SKC - SkyCity

[Waltzing]

Distressed assets modelling from AI. for this bad boy of the market..

The interesting thing is the AI models seem to be getting better and better.. it says this bad bad boy is assets undervalued..

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/fbdc1748-a836-43e3-a1ca-f77f03c2f13a

[Waltzing]

well... next july the socially except able part of this business and hopefully the good parts will impact to parts that need some work...(a lot)... well the new start attraction of the business gets some good news...


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/skycitys-nz-international-convention-centre-books-95-events-for-2026-whos-coming/6DQFJWLHVNAJNLHACW63QCQ6FI/

https://coralreefsecc.org/event-calendar/16th-international-coral-reef-symposium

[entrep]

More lawsuits. Holding this really feels like a war of attrition.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/468752

[Basil]

Some people might be tempted to think that all the challenges SKC have faced and are facing are Karma for all the social harm they've caused over the last 30 years.  I have some sympathy with that point of view.

[winner (n)]

Some people might be tempted to think that all the challenges SKC have faced and are facing are Karma for all the social harm they've caused over the last 30 years.  I have some sympathy with that point of view.

Dens of iniquity eh

[entrep]

Anyone differ from the following?

Trading below NTA at ~$0.85 after a brutal 70%+ decline over 5 years. The question is simple: broken business or oversold turnaround?

The bad: Underlying EBITDA down 28% in 1H26. Adelaide is basically worthless after compliance costs. Carded play has structurally reduced NZ gaming revenue. 45% share dilution from the equity raise. No dividend, probably until FY28 at earliest. Allan Gray losing conviction. Online lawsuit just dropped. Market is telling you this business can't earn an adequate return on its assets.

The good: NZICC is finally open with a strong events pipeline. $200m of asset sales targeted by Feb 2027 which would get leverage under 2.0x. NZ online gaming regulation coming late 2026 and SKC has first-mover advantage. Carded play gives them 120% more customer accounts and genuine data for the first time. Trading at ~7.7x EV/EBITDA on trough earnings. ACC and NZ Super buying. The $330m Fletchers claim is free optionality.

Bottom line: If NZICC delivers cross-precinct benefits, asset sales happen, and Adelaide stops bleeding you're buying a monopoly entertainment precinct at half book value. If none of that lands, you're catching a falling knife in a sunset industry.

I'm down bad, but on a 2-3 year view, risk/reward looks skewed to the upside from here?

[Crackity]

There's no shortage of action at SkyCity Entertainment, the New Zealand-listed casino and hotel operator that's nutting out a deal to sell The Grand in Auckland and reviewing its troubled Adelaide asset.
Investment bank UBS has won the mandate to weigh strategic options for $557 million SkyCity's casino in Adelaide's North Terrace, after the decision was flagged at last week's full-year results. But, a much bigger M&A deal is brewing behind closed doors, with sources telling this column that a cashed-up suitor was weighing an all-of-company bid.


AFR Sunday night rumour mill

[Fiordland Moose]

There's no shortage of action at SkyCity Entertainment, the New Zealand-listed casino and hotel operator that's nutting out a deal to sell The Grand in Auckland and reviewing its troubled Adelaide asset.
Investment bank UBS has won the mandate to weigh strategic options for $557 million SkyCity's casino in Adelaide's North Terrace, after the decision was flagged at last week's full-year results. But, a much bigger M&A deal is brewing behind closed doors, with sources telling this column that a cashed-up suitor was weighing an all-of-company bid.


AFR Sunday night rumour mill

archived article, free to view
https://archive.is/StqAB

[Arbroath]

Lazy journalism at the end of that...says they raised at 70c and the shares are now 50c. They might be AUD50c but if that's the reference the raise was at AUD63c at the time I think

[Auto Rower]

Lazy journalism at the end of that...says they raised at 70c and the shares are now 50c. They might be AUD50c but if that's the reference the raise was at AUD63c at the time I think

Interesting Article non the less explains sp activity this mooning

[entrep]

MARKET RELEASE
SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited
(SKC.NZX/SKC.ASX)
25 August 2026

SkyCity response to media speculation


SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited (SkyCity) notes recent media speculation that it is in discussions with Oaktree Capital in relation to a potential takeover of the company.

SkyCity advises that in May 2026, it received a confidential, unsolicited, conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from (i) a special situations fund managed by Oaktree Capital Management, L.P, to acquire all of the issued shares in SkyCity at an indicative price of NZ$0.70 cash per SkyCity share, and (ii) another party at an implied indicative price of NZ$0.75 cash per SkyCity share.(1)

Both indicative proposals were subject to numerous conditions, including a period of at least 8 weeks due diligence and arranging debt financing. The proposals were also conditional on agreement on transaction structure, negotiation of binding documentation, unanimous SkyCity board support, SkyCity shareholder approval, regulatory approvals, and acquirer internal approvals, amongst other matters.

SkyCity was also requested by one or both parties to: (i) not enter into any binding agreement to acquire or dispose of any assets (including under the asset monetisation programme); (ii) provide exclusivity; and (iii) retain its existing debt facilities.

The SkyCity Board carefully considered these indicative proposals, with input from management and advisers. The Board unanimously determined that these proposals did not adequately reflect the underlying value of the company, and that the conditions were problematic. Accordingly, the parties were advised that SkyCity was not prepared to proceed on the terms proposed. SkyCity did indicate to each party that it was prepared to consider engaging further, including providing due diligence information, if they provided a revised proposal which addressed these issues. Neither party submitted a revised, improved proposal.

SkyCity continues to focus on executing on its strategic priorities as set out in its FY26 results announcement on 20 August. This includes the:

i. asset monetisation programme expected to deliver gross proceeds of $275-300m across the unconditional sale of the 99 Albert Street and Victoria Street investment properties for $74.5m; and the non-binding heads of agreement for a sale of the Grand Hotel;

ii. group-wide reset of its operating model, targeting realised benefits of $30m in FY27 and growing to total benefits of $70m in FY28; and

iii. strategic review of SkyCity Adelaide, following the non-binding agreement reached with the South Australian regulator, CBS.


(1) Based on 1,103,055,047 SkyCity ordinary shares outstanding.

[Basil]

Interesting.  I wonder what value SKC place on their chances of success in regard to their huge legal claim against Fletcher Building ?  I tend to agree that the offers received were opportunistic. Nevertheless I'm not a holder or buyer of SKC shares for ESG reasons.