Argosy Property

[Waltzing]

Note: the ARG share price does not always move in direct reversion to the bond yields.. it appears to be at the moment but a long look at the data points would be required and there are period of up to a year where it does not.

[Waltzing]

oh dear it popped back up again as the 10 year yield also popped up..

sometimes things go together.... until they dont...looks like that 1.00 was a false hope... for now...

[winner (n)]

Govt 10 Year still going up - could be 5.0% later this week

So ARG et al share prices under pressure again

[Dolcile]

Not specific to ARG, but recently buying a NZ REIT fund has gone down as one of my bad investment decisions.  It has been smashed, and it continues.

[Apollo]

Not specific to ARG, but recently buying a NZ REIT fund has gone down as one of my bad investment decisions.  It has been smashed, and it continues.

I can only guess that this is a reflection of where people think interest rates are headed. Not sure where to look for the best indication but here is a graph of the 10 year US treasury yield

https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart.

Looking at the NZ10yr if you bought in October last year interest rates would explain some of the fall. Recessionary conditions affecting tenants might also be an issue but the REITS would tend to have the biggest and best tenants.
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/NZ10Y-NZ

Gold's fall might be partly explained by the possibility of rising interest rates.

[Ferg]

Not specific to ARG, but recently buying a NZ REIT fund has gone down as one of my bad investment decisions.  It has been smashed, and it continues.

If you thought it was good value and/or a good investment at the previously higher price, would it now be a better investment to buy at a lower price?  Or has your reason for buying changed?

[Waltzing]

yes at the moment its tracking the 10's but then these are defensive stocks and when they wont track it forever..

[Apollo]

Just remembered winner69 tracks KPG with the 10yr (I assume govt 10 yr bond). You could follow him to find good times to buy property stocks.

It would be interesting if Ray Dalio is right and we have entered an upward trajectory in the long-term interest rate cycle.

Jeremy Grantham had an interesting theory regarding inflation. He thinks it is likely we will get more price rises as commodities become more scare. All the easy oil has been found all the large easy to mine copper deposits and other minerals have probably been found. All speculation but it would be interesting if interest rates slowly rose over time a lot of current low yield current investments would not look good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8sPQom4cnc

You might not want to watch it all but at the start Jeffrey Gundlach says he is formulating a theory we might not see interest rates fall like they did in the first 40years of his career. he is not arrogant enough to state it as a fact but he talks about some things he has watched that might indicate it is happening. Obviously US based.

[Dolcile]

If you thought it was good value and/or a good investment at the previously higher price, would it now be a better investment to buy at a lower price?  Or has your reason for buying changed?

I'd buy more but I've got my full portfolio allocation. 

[Basil]

Not specific to ARG, but recently buying a NZ REIT fund has gone down as one of my bad investment decisions.  It has been smashed, and it continues.

I feel you mate. Its been painful.  I think the vast majority of investors have suffered a fair bit of pain since the war started. Its been hard to find places to hide. Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq all down 7%+ this month, many other overseas markets, much worse. Even Gold and Silver have been smashed in recent weeks. Gosh, I would have thought they'd be a safe haven in a storm, go figure? 

[Cod]

Share values go up and down, it's not a new concept and no worrying is not going to change anything so why do that. This current issue will be over at some point and then there will be a different one, the wheels on the bus go round and round. Being overly concerned about a particular moment in time might be a sign that a particular investment or particular stratagy is not for you, listen to that sign it's trying to educate you.

[BlackPeter]

I feel you mate. Its been painful.  I think the vast majority of investors have suffered a fair bit of pain since the war started. Its been hard to find places to hide. Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq all down 7%+ this month, many other overseas markets, much worse. Even Gold and Silver have been smashed in recent weeks. Gosh, I would have thought they'd be a safe haven in a storm, go figure? 

As indicated earlier - have a look at WW2!

Gold price actually peaked in 1934 (when Hitler got established) and stayed high with another height in 1939 (when WW2 started).

Throughout WW2 gold price dropped already by something like 25 % - no matter how loud the bombs ... and after WW2 gold price nearly halved. It took gold several decades to reach the 1934 value again.

I'd say we have now all the idiots running WW3 firm established and the years to come will show us how many bombs are still left to explode. Not sure though I'd expect gold price to keep going up form here. Maximium in risks has been reached, and now its just people suffering before humans decide that negotiation is the better way. Given the intelligence and age of the  curent strongmenclass - give it a decade or two, but don't expect gold prices to keep rising ...

[Raven]

There are important differences between way back WW2 times and now which probably affect the gold price. For example it was illegal for most Americans to own private gold from April 5, 1933, to December 31, 1974. President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102 on April 5, 1933, requiring citizens to deliver most gold coins, bullion, and certificates to the Federal Reserve to combat the Great Depression. This restriction was fully lifted by President Gerald Ford in 1974.

[BlackPeter]

There are important differences between way back WW2 times and now which probably affect the gold price. For example it was illegal for most Americans to own private gold from April 5, 1933, to December 31, 1974. President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102 on April 5, 1933, requiring citizens to deliver most gold coins, bullion, and certificates to the Federal Reserve to combat the Great Depression. This restriction was fully lifted by President Gerald Ford in 1974.

Sure - things are always different. How do they say - history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.

One thing which will stay is the influence of greed and fear creating cycles.

... and absolutely - anybody who wants to change their last shirt for a gold bullion - go for it! You may or may not be lucky.

[winner (n)]

NZ 10 Year Govt still creeping up

Not good for likes of Argosy