Retail Stocks

[winner (n)]

Retail Watch sales data for April out

Cafes and travel etc still doing well ..... listed retailers could be struggling a bit

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[Waltzing]

Last autumn weekend for travel or maybe one more but winter is heading in fast now ..

and is it time to realise that as far as investing goes the big wide world is WEAR its at for retail and just maybe the discount to the other currencies, the USD, the PD and the EUR are now part of the mix.

But if the country is just POOR errrr  then your picks of stocks to invest in just got  smaller on the NZX and exposure to AUS is now a must...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/132022958/damien-grant-we-arent-in-a-cost-of-living-crisis-were-just-poor

[Waltzing]

well looks like stock markets down under may find it hard going for a while to come...

maybe its time to get back to work and forget about fast money ... real work is where the gains are going to be made.

Business is where its at...

its a stock pickers market again then... Stocks with low debt , high dividend payout and well controlled costs and that means building proper models with data management and tracking them...

back to the old days of boring back office building ...

dont think AI is actually going to be much help until companies release data in a standard readable form..

not the current generation of glossy gossip ..

[Waltzing]

predicted NZ GDP....out to 2028...

[winner (n)]

NZ consumers still down in the dumps

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[Fiordland Moose]

Yes - and in an environment with record low unemployment and job losses haven't even properly started yet.

Retail tough now, just wait another 12 months...

[BlackPeter]

Yes - and in an environment with record low unemployment and job losses haven't even properly started yet.

Retail tough now, just wait another 12 months...

Wise suggestion and always helpful - and who knows, in 12 months we might either live through the next boom, be stuck in a long recession - and whatever it is we still will wonder what the next 12 months will bring

[winner (n)]

RetailWatch May data below

In total consumer spend hanging in there with cafes etc and travel giving it a boost

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[BlackPeter]

RetailWatch May data below

In total consumer spend hanging in there with cafes etc and travel giving it a boost

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I guess the price gauging from our super markets helps as well. I always knew that these guys just want our best :

[Crackity]

Goldman's tweaks view on retailers - issued Thursday - should be similar for NZ......


The investment bank tweaked their views on the retail sector today and it had a decent bearing on performance. Their Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) model which is a macro-driven construct that looks to forecast spending pattens is flagging a softening backdrop.

In that environment, they reviewed their outlook for 4 domestic discretionary retailers Premier Investments (PMV) – SELL, Super Retail (SUL) – BUY, JB Hi-Fi (JBH) NEUTRAL and Harvey Norman (HVN) NEUTRAL.

[KW]

Heads up, the charts of prime retailers in Australia are looking really sick.  The lovely uptrends they had been in are now well and truly broken.  Clearly the market has suddenly decided that an Australian recession is on the cards after all.

[Basil]

LOV not getting much love from shareholders eh.  Classic peacocking stores where the young ones buy cheap shiny things to make themselves look sparkly, my granddaughter is a big fan.  To be fair, trading on 26.6 times FY23 forecast earnings, whereas HLG for example on about 10 times.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/LOVISA-HOLDINGS-LIMITED-19157145/financials/
 

[KW]

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/investors-flee-consumer-stocks-as-economy-slows-20230608-p5df5l

Fund managers are convinced the Reserve Bank's grip on a soft landing is slipping, triggering a scramble out of stocks linked to consumer spending, and mounting a challenge to its objective of keeping the economy on an "even keel".

Evidence of the slowdown can be seen in how hard retailers are discounting and the fact they're bringing forward end-of-financial-year sales," said Chris Prunty, from hedge fund QVG, at the sidelines of the Morgan Stanley Australia Summit. "Feedback from companies suggests the consumer hit the wall some time in April or May. Anything in apparel is ground zero but all discretionary categories are likely to be impacted."

"There have been half a dozen downgrades, but there will probably be more," said David Moberley from ClearLife Capital. "It's really the younger demographic that has really been impacted by cost inflation – rents and utilities," he said. "At this stage people are spending on travel but at the expense of apparel."
It's not just mortgage holders who are feeling the pinch: young people have become a flash point for sharemarket bears, as students and youth customers are crunched by rising rents and higher education loans.

[winner (n)]

Westpac Australia card spend tracking (eeekly) reports ' Adjusting for regular seasonal variations, quarterly growth momentum remains firmly in negative territory, suggesting the stalling evident in Q1 may be followed by an outright contraction in Q2.'

[Waltzing]

Get your old sowing machines out and start peddling ...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132237943/never-been-a-downturn-like-this-businesses-battle-costofliving-crunch