STU - Steel & Tube Holdings

[winner (n)]

OMG ...the STU share price on fire ...up to 112 heading to 115 and 120 tomorrow

All I can say I reckon market has got it all wrong ....was trying hard to like STU but not at these ridiculous prices

[Shareguy]

OMG ...the STU share price on fire ...up to 112 heading to 115 and 120 tomorrow

All I can say I reckon market has got it all wrong ....was trying hard to like STU but not at these ridiculous prices

Ok what do you think it's worth Winner and why?

[winner (n)]

Ok what do you think it's worth Winner and why?

On current performance which isn't going to come right this year and future industry activity prospects about 100/105 now and maybe 120 in 2026 when things look a bit brighter

[LoungeLizard]

On current performance which isn't going to come right this year and future industry activity prospects about 100/105 now and maybe 120 in 2026 when things look a bit brighter

Sorry Winner - that train has left the station. With 1H24 guidance being much the same as last year, IMO I don't think you'll see 1.00/1.05 again anytime soon. $1.20-$1.25 is more likely. Those already on board are looking at a 10% uplift in SP plus a 7-8% yield. That'll do me.

[winner (n)]

Good on you loungelizard

Jeez after everyone's favourite brokers update their targets the share price will be over 130, even though company performance will still be pretty dismal

Might have missed the express train but I'll continue to monitor its progress as it roars through the stations

[BlackPeter]

On current performance which isn't going to come right this year and future industry activity prospects about 100/105 now and maybe 120 in 2026 when things look a bit brighter

FWIW - I see their underlying value (based on earnings, growth & analyst opinions) around $2 per share.
Doubt however they will reach this mark in the next 12 months ... but probably around the end of the next up cycle. Anyway - each to their own. Just don't intend to sell them before they reach this mark.

[Poet]

FWIW - I see their underlying value (based on earnings, growth & analyst opinions) around $2 per share.
Doubt however they will reach this mark in the next 12 months ... but probably around the end of the next up cycle. Anyway - each to their own. Just don't intend to sell them before they reach this mark.

I'm with you on that BP, and I have a few.

[Perky]

I have some STU. I'm waiting for VSL to get a bit cheaper then I plan to sell STU and buy VSL. I think StU is worth $1.20 -$1.30 now.

Better management team, margins and Australian focus make me think VSL will outperform STU.

Stu is like the train Te Huia...VSL will be like a bullet train...one day

[winner (n)]

I have some STU. I'm waiting for VSL to get a bit cheaper then I plan to sell STU and buy VSL. I think StU is worth $1.20 -$1.30 now.

Better management team, margins and Australian focus make me think VSL will outperform STU.

Stu is like the train Te Huia...VSL will be like a bullet train...one day

FWIW agree with you re Vulcan ...... prospects in Oz lot brighter than NZ I reckon

[Perky]

STU has been good for me...bought 0.87 plus good divies. I don't mind holding.

I think next report for both Stu and Vsl be pretty average...just cyclical building/infrastructure market...pretty flat.

I'm not sure what is a good entry price for VSL...maybe $7 to $7.50?
What do you think it might drop to Winner?

KFL happy to buy in quite a bit higher than todays prices but they just spending other peoples money...I'm just a poor student...need a bargain.

[Shareguy]

On current performance which isn't going to come right this year and future industry activity prospects about 100/105 now and maybe 120 in 2026 when things look a bit brighter

Ok thanks for that Winner. Based on that, your valuation is not far from current share price anyway. Closed at $1.13 yesterday. The way I look at it from a value point of view is

(1) What other distribution business is trading at less than its NTA. Current from 2023 annual report is NTA of $1.17. Vulcan Steel have a $1.21 NTA with a share price of $8.23.

It just does not make sense to me.

(2) Cash in the bank of $17m ($.10 per share) and no debt. Vulcan have net debt of $340m (from FB)

(3) Balance sheet is very strong with bugger all "fluff" like over inflated goodwill.

(4) Attractive dividend which is one of the highest on the NZX and both Craig's and FB forecasting big improvements to eps and the divi. It's also fully imputed going forward.

(5) With interest rates forecast to decline both Craig's and FB suggest that M&A is going to be increasing. I agree and think STU stands out.

While I would not like to see another loss to NZ or the NZX I can't see STU being around much longer if the share price does not reflect its true value which I believe is around $2.

Well that's how I see it anyway and I'm off to chase some Marlin.

[Cod]

Looks like the curve is in, what happens next?

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[winner (n)]

Love your charts Cod ..... very interesting .....and often telling

STU at 80 cents would be good

[winner (n)]

STU has been good for me...bought 0.87 plus good divies. I don't mind holding.

I think next report for both Stu and Vsl be pretty average...just cyclical building/infrastructure market...pretty flat.

I'm not sure what is a good entry price for VSL...maybe $7 to $7.50?
What do you think it might drop to Winner?

KFL happy to buy in quite a bit higher than todays prices but they just spending other peoples money...I'm just a poor student...need a bargain.

I don't think VSL will go much lower than 8 bucks..... it's bigger and has that OZ exposure, listed on ASX and has interest from fundies. Think it will outperform STU over time

STU share price tends to closely follow FBU's and that's not always a good sign

[BlackPeter]

I have some STU. I'm waiting for VSL to get a bit cheaper then I plan to sell STU and buy VSL. I think StU is worth $1.20 -$1.30 now.

Better management team, margins and Australian focus make me think VSL will outperform STU.

Stu is like the train Te Huia...VSL will be like a bullet train...one day

Might be worthwhile to analyse VSL's balancesheet before buying. My system flags them with a sh*tload of liabilities, which makes them look more like a bank, while STU looks quite healthy. Not enough motivation to cross check, but just saying ...