ERD - Eroad

[Foghorn]

Interesting to note in the latest investor presentation that the installed base in the US has fallen from 107k in H2 24 to 104k in H2 25. There's a profitable business in here, but meaningful growth is another matter. Currently selling on a P/E of 200.  A trade bidder doing the synergy sums on the $59m of corporate and development cash costs can be the only way to square the valuation circle. But why would they rush? A dominant position in the NZ market but really nothing in the US and Australia. Compare that to XRO on a P/E of 137, offering strong market positions in Australia and the Uk as well as NZ,together with footholds in other territories.

[Basil]

Wecome to the fourm Foghorn, an excellent first post.  Many people including myself think the likes of XRO's valuation is also wildly overdone.

Some speculation on the other channel by well respected poster Ronaldson that ERD will replace Manawa when the scheme of arrangement is implemented on 9 July.   I think Ronaldson is wrong and NPH are FAR more likely to be the one included in the index.

[Ferg]

Slight downgrade for FY26 and a re-prioritisation back to Australia & NZ.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/460917

Also a bunch of Management & Governance changes.  SP has been caned down 36% as I post this.

[winner (n)]

'slight downgrade' is lower sales but the lower sales coming from a non renewal of contract from Feb which implies that a full year impact is quite significant seeing they have a March year end

The cash flow margin sort of says cash flow was expected to be about $20m and now could be as low as $10m ...ouch

[Ferg]

First of three perhaps?

[Gerald]

The cash flow margin sort of says cash flow was expected to be about $20m and now could be as low as $10m ...ouch

Is that to the firm or to equity holders... Not entirely clear.

Anyway looks like the chair is now on $600k or so, maybe this can make ERD the first nzx company with triplet CEOs.

[HAWKDOG]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peiaCwp_qu0

FYI - ERD profiled on Equity mates podcast - at 17 min mark.

podcast came out before big drop.