SKC - SkyCity

[Waltzing]

Distressed assets modelling from AI. for this bad boy of the market..

The interesting thing is the AI models seem to be getting better and better.. it says this bad bad boy is assets undervalued..

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/fbdc1748-a836-43e3-a1ca-f77f03c2f13a

[Waltzing]

well... next july the socially except able part of this business and hopefully the good parts will impact to parts that need some work...(a lot)... well the new start attraction of the business gets some good news...


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/skycitys-nz-international-convention-centre-books-95-events-for-2026-whos-coming/6DQFJWLHVNAJNLHACW63QCQ6FI/

https://coralreefsecc.org/event-calendar/16th-international-coral-reef-symposium

[entrep]

More lawsuits. Holding this really feels like a war of attrition.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/468752

[Basil]

Some people might be tempted to think that all the challenges SKC have faced and are facing are Karma for all the social harm they've caused over the last 30 years.  I have some sympathy with that point of view.

[winner (n)]

Some people might be tempted to think that all the challenges SKC have faced and are facing are Karma for all the social harm they've caused over the last 30 years.  I have some sympathy with that point of view.

Dens of iniquity eh

[entrep]

Anyone differ from the following?

Trading below NTA at ~$0.85 after a brutal 70%+ decline over 5 years. The question is simple: broken business or oversold turnaround?

The bad: Underlying EBITDA down 28% in 1H26. Adelaide is basically worthless after compliance costs. Carded play has structurally reduced NZ gaming revenue. 45% share dilution from the equity raise. No dividend, probably until FY28 at earliest. Allan Gray losing conviction. Online lawsuit just dropped. Market is telling you this business can't earn an adequate return on its assets.

The good: NZICC is finally open with a strong events pipeline. $200m of asset sales targeted by Feb 2027 which would get leverage under 2.0x. NZ online gaming regulation coming late 2026 and SKC has first-mover advantage. Carded play gives them 120% more customer accounts and genuine data for the first time. Trading at ~7.7x EV/EBITDA on trough earnings. ACC and NZ Super buying. The $330m Fletchers claim is free optionality.

Bottom line: If NZICC delivers cross-precinct benefits, asset sales happen, and Adelaide stops bleeding you're buying a monopoly entertainment precinct at half book value. If none of that lands, you're catching a falling knife in a sunset industry.

I'm down bad, but on a 2-3 year view, risk/reward looks skewed to the upside from here?

[Crackity]

There's no shortage of action at SkyCity Entertainment, the New Zealand-listed casino and hotel operator that's nutting out a deal to sell The Grand in Auckland and reviewing its troubled Adelaide asset.
Investment bank UBS has won the mandate to weigh strategic options for $557 million SkyCity's casino in Adelaide's North Terrace, after the decision was flagged at last week's full-year results. But, a much bigger M&A deal is brewing behind closed doors, with sources telling this column that a cashed-up suitor was weighing an all-of-company bid.


AFR Sunday night rumour mill

[Fiordland Moose]

There's no shortage of action at SkyCity Entertainment, the New Zealand-listed casino and hotel operator that's nutting out a deal to sell The Grand in Auckland and reviewing its troubled Adelaide asset.
Investment bank UBS has won the mandate to weigh strategic options for $557 million SkyCity's casino in Adelaide's North Terrace, after the decision was flagged at last week's full-year results. But, a much bigger M&A deal is brewing behind closed doors, with sources telling this column that a cashed-up suitor was weighing an all-of-company bid.


AFR Sunday night rumour mill

archived article, free to view
https://archive.is/StqAB

[Arbroath]

Lazy journalism at the end of that...says they raised at 70c and the shares are now 50c. They might be AUD50c but if that's the reference the raise was at AUD63c at the time I think