TWR - Tower Insurance

[Left Field]

Many of those risks are carried by insurance companies.  Try getting a loan, whether it's a home, vehicle, business or livestock without insurance cover and see how far you get with the application.

Brilliant Basil.  Now you're getting the idea. Sounds like a good business plan.

That's why Suncorp got out of Banking to concentrate on Insurance.......(and why I questioned your statement "Luck plays a part in investing, no question about it.  The sun has shone for TWR this year and its been raining cats and dogs for HGH.  Who's to say it won't be the other way around next year ?")

https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/suncorp-to-concentrate-on-affordable-insurance-after-divesting-bank-ceo-says-20230116-p5cctz.html

[Basil]

ANZ seem to be doing very well after buying their banking operations.
Here's a "radical" theory.  Maybe there's good money in banking and insurance     Turners seem to be doing more than okay offering finance and insurance.

[LoungeLizard]

Another good day at the office, after SP action seemed to have stalled.

[Left Field]

Another good day at the office, after SP action seemed to have stalled.

Index inclusion and share buy back to come.....  SP won't stall for long.

[lorraina]

But wait......there's more................5 cent divie for Christmas too....

[Basil]

All these gurus in agreement, dirt cheap fundamentals, brilliant looking TA, NZX50 index inclusion looking certain before Christmas,, record financial result and final dividend and buy-back to come and last but not least Forbar reckon worth $1.70 and we know they're always conservative lol.
What could possibly go wrong, seems too easy and a one way bet.  Heck, even my good mate KW encouraged me to get more today and that tipped the scales, who am I, just a mere Beagle to resist all these factors, so I even talked myself into believing all the hype and got some more today.  What could possibly go wrong lol  Winner reckons as much as $2.  Maybe he's right ?

[Waltzing]

Gosh its a Winner(->*.nn)! 

[LoungeLizard]

Nobody at all wanting to sell. Too much good news on the horizon - a juicy dividend, share buyback and index inclusion. There's talk of $1.50 - or even more - by Xmas and they could well be right.

[Basil]

NZX50 index inclusion highly likely to happen on 22 October 2024, watch out for the action in the 15 minute closing match process on 21 October.
I've had my Beagle nose to the ground and found something interesting that leads me to conclude there's a very good chance of above happening in my opinion.

My thesis is as follows and has not been well recognized in terms of timing by the brokers yet.
Craigs and Forbar have Tower in the box seat as next cab off the rank for index inclusion.  It's a very clear and comfortable first place for inclusion with considerable daylight between it and the second and third place contenders, Briscoes and Napier Port.  I have seen Forbar's index research and in my opinion their index stuff is second to none, notwithstanding they got liquidity concerns wrong recently.

Both brokers have said its highly probable Tower will enter the index at the next rebalance in mid December but here is what they are missing.  Tower is highly likely to enter the index as soon as one of the constituent members exits it.  So which company will be next to exit the index and when will that happen?

Arvida are under takeover offer and its widely anticipated the completion of same is a near certainty.  There's a special meeting later this month.  The scheme implementation booklet is here.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/437138/attachment/426102/437138-426102.pdf
Page 6 Last day of trading in Arvida Shares 21 October 2024 (Arvida Shares are expected to be suspended from trading on
the NZX Main Board from close of trading on this date)
Shortly before this date, (from memory under takeovers its less than the usual 2 weeks notice with index rebalancing) Dow Jones S&P indices will announce Tower as the replacement for Arvida effective 22 October.  There is likely to be a shorter window for the usual scramble for index tracking funds to buy in and the final 15 minute match price process on 21 October could be very interesting.

How much of this is known to institutions already is anyone's guess as is the question of how much general index inclusion premium is already in the price.  Index inclusion at this time is not certain and is subject to Arvida shareholders voting in favour of the takeover.  Please exercise caution with thinking this insight of index inclusion and its likely timing is sure to lead to future profits.  The shares have already gone up a heck of lot this year.

[Shareguy]

Great post Basil.

I would have thought that most funds would not start buying until there is certainty. Apart from the inclusion the fundamentals are excellent with only a couple of weeks of the year to go. The buyback alone is worth 12 cents a share.

[Basil]

I agree Shareguy which is why I've added a few more this week.  Index tracking funds are reactive to news, not proactive.

[LoungeLizard]

Difficult to know how much of the index inclusion is already priced in - there has been a heck of a lot of SP action in recent weeks and it can't just be us gifted individuals who are in the know
But I do agree there will be some sort of bump - whether it's a big one like with HLG, or not so much as in TRA we will have to see.
Regardless, the fundamentals are compelling, the TA is as they  say "a thing of beauty' , there's a divvy to come and as noted the buyback will be worth something like 12c per share. Those who got in early have made a mint, but there's still money to be made I feel.

[lorraina]

The share buy back will mean fewer shares being on issue,which should result in eps and dps increasing..

[KW]

See how much easier it is to make money when you dont buy shares in a downtrend?  

[Basil]

Even easier, just give the guys at Discovery your money and let them do all the work for awesome returns.