TWR - Tower Insurance

[winner (n)]

Latest from FB

We expect passive demand for TWR will be in the order of ~9m shares (25 x average daily volume.

Next for inclusion Brisco...

Briscoes share price been going up and down a lot last few days

[Basil]

Court approval forthcoming now just awaiting OIO approval.  Depending on timing of that the shceme could be delayed a little bit.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/440318/attachment/429958/440318-429958.pdf
Posted in here because nobody cares about ARV anymore except those waiting for their $1.70 per share takeover proceeds, but index inclusion for Tower is what really matters.

[Scooter]

What's your thoughts on where the shareprice will sit end of Monday Basil. What's your share holding pattern looking like now after your buys 😊

[Basil]

Anyone guess Scooter where it ends up at close of trading Monday. For what it's worth, I think if it was going to go close to broker valuations, we would have seen more progress towards that price already.  People have to decide for themselves what profit they will take, if any. 

[Basil]

Now we know that ARV's last trading day has been postponed till + 4 business days after receiving OIO approval ...what it means for TWR ? Will the final closing auction ie Index inclusion auction will also get postponed from Monday to NEW last ARV trading day ?? Or they will let it go ahead as notified
Not much difference it should make to ARV if it gets out of index few days before its last trading day !!!! Posted by Alokdhir on the other channel

Nothing was posted by the Dow Jones S&P indices after market close on Friday that I can see so unless there is some announcement by them on Monday morning, I think it's all go to conclude the index inclusion on Monday.  I'd like to think the OIO officials are working this weekend to finish off their approval of the ARV takeover but they're Govt officials not investment bankers lol

[winner (n)]

Nothing was posted by the Dow Jones S&P indices after market close on Friday that I can see so unless there is some announcement by them on Monday morning, I think it's all go to conclude the index inclusion on Monday.  I'd like to think the OIO officials are working this weekend to finish off their approval of the ARV takeover but they're Govt officials not investment bankers lol

What you reckon will happen Monday / Tuesday ..price wise that is

[Shareguy]

Always good to lock in a profit, especially with the run up in the share price. I'm not picking a big increase in sp from here. FB and Craig's say 8m to 10m of buying on inclusion. I'm also not expecting a big drop in the sp either. The fundamentals are excellent with the capital return next year and Craig's have a increased divi each year to FY26. Also it's trading at a 38 percent discount to its pairs. On saying that the next disaster could be anytime so caution is warranted.

[Basil]

What you reckon will happen Monday / Tuesday ..price wise that is

See post #198 above mate. 

[LoungeLizard]

Either taking profits or holding for the divvy/capital return boost are both sound imo.
Arrive late at the party (to make sure it's a good one) and don't stay too long is my general approach to investing in stocks like Tower. If there's a bit of a bump next week ($1.50???) , I'll probably cash up some, or all of my holding. And, of course, it helps if there's another party just starting up down the road...  

[Left Field]

Either taking profits or holding for the divvy/capital return boost are both sound imo.

Holders will hold.....folders will fold.

From a TA perspective TWR remains a chart of great beauty.

Today's announcement confirming a share buy-back early in 2025 on top of the recent index announcements should  add further support to the SP growth trajectory.....https://www.nzx.com/announcements/440343

[Scooter]

Yes agreed. While it may track down after today a little it still has runway to climb further. Results out soon plus 2025 guidence to come.    Certainty the price has not gone where I thought it would one inclusion was announced.   Wasn't expecting it to stay at the $1.40 mark

[LoungeLizard]

Holders will hold.....folders will fold.

From a TA perspective TWR remains a chart of great beauty.

Today's announcement confirming a share buy-back early in 2025 on top of the recent index announcements should  add further support to the SP growth trajectory.....https://www.nzx.com/announcements/440343

Yep, each to their own. On balance there's probably more to be gained from holding than folding, at least for a few months. The capital return in March has been calculated as being 12c per share and there's a 5c divvy to come before then. And even without all of that, Tower are, by most parameters, still undervalued. So yes, I would agree that SP growth is likely in the months ahead.
Balancing that is the risk of a bad weather year that goes beyond TWR's re-insurance levels. I've made a deal with Mother Nature not to throw the really wild weather at us until winter. By then I plan to have folded and left the table. 

[Basil]

17.15m shares changed hands today, mostly at the close at $1.40 final match price.  Up about 17 cps (13.8%) on circa $1.23 about a month ago when some dog let the cat out of the bag index inclusion was highly likely in late October.  Interestingly, a 13.8% gain is about the midpoint of what I have come to expect as the average gain from index inclusion, (5-25%) and suggests index inclusion on the prospect of regular quarterly rebalance on the NZX50 which had been talked about a lot already on both forums, had not unduly already affected the share price as of late Sept.

Match price was lower than many expected because of one key point, in my opinion.  You cannot escape the plain fact of the matter that the insurance industry is a business of making money from averaging risk over time so no matter what the company says about increasing premiums in the hope of covering the increased risk of climate change, (getting worse at an exponential rather than a linear rate?), the fact is that average eps over the last 5 years, including this year's great performance has been lackluster.  In fact, in analysis over the weekend, I calculated average eps of only 5.4 cps for the last 7 years notwithstanding this year's cracker performance moved the needle a lot.   How much better or worse average performance is in the next 7 years is frankly anyone's guess, the jury is well and truly out on that one.    Maybe all the work on adjusting risk-based pricing will do the trick and substantially lift eps going forward on average across different weather cycles over the years ahead, or maybe not, only time will tell.

[850man]

TWR's performance is mainly down to El Nino vs La Nina

[Shareguy]

FB have released latest report

Stock performances and valuation
Over the last three months, the listed Australasian insurance sector has produced solid stock performances. TWR leapt +47%, SUN rose +8%, IAG moved +7% higher, and QBE ended up +2%. Over twelve months, TWR (+115%), SUN (+30%), IAG (+29%), and QBE (+7%) have all risen as the industry has benefitted from a strong rates cycle, mild weather and robust investment returns.�������������� TWR trades at 8.7x 12-month forward earnings (including NZ$50m of large events allowance), a discount to its own history and its Australasian insurance peers (median PE multiple of 17.4x).