Politics

[Minimoke]

I found it interesting that the Maori King said there were no treaty principles.

[Waltzing]

Gosh ....

[Waltzing]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/poll-shows-act-leader-david-seymour-and-party-gaining-support-after-waitangi-events/3FQWSZB3TBFCJDDRF26VTWVFIU/

[Untamed]

I take these polls with a grain of salt. I think they are generally meaningless, given the small number of people polled. Would be interested to know what their criteria is for participation. Nobody has ever asked me for my opinion 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/poll-shows-act-leader-david-seymour-and-party-gaining-support-after-waitangi-events/3FQWSZB3TBFCJDDRF26VTWVFIU/

[Waltzing]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election

[Untamed]

Interesting. But the sample sizes of all of those polls were well under 2000 people polled. That is a minuscule sample of the general population. The current poll was a sample of just 1000. I don't see how you can come to any legitimate conclusion about anything, based on 1000 people.

In general conversation with family and friends/aquaintances, so far this year, the people I am hearing from are not overly impressed with anything the government has actioned so far. I, for one, was very surprised to hear Luxon rule out a capital gains tax. That was something I fully expected this coalition government to do.

Time will tell. It is early days. But so far I have nothing to give me any confidence about anything to be honest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election

[Waltzing]

https://www.phdstatistics.com/sample-size-determination.php


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2023-can-political-polls-be-trusted/PZNGV3LZKRCY5J72NAUBRVOWZE/


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll


https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/495051/how-to-read-the-political-polls-10-things-you-need-to-know-ahead-of-the-nz-election


https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/483237/this-election-year-voters-should-beware-of-reading-too-much-into-political-polls


https://www.qualtrics.com/au/experience-management/research/determine-sample-size/

[Basil]

Interesting. But the sample sizes of all of those polls were well under 2000 people polled. That is a minuscule sample of the general population. The current poll was a sample of just 1000. I don't see how you can come to any legitimate conclusion about anything, based on 1000 people.

In general conversation with family and friends/aquaintances, so far this year, the people I am hearing from are not overly impressed with anything the government has actioned so far. I, for one, was very surprised to hear Luxon rule out a capital gains tax. That was something I fully expected this coalition government to do.

Time will tell. It is early days. But so far I have nothing to give me any confidence about anything to be honest.

1000 people polled is pretty much standard practice in N.Z. and usually has a margin of error of a few percent.  It's about getting a poll result with a reasonable margin of error at a reasonable price.  Obviously, it costs a lot more to conduct a poll of 10,000 people than it does 1,000 but the margin of error isn't meaningfully smaller.

At the end of the day people's perceptions of how a Govt is doing this early into their term is driven primarily by their political leanings before the election.  It's really only after a Govt's term of power you can get a real feel for whether their time in power has been beneficial to the country or not.
I believe the Labour led Govt of the last 6 years has left the country in terrible shape economically and their ideology has created a society that's never been more divided.  Without any question in my mind, it was the worst Govt of my lifetime.  Their time was huge on greenie and left leaning ideology and really small in delivering outcomes despite the vast amount of money wasted.

Fact is that political leanings are primarily driven by selfish motivating factors, human nature being what it is.  People who have little want others to pay a wealth tax or a capital gains tax or both, the more the better as long as their benefits can be increased.  Those who have plenty are sick of all the welfare beneficiaries and wingers who contribute nothing, asking for more.  Plenty of people in the middle.    The debate never ends and is tiresome because human nature never changes which is why I don't get involved much in political debates.

[Untamed]

I get this, but we can't continue to only look at what the current government is doing now, in the light of that sentiment. Sure, they may well be "better than Labour" but is that enough? Is that not setting the bar pretty damned low in terms of our expectations of what this government does or achieves over the next three years? I need them to prove now, that they have what it takes to turn things around, and make life better for all of us, not just their "squeezed middle." The reality is, all they needed to win the election, was to present as better than Labour. But post election - we need way more than that in my opinion.

P.S. Basil, please don't turn into Balance. "People who have little" do not always have little because they are lazy or bludgers. There are many reasons. The people you are alluding to are NOT the majority.

Without any question in my mind it was the worst Govt of my lifetime.

[Basil]

I need them to prove now, that they have what it takes to turn things around, and make life better for all of us,

Why do you need something right now you're unlikely to get straight away ?  The economy is like a ship with small rudders, its takes a lot of time to turn things around and some damage can't be fixed.  For example, we seem destined to forever be dependent on imported refined fuel because N.Z. refining has said it would take billions to reinstate the refinery at Marsden point and all the staff they had to run it have moved on.  Speaking to people in the industry, the bitumen we are now getting from Asia is far below the quality that came out of Masden point.  Our roads are a complete mess and the bitumen coming in to fix them is very low grade and probably always will be.  Just one of the messes left by the previous Govt that can't be fixed or only after the investment over time of vast amounts of resources.

If a National led coalition get a second term then perhaps within 6 years, I think they will be able to fix some of the mess.    That's how I see it.

Just make the most of life now with what resources you have.  Your lot in life in your 70's is very unlikely to be as good as it is in your 60's, that's the conclusion I have reached with enjoying things while health allows now, as front and central to my thinking.  A lot of the real pleasures of life are either free or very cheap.  A walk in the park with one's dog or coffee with friends or having your grandkids over for lunch.  No matter what Govt is in power you can enjoy these pleasures.
Just enjoy where you live and be glad you don't live in Gaza or the Ukraine.

[Untamed]

Sorry, that was my poor sentence structure at work 

I didn't mean "right now."

I mean't "What I need now, is for them to prove they have what it takes ... etc."

As in, from this point forward.

Why do you need something right now you're unlikely to get straight away ?

[Basil]

If it means anything to you Untamed, I've chatted with Christopher Luxon at annual meetings of Air N.Z. a few times.  I was very impressed with him, and I don't impress easily.  He strikes me as highly intelligent with a very good ability to listen respectfully too and converse with people from all walks of life. A good center right Christian leader with a very good understanding of what it takes to get a country or business going. I think we're in very good hands.  He's about as different as you could possibly get from that silly little leftist / greenie leaning ideologist with no real business experience as you could get.

[Untamed]

Good to know, although him being a Christian is irrelevant to me, providing he can keep his religious beliefs separate from his job.

He is actually not the one that worries me to be honest. Seymour is the one I am wary of, but so far Luxon appears to be "managing" that risk. We will see.
 

If it means anything to you Untamed, I've chatted with Christopher Luxon at annual meetings of Air N.Z. a few times.  I was very impressed with him, and I don't impress easily.  He strikes me as highly intelligent with a very good ability to listen respectfully too and converse with people from all walks of life. A good center right Christian leader with a very good understanding of what it takes to get a country or business going. I think we're in very good hands.  He's about as different as you could possibly get from that silly little leftist / greenie leaning ideologist with no real business experience as you could get.

[Waltzing]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_(Aristotle)

[Untamed]

Hmmmm ...

For obvious (to anyone who knows me well) reasons, I'm staying away from this one. But thanks for sharing. It was an interesting read.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_(Aristotle)