Investing / Holding / Selling / Rebalancing

[Left Field]

Today's GDP figs support claims that NZ may avoid /survive a recession (well, so far)

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/09/gdp-figures-new-zealand-avoids-recession-after-1-7-percent-growth-recorded.html

Also, to repeat the concluding para in Basil's above post......

"Overall though, the New Zealand earnings season has proven much better than feared. Despite rising interest rates, and elevated levels of inflation, corporate New Zealand still appears to be in good shape. Companies with strong, defensive business models, and robust pricing power appear to be doing the best, but there are also many companies which are leveraged to the ongoing reopening of the global economy. A weak currency has also been supportive for our exporters. Many companies are sharing the spoils with shareholders, through higher dividends and buybacks. It is also saying something that the share of weight of positive results was enough to overshadow negative sentiment drivers from offshore, including a hawkish Fed. What recession?"

[KW]

Do you think maybe they just redefined the meaning of GDP? 

[Plata]

Exactly. As per stats NZ June Quarter GDP growth was 1.7% and June Quarter CPI inflation was 1.7%, IE real GDP growth of 0%. Funny that CPI came out exactly the same as GDP growth huh, almost makes you wonder if they just make it up as they go?

[KW]

Words of Wisdom 
"The goal during a bear market is not to make lots of money, it's to survive with your account intact so when the next bull arrives you can compound capital instead of just digging out of a hole. Amateur traders want too much too fast. They are impatient and lack that vision."

https://twitter.com/markminervini/status/1572587923001999360

[Fiordland Moose]

Words of Wisdom 
"The goal during a bear market is not to make lots of money, it's to survive with your account intact so when the next bull arrives you can compound capital instead of just digging out of a hole. Amateur traders want too much too fast. They are impatient and lack that vision."

https://twitter.com/markminervini/status/1572587923001999360

Elvis knew a bit about bear markets.

Only fools rush in.

[winner (n)]

Exactly. As per stats NZ June Quarter GDP growth was 1.7% and June Quarter CPI inflation was 1.7%, IE real GDP growth of 0%. Funny that CPI came out exactly the same as GDP growth huh, almost makes you wonder if they just make it up as they go?

The GDP number of 1.7% is inflation adjusted (ie at 2009/2010) - nominally it was +3.4%

[Plata]

Ah yes you are right. I missed the fine print  . Not so shabby then is it!

[Basil]

Words of Wisdom 
"The goal during a bear market is not to make lots of money, it's to survive with your account intact so when the next bull arrives you can compound capital instead of just digging out of a hole. Amateur traders want too much too fast. They are impatient and lack that vision."

https://twitter.com/markminervini/status/1572587923001999360

Well said.  I feel is been really hard work this last 12 months...frustratingly slow to accrue value in my portfolio but in truth the last 12 months have been brutal on the NZX and almost all other bourses.  Fact is this is a game at the moment of he who loses the least is the winner and even keeping your capital intact over the last year is something that I think is a very satisfactory accomplishment indeed.

Better times will come in due course.

[winner (n)]

Ah yes you are right. I missed the fine print  . Not so shabby then is it!

Numbers being the same prob made you jump to conclusions ........easy done

Like you'd possibly agree with me if I said 225,000 is a 1/4 of a 1,000,000 (billion) ...... esp if I lead with pointing out 25,000 is a 1/4 of 100,000 eh

[Shareguy]

Sold my last parcel of ATM today and half my SKT. Both have been very profitable for me, but I am seeing better opportunities.

There are a number of companies that are going to benefit from our falling dollar.

[Left Field]

Nice to feel some overdue love in my portfolio these last few days.

Been a long winter.

Be interesting to see how the market ends today following the RBNZ announcement.

[lorraina]

https://sharecafe.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=c2c1464dc7900c4f66c3a574d&id=d1966a91b6&e=338561e893

[Basil]

I don't get this market.    Inflation is much higher and stickier than expected in the US.  Bonds rates increase and the market moves an initial futures lead decline of about 2.5% to an increase later in the day of about the same 2.5%, a whopping 5% market movement in one day, the highest intraday market percentage movement according to CNBC since the massive initial disruptions caused by Covid in March 2020.

Makes my head spin.  Is there any point trying to read this or trade this or is it best for the old doggie to curl up, lick his wounds and play possum and do absolutely nothing ?

[Shareguy]

Agree Basil. We are in strange times. I guess the market today is saying inflation has peaked. Tomorrow might be different.

[Plata]

Believe the rally was caused by a comment made during the fed minutes, that implied they would take financial markets into account when making interest rate hike decisions. Think people decided that reduces the risk of further fed induced market plunges. Still, core cpi continues to inflate so I'm not at all tempted by this rally, there is still much work ahead of the fed.