RYM-Ryman

[Shareguy]

Interesting. Just come back from a (actually longer than expected) trip through Singapore, Germany and Southern Australia.

One of the things I learned is that different people do like different places. Maybe its just that some of the retirement villages need to learn how to find the communities who want to live there.

Maybe they just need to replace their marketing manager?

Welcome home BP

[Shareguy]

RYM is the least preferred by the professional analysts !!

Yes but they can be just as wrong as us folks.

[KW]

Only time will tell if a strong buy or not currently. Every report I have seen says that we are going to have a big shortage in the future. 

A shortage is when supply is not sufficient to meet demand.  If units cost $200k then there would indeed be a shortage, as everyone would want one.  If units cost $2M there is no shortage, as few people would be able to afford them.  

You can have a large demographic, and still price your product in a way that removes demand. 

For $200k you can now put a 2 bedroom granny flat on your section and move your parents in.  It will be interesting to see what the uptake of this option is going forward.

[Basil]

What page of the annual report do you get the 150m head office costs from. Genuinely cannot find a figure close to that.

DYOR - I think that figure may have been mentioned in the annual meeting recently, check the transcript, or it may have been in an analysts report.

[BlackPeter]

A shortage is when supply is not sufficient to meet demand.  If units cost $200k then there would indeed be a shortage, as everyone would want one.  If units cost $2M there is no shortage, as few people would be able to afford them. 

You can have a large demographic, and still price your product in a way that removes demand. 

For $200k you can now put a 2 bedroom granny flat on your section and move your parents in.  It will be interesting to see what the uptake of this option is going forward.

Hmm - I guess if we comnpare prices, we perhaps should do a fair job.

Not sure, how far your $200k go. Are you sure, you included taxes, rates and all the changes you need to do to your property just to fit it in?

Are you sure, you even included the full granny flat? I note the average pice for a 50sqm granny flat in NZ is already $250k (OK, this is what Google AI tells me and it is supposed to include the taxes ...)

Are you sure you entered whatever the amount is you need to pay for a bowling green, a free of charge gym and a pool?

Had a thought about all the additional jobs which need to be paid by somebody?

While I am sure, that there are plenty of other ways to look after our elderlies ... we need to look at the full costs as well as the full benefits.

[mike2023]

Wife's mother has dementia and mobility issues and her sister has her at home still. You have no idea how difficult.

[Hectorplains]

Are you sure, you even included the full granny flat? I note the average pice for a 50sqm granny flat in NZ is already 250 m2.

I think you mean $250k?  That's $5k a sqm.  That's top end, not average.   

[mike2023]

I think you mean $250k?  That's $5k a sqm.  That's top end, not average.   
[/quote
The smaller you build the higher per sq. A lot of expenses in kitchen bathroom etc. A little extra floor and roof isn't expensive.

[BlackPeter]

I think you mean $250k?  That's $5k a sqm.  That's top end, not average.   

Yes, I did mean that. Didn't do a disertation, but google AI calls it average. Obviously, still means that there are cheaper ones around.

[Basil]

Only time will tell if a strong buy or not currently. Every report I have seen says that we are going to have a big shortage in the future. The property market will recover, it always does. Once the current overhang has been soaked up we will see growth.  I see this as a long term play with a business that has taken the medicine and will be lean and mean for when that happens.

I'm in the doubting Thomas camp.  I agree with Don Brash's view that house price rises over the three decades to the peak in 2021 is unsustainable and what we witnessed over that timeframe, (which encompassed the early successful years for RYM when it enjoyed first mover advantage), will never reoccur because it was driven by structural changes in society with many families going from 1 income to 2 incomes. 
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976523954/don-t-bet-on-house-prices-rising-faster-than-incomes.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=More+borrowers+fix+for+one+year+as+rates+fall

I also think for RYM and FBU for that matter too, the cockroaches will keep on coming...

[KW]

I see Ryman are now closing down care facilities within villages.  That diminishes the prospect of selling the independent units there, and will require their village residents to move out when needing future care.  I wonder how many more will be closed?
Thats their brand proposition up in smoke

https://www.chrislynchmedia.com/news-items/breaking-ryman-to-close-care-facilities-at-two-christchurch-villages-sparking-concern-over-aged-care-model/

[Greekwatchdog]

This is what happens when Govts underfund the sector. Why should the RV companies shoulder the burden?

RYM did mention they were going to do this a few months ago. Reality bites sadly.

[Shareguy]

This is what happens when Govts underfund the sector. Why should the RV companies shoulder the burden?

RYM did mention they were going to do this a few months ago. Reality bites sadly.

Exactly. Unless the government changes the funding model this will continue.  Where people go is the question.....

[Greekwatchdog]

Exactly. Unless the government changes the funding model this will continue.  Where people go is the question.....

I do not know RAD's business model well but from what I can see they seem to have a niche below the larger RV companies so don't have the large costs associated.

There are smaller operators out there, just who pays the costs of the resident moving?  RYM?

[Shareguy]

Well great to see Ryman heading towards $3. The ASX Listing, declining interest rates, improving housing market sales all helping. Sums update today also shows that things aren't too bad.

Disc: My largest New Zealand Holding.