Retail Stocks

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Not quite sure where to post this but its worth listening too. (Labour / Green supporters might not think so).
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/watch-prime-minister-christopher-luxon-and-finance-minister-nicola-willis-discuss-iran-war-fallout-and-leadership-speculation/LAJEQ74DYFA4XCKCPTFQPWG3WE/

Labour wants a cut in fuel tax now to help people cope with the impending price spike. National have ruled that out, and are only proposing delaying the introduction of increased fuel taxes next year.

So we have both the Labour Party and the taxpayers Union calling for immediate cuts to fuel taxes, and national saying no but maybe next year.

[Waltzing]

probably should be over in the politics thread that no one reads..

well back to retail OIL drops over night but retail will get hit a bit as OCR hikes are now back on the table sooner rather than later.

back under 100 thank goodness...for the moment.

[Basil]

Somethings just happened.  Just as I was posting about something else.....BREAKING NEWS on CNBC in a phone interview President Trump told CBS " the war could be over soon. I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force. He added that the US is very far ahead of his initial 4-5 week estimated timeframe.

West Texas oil now under $90, was nearly $120 yesterday. All the major indices, Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq now positive on the day.
Brent crude now $92, was close to $120 yesterday.

Definitly a change in narrative from Trump which the market is interpreting in a positive way. Small encouragement and much needed.

Get out there today and walk your dog or something similar you enjoy.  What's happening could be over soon.  I hope you all have a better day than yesterday.

[Basil]

Update. Brent $87, Nymex $83.
According to CNBC the correlation between the market and oil is currently minus 0.8. In other words, in a nutshell the oil price is driving this market. Huge fall from the Oil price peak of nearly $120 yesterday

[Dolcile]

The best thing to do in times like this is...wait for it... nothing!    Possibly the next best thing is to bargain hunt.

[winner (n)]

Retail Watch had Feb month sales up 6.0% on last year. Along with fuel and booze Department Stores were the only losers.

In-store sales +3.5% while on-line +18.7% ..seems a recent trend with on-line doing much better than in-store.

[winner (n)]

Weekly Update:

You cannot view this attachment.

A lot has happened since 2022

Think LEK started this to get a feel for share prices might bottom out ....KMD, MHJ and WHS still looking sad eh

What has happened to TRA and HLG I ask

[Basil]

Fascinating to look back. WOW,  just generalising, but what a staggering difference between those that got their choices right, approx $2.50 for each dollar invested and those that got it wrong, in some cases 25 cents on the dollar.

Get it right and you have approx ten times the capital now than if you chose badly. Crickey !

[winner (n)]

Fascinating to look back. WOW,  just generalising, but what a staggering difference between those that got their choices right, approx $2.50 for each dollar invested and those that got it wrong, in some cases 25 cents on the dollar.

Get it right and you have approx ten times the capital now than if you chose badly. Crickey !

The difference in share price performance (market cap) reflects the difference in a few retail fundamental metrics

Like profitability largely depends on gross margins and stock turns while managing costs

Great measure is how much Gross Margin $s generated from a $ of stock

With HLG, KMD and WHS reporting this week I'll update those key metrics and share with you.

Guess who does best in these

[winner (n)]

Retailers should be feeling happier

Retailwatch March data had sales for month +9.1% v March last year ...and 5.2% up on February

Fuel was +17% but most categories had solid increases

Even clothing was a solid 4.4%

[BlackPeter]

Retailers should be feeling happier

Retailwatch March data had sales for month +9.1% v March last year ...and 5.2% up on February

Fuel was +17% but most categories had solid increases

Even clothing was a solid 4.4%

So - March, this was after Trumps attack against the Iran and petrol already high?

One sort of wonders, where the money is coming from.

On the other hand - are you sure you entered the right year?

My Google AI says related to Retailwatch March 2026 NZ::

Key Trends & Data (Based on available 2025/2026 reports):
March 2026 Outlook: Retail NZ reported that the sector experienced a 3% decline in March, indicating ongoing challenges for the industry.
Previous Year Comparison (March 2025): The Stats NZ March 2025 quarter saw a 1.5% rise ($464 million) in total value of retail sales, with 11 of 15 industries increasing.
Regional Performance (March 2025): All 16 regions experienced higher seasonally adjusted sales values in the March 2025 quarter compared to December 2024, with Auckland (up 1.9%) and Canterbury (up 2.4%) leading in value.
Consumer Behavior: Consumers are increasingly moving away from high-priced local retail, opting for direct-from-China options, which contributes to lower local sales volumes.

Doesn't sound that flash, but hey - we'll see which of the AI's is right. Maybe they start to reduce the power supply for the AI data centers? Would this be good or bad?

[winner (n)]

Westpac a bit downbeat ...based on what their cardholders spend

https://www.westpaciq.com.au/economics/2026/04/westpac-nz-spending-pulse-march-2026?ai=1776023671431&cd=53404&cid=edm

[winner (n)]

So - March, this was after Trumps attack against the Iran and petrol already high?

One sort of wonders, where the money is coming from.

On the other hand - are you sure you entered the right year?

My Google AI says related to Retailwatch March 2026 NZ::

Doesn't sound that flash, but hey - we'll see which of the AI's is right. Maybe they start to reduce the power supply for the AI data centers? Would this be good or bad?

Different RetailWatch Peter

My Retailwatch is from a Datamine database

Your RetailWatch is from  Retail NZ ...feedback based rather than real data on

[BlackPeter]

Different RetailWatch Peter

My Retailwatch is from a Datamine database

Your RetailWatch is from  Retail NZ ...feedback based rather than real data on

Interesting.

But the quesiton still is - where is this money coming from? Given that many people can't just take the money from their savings account ... and the salary rises so far haven't been that amazing either. In what areas did they spoend less to allow for all this retail spending?

[Basil]

Lots of fixed mortgages have rolled off higher rates in the last year. Reports also that the average weekly rent nationwide has dropped $25 year on year.
Fonterra payout will be a meaningful tailwind to the retail sector.