-over-cancelled-infrastructure-projects

Yep, it's a race to the bottom with this Coalition. If the Government doesn't have the confidence to invest in NZ's future, why should anyone else? (rhetorical).

[BlackPeter]

March building consents out from Stats NZ. Residential 12 months March down  3% on pcp ...non-residential down 7%

As Westpac says residential numbers at best remain 'flat' but should pick up later in year ...just like Malpass saying F25 going to be OK

Non-residential still going down ....future not so bright looking

Residential long term trend chart from Stats NZ quite interesting ...maybe this is where Mark gets his optimism from

You cannot view this attachment.

Just came across this (probably paywalled) article - 26 (really) big commercial building projects starting or continuing this year in Akl alone:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/from-ikea-to-kmart-cbre-names-the-biggest-building-projects-taking-shape-in-auckland/36ZUYKRYF5BPDFVRII55MBLN44

IKEA
Biggest NZ KMart
Tesla (oh dear, but I guess even they will need steel)
... and 23 more huge development projects ...

... add to that whats happeing in the rest of the country - at least here in Canterbury it feels pretty busy as well.

While we don't know, who is supplying the steel, I recon somebody will get the orders ...

[winner (n)]

April building consents down again.

Residential -12% for month v pcp ...12 months April -5%
Nonresidential -6% for month and year -7%

Westpac man says as no worries as bottomingbout and the future looks good ....for STU 2027 maybe 

[Otago K]

Off the PF Olsen website May 2025 Log Report, NZ saw milling businesses seem to be picking not much demand likely for their products until Q4, but anticipate it will be a rush when it is certain that building confidence is returning, supply chain issues impacts down the track maybe??

[winner (n)]

Stats NZ Building Work March Qtr a bit dismal

But Westpac guy is as optimistic as mark Malpass

On residential they say

A meaningful turnaround in activity is still some way off. However, the seeds of a recovery are in place, with falls in interest rates in recent months and a gradual firming in the housing market taking shape. Those conditions are expected to support a gradual lift in new housing development as we approach the end of this year.

And on non-residential

   Non-residential building fell 4% over the past quarter and has been trending down over the past couple of years. Some of the fall in spending has been due to public sector projects. However, weak economic activity has seen businesses winding back their capital expenditure and has also discouraged the development of new commercial space. In our recent talks with businesses, a number of those we spoke to indicated that they're holding off on major capital expenditure for the time being due to uncertainty about the economic landscape. Consistent with that, we expect some further softness through the middle part of the year.

[winner (n)]

Mark probaby doesn't worry about such things as it's looking good later in the year he says

Architects are shedding staff, shortening their work week, taking leave and foregoing salaries as they struggle to survive the biggest economic crisis to hit the industry in 50 years.
https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/06/10/architects-suffer-worst-slump-in-50-years/

Jeez architects not doing much now sort of says little work to be done in 2007 and beyond

[Cod]

Everything is proceeding exactly as I have forseen. ---- Mwahahahaha.
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[BlackPeter]

Everything is proceeding exactly as I have forseen. ---- Mwahahahaha.
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Beautiful falling wedge. Normally seen as a bullish signal.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wedge.asp

[winner (n)]

Hey BP do you recall last time we discussed triangles Re STU ...share price was in 120's and TA gurus said share price could go to 75cents if it broke out of that triangle

They were pretty clever eh

I better refresh myself what happens to bullish triangles / wedges. Share price might go back to 130 plus

[BlackPeter]

Hey BP do you recall last time we discussed triangles Re STU ...share price was in 120's and TA gurus said share price could go to 75cents if it broke out of that triangle

They were pretty clever eh

I better refresh myself what happens to bullish triangles / wedges. Share price might go back to 130 plus

I guess this is the thing with all these TA patterns - while they have the stats behind them, there is no guarantee. Not sure about the falling wedge pattern, but for most of these patterns the successrate is something like 60% - i.e. 40% are not so good :

The other thing is - its a rather unusual duration for a wedge ... if you just look at the chart, it might continue until late 2026, i.e. things might take their time. Good thing about that is however, that you predicted a upturn for 2027 - i.e. the STU chart might be well on schedule for that.

And yes, if & when things do turn around - didn't the STU board turn down a take over offer of $1.80 in some past life? Remeber when they still had earnings of more than 20 cents per share? Who knows, maybe history is repeating itself after all?