BANKS

[Waltzing]

Anyone noticed that there are 3 little words in these articles  "Global bankng crisis" ....

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/13/business/sergio-ermotti-ubs-risktakers/index.html

cant happen ever again right?

[kiwi2007]

Morningstar pretty positive on the banks today.

https://www.morningstar.com.au/insights/stocks/245135/opportunities-remain-in-banking-shares

Maybe they're a bit late to the party? Both ANZ and WBC have really pushed on recently - have they got more to go or is it time to take a profit?

[Basil]

ANZ and WBC still on very cheap metrics.

[kiwi2007]

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/which-bank-what-the-brokers-love-and-hate-in-2024

Another report on all the Aussie banks today. ANZ getting an especial push:

"Both Goldman Sachs and Morningstar concur that in the big four, ANZ (ASX: ANZ) is a BUY. This is also reflected by Market Index's broker consensus tool.

Goldman Sachs views further upsides to ANZ and anticipates improving profitability in the institutional business. It is trading at a discount to peers, at $26.55/share.

Tyndall's Brad Potter also recently nominated ANZ as a banking pick for similar reasons.

"ANZ is differentiated from the other Big Four banks as it is underweight retail and has a large institutional bank with strong operating momentum. This is driven, in part, by a growing transaction banking business and a consistently performing trading markets business," Potter said."

WBC not pushed quite as much.

"When it comes to Australia's oldest bank, Market Index's broker consensus tool tips Westpac (ASX: WBC) as a SELL. Morningstar disagrees, viewing it as undervalued and with strong potential.

"We think the share price overlooks the potential for the bank to lower its cost/income ratio and improve ROE, relative to peers," wrote Zaia and Tan.
It's a view shared by Macquarie which recently upgraded Westpac to an 'OUTPERFORM' rating."

[Waltzing]

ANZ been a good ride this last 6 months.

WBC went through that total melt down with the Royal Commission..

It been a restructure case ever since.

[Basil]

Lot less risk buying ANZ in a clear uptrend than HGH in a sustained downtrend.

[winner (n)]

Lot less risk buying ANZ in a clear uptrend than HGH in a sustained downtrend.

That Barrimundi outfit has a decent holding in a few Oz banks

[Waltzing]

US regional Banks ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/01/us-regional-banking-shares-tumble-for-second-straight-day.html

[Waltzing]

BB update for WBC continues ...

wonder how far they have to go...

 

[Waltzing]

Flight to 10 year in the states means is there a lot more to go in the banks in the US?

[Waltzing]

will the property market melt down spill over in the china banks or are the reserves enough to prop up the shakey houses....

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/06/asia-markets.html

talk of the leadership limiting coverage of the china markets on the internet across the population.

[SmallSteps]

Seems that no-one talks about ANZ / WBC shares?
Newbie here with a small amount in both ANZ up 23%, WBC up 18.5%.
What are peoples thoughts on these? Nobody seems particularly interested - is there something I am missing?
Should I dump and run with the little bit of profit & put it somewhere else?
NB I'm not a trader, I'm slowly getting down to a small portfolio that I am happy with leaving relatively as is.
Made some good calls along the way, and some BAD (The Warehouse was painful). Main interest is to whether these are a good long term option or not?

[BlackPeter]

Seems that no-one talks about ANZ / WBC shares?
Newbie here with a small amount in both ANZ up 23%, WBC up 18.5%.
What are peoples thoughts on these? Nobody seems particularly interested - is there something I am missing?
Should I dump and run with the little bit of profit & put it somewhere else?
NB I'm not a trader, I'm slowly getting down to a small portfolio that I am happy with leaving relatively as is.
Made some good calls along the way, and some BAD (The Warehouse was painful). Main interest is to whether these are a good long term option or not?

So hard to predict the future - and I met so far nobody who could get it right (other than by accident).

However - if you look (just as an example) at ANZ. They have (at current SP) a long term P/E of 13.6 (and EPS actually rather consistent over the years), no material growth over the last 10 years and no growth I can see coming. They make every year a bit over $ 2 EPS (apart from really bad years, then it is less) and pay something like 5.x % dividend yield (hardly imputed). Sure - better than putting the money under the mattress, but riskier as government bonds. Wait for the next bad year ... and your income will be less.

And if you look for SP appreciation, I would say the chance for further significant upwards gains is lower than the risks for the next down cycle to start.
But hey - nobody can predict where hype might push the banks before that - hype can do amazing things to the prices of securities - just think at the crypto delusion.

So - I'd say banks can be a great long term option (assuming they don't do a Lehmans's Brothers on you), but not necessarily if you buy the shares closer to the peak than to the trough.

That's where I would see them, but hey - my crystal ball is cloudy as well.

[Waltzing]

sun corp deal may add some extra coins in the pot...

ANZ is restructing its self and may be able to transform into a financial service provider with its new group entity.

What that give it ins relation to the regulator who knows without a lot of reading and access to australian banking experts..

WBC has a shocking record including the Enquiry that decimated the market confidence in the management of the company..

 

[kiwi2007]

WBC has now reached $26 for the fourth time since 2017, each previous time it's  fallen back into the low $20s.

ANZ's in an even stronger uptrend and on good volume too.

However, most broker forecasts are below the current price of both WBC and ANZ according to tradingview.

Both look fully valued to me and I wouldn't be a buyer at these prices but would I sell???.