MFB - My Food Bag

[winner (n)]

Carter threw $100k in the pot at the IPO

Bought a few more at $1.71 and $1.63 soon afterwards as a sign of confidence lol

Been averaging down ever since. Best buy was 100,000 at 15 cents

Always a good sign when Chairman buys eh


Now holds 524k shares at average of 59 cents

Better get Forbar on the case eh

[Basil]

What Cecelia's Robinson's back story ?  Did she flick off truckloads in the IPO ?  She wasn't bashful in being quite forthcoming yesterday to me saying she'd bought some at 12 cents.   

[bulltrap]

Don't think so.  In  discussions after the meeting Cecilia Robinson mentioned to me that the share price got down to 12 cents at one point and she was buying and asked me what I had paid, (just under 20 cents).

I met a dear old lady there who I bumped into while getting a cup of tea who bought shares at the IPO.

It all sounds convivial, but I imagine Cecilia remembered the old lady and maintained a handbag swing distance from her throughout.

She didn't look too comfortable taking the podium to make her case for director reelection. At final tally 3.76% voted against, and I reckon she was expecting worse. (For background, only 0.08% opposed her election in August 2022, by which time the share price was already down 60% on the offer.)

Tony fared better with a 1.86% 'no' vote, and even got applause from the room.

I suppose it's easy for the longer-suffering shareholders to vent at the person in the room who profited most at their expense in the IPO (reportedly $30M), but to be fair to Ms Robinson her only mention in the IPO prospectus was as an existing shareholder, whereas Tony's name was all over it. He even doubled down in the media that the sky-pie forecasts underpinning the offer price would be met. Can't just wave your magic hands and take that back.

"The board believes that the prospective financial information contained in My Food Bag's product disclosure statement dated February 11, 2021 (PDS) has been prepared with due care and attention, and considers the assumptions, when taken as a whole, to be reasonable at the time of preparing the PDS," Carter said.

"My Food Bag is confident that it will achieve its prospective financial information, but any suggestion that the business will outperform those financial results should be disregarded."

[winner (n)]

Our Cecilia ...and hubby and ALP Trust

Pre IPO she had 21.8 million shares in MFB

Sold 14.3 million into the IPO ...maybe not the $30m touted but at least $25m

So after IPO has 7.4 million shares

In December 2023 bought 7.0 million more at 12.5 cents ($875k) and a few days later another 4.6 million at 15 cents ($687k)

Current holding 19,015,933 shares

[winner (n)]

Hey Basil ...suppose you smiled with this question at ASM

From NBR -

My Food Bagged
At My Food Bag's annual meeting this week, the board was asked whether it had a "man ban" to show good diversity. The question was thrown to director Mark Powell, who said the company didn't discriminate against men, while adding, "Otherwise I don't think myself or [chair] Tony [Carter] would be sitting here". Out of the five directors at My Food Bag, three are female and two are male. As of March 31, the company employed 111 women and 100 men, compared with 111 and 95 respectively in the year prior. My Food Bag's gender pay gap for the year ending March 31 sat at 3.44%, up from 1.35% during the previous corresponding period. Fewer, better paid men, then – not exactly a ban.

[bulltrap]

In December 2023 bought 7.0 million more at 12.5 cents ($875k) and a few days later another 4.6 million at 15 cents ($687k)

Current holding 19,015,933 shares

Kudos to Cecilia for that 'dogfood buyback'. That showed faith in the company and cushioned the share price decline when no-one else would go near it. Stellar trade too - sell high, buy low, go large.

IMO all non-founding directors should have sizeable holdings of that scale, paid for with their own money. It keeps everyone's interests aligned. That goes for all public companies.

[Shareguy]

Just got this email from Southern Cross.

Not sure what to make for dinner? HelloFresh have you covered!

As a Southern Cross member, you can now sign up to HelloFresh and get $100 OFF across your first 5 boxes, followed by a 10% weekly discount for the remainder of your subscription.   

The discount code (automatically applied) entitles you to a voucher for: $30 off your first box (including standard delivery), $20 off your second and third boxes, $15 off your fourth and fifth boxes, and 10% off your sixth to fifty-second boxes (total promotional value of up to $1,298, based on the largest box size and only valid on a household's first fifty-two boxes, excluding upgrades and add-ons).

[Basil]

I think its pretty common that all the food and meal delivery competitors have good offers for new customers.  Nardia offering up to $209 off for new customers of My Food Bag https://www.myfoodbag.co.nz/?&pr=5020SPRING
It'll be interesting to see how MFB has navigated the last six months when they report next month.   Gosh the economy has been in deep recession, there's no doubt about that.  Just as well the market is forward looking and lots of busy customers are getting serious mortgage rate relief when they refix their mortgages now.  Gosh, almost all the main banks are now doing deals at 4.49%, that's a huge reduction on where mortgages were signed over the last 2 years.

Hopefully RBNZ cut 50 bps off the cash rate next week to breath some life into the economy and consumer spending.  My sense is the worst of the economy is now behind us.  Why Worry ? There's always sunshine after rain, these things have always been the same.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_03uXQiz6eY

[Plata]

I reckon it will be pretty flat with the decline in margin offset by interest payment reductions. With food inflation climbing again I think there are better opportunities to be had even if the PE ratio is likely around 10. Maybe if it drops back below 20 cents it could be worth a punt on the hope of OCR cuts easing middle class budgets, because ultimately this is a volume story.

[Shareguy]

I have been looking at this but I'm not jumping at the buy button. The last result to me was a downgrade of sorts. Yes I agree Basil that there is a lot of money coming into mortgage holders accounts however costs are ramping up. They are certainly discounting the boxes. My wife only buys when  she gets a 30 percent discount.

I'm not convinced at current price.

[Basil]

Fair enough guys. I only have a very modest sized position.  I think its more a FY27 and FY28 dividend growth story, although nothing wrong with my estimate of 1.75 cps this year fully imputed, 2.43 cps gross = 11% gross yield.  Looking forward to them reporting their interim result late next month and in effect testing the resilience of this one and seeing how they performed across the bottom of the economic cycle.

[winner (n)]

Signs H1 result will be pretty good

I say sales up 6% on pcp and margins the same as pcp

In middle of next year input costs won't be much of a problem so F27 looking pretty good as well

[Habitz]

MFB turning over a new leaf? Profits branching nicely, but staff celery rising, though lettuce margins holding firm. Green shoots everywhere; looks like a real celery-bration if the business is blooming.

[Habitz]

Was a strong move up on high volume 2.5 to 3 times normal. Could we pass 30 cents this week.

[Basil]

Reporting half year results on 20 November, not long to wait.

I see Hellofresh has come in for a very special mention in the Consumer Yeah Nah awards. 
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/list-of-products-businesses-on-consumer-nzs-anti-awards/7DMRVGDVWBA25P7GSRWNST5WSY/