RYM-Ryman

[Ferg]

CFO leaves end of July....looks like an internal appointment.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/453743

How long was he in the CFO seat?

[Dolcile]

2 years, almost exactly.

[Minimoke]

As if RYM didnt need more bad news, it was a Ryman home that lost the elderly dementia patient that has now been missing for 6 days in Christchurch.  Just let her wander off after a few hours of being there. 

The body was found in a derelict house in the weekend, not far from her original homes. Managed to wander over / around Hagley Park in the cold to get there.

[Turkey]

Call me dumb or cruel..but why aren't all dementia patients once they get to an agreed clinical stage that they are high risk ...either microchipped or have a non removable gps locator band or necklace.

Dementia patients have been wandering off since Adam was a cowboy...we micro chip cats and dogs really it not that bad would it?. at that age plenty of soft skin folds to hide it.

Too many of these wandering off cases end badly. Quite often by simple human mistakes...at least when the human mucks up either carer or patient...at least they could be found quickly and hopefully alive and safe.

I don't think old frail people can survive long in places like South Island climate at this time of year. It's very sad story but surely in today technology driven world there could be some better solutions. This case was needless death.

The cost of a gps band or microchipped is far outweighed by cost of time of police and search and rescue when their asked to find a needle in a haystack


Anyway just my thoughts.

[Basil]

What do you guys make of the poor sales cadence at RYM compared to SUM ?
Comparing chalk and Cheese?

[lorraina]

SUM going forward.
RYM going backwards.

[Shareguy]

Great update. Market thinks so as well..

Gross contracts (lead indicator) have continued to improve, climbing to 91% of the last two prior-year comparatives, up from 75% in Q4 FY25 and 60% in Q3 FY25. This uplift reflects a sustained emphasis on sales effectiveness across a range of initiatives including targeted promotions and sales incentives, price optimisation, and continued investment in front-line development.

FY26 sales of ORAs are currently tracking towards the upper end of the previously guided 1,100 – 1,300 (FY25: 1,523).

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/454880

[snapiti]

appears pretty desperate on the face of it that RYM use this sort of metric for comparison, 90% of shit previous results WTF

[Basil]

Total sales were 11% below the same period last year, with resales (down 5%) performing better than new sales (down 28%).

For mine, I note this decline comes on the back of record level's of unsold stock.
The way they are radically reducing the build rate this year on the back of 2 x $Billion dollar capital raises in the last two years tells you they have a systemic problem with their ability to sell their stock.  As I suggested earlier today, comparing RYM and SUM really is comparing Chalk and Cheese. 

[KW]

Will be interesting to see their cashflow figures.  You can always sell more if you lower prices enough.  But the lower ORA revenue plus the years free service fees is not going to help their operational cashflow situation.  Sales numbers are not everything.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars Review

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) delivered an encouraging 1Q26 sales update, with new sales in line with our run rate and resales +12% ahead. Encouragingly, forward-looking contracted sales continue to recover and are now running at ~90% of their two-year trailing, seasonally adjusted run rate, up from 75% in the prior quarter. One swallow does not make a summer, but we view this as an important step in de-risking the investment case. The key risk since RYM's pricing strategy change and dramatic drop-off in sales has been that it would build resales inventory at a high rate, forcing RYM to buy back units—creating a meaningful cash flow drag. Current resales levels remain insufficient to halt inventory build, but this update is a clear step in the right direction and should materially reduce the rate of inventory build. We are less concerned by continued weak new sales, as inventory can be managed down by further reducing deliveries. NEUTRAL.

What's changed?
Earnings: Annuity earnings increased +16%/+6%/+5% over FY26/FY27/FY28 on higher resale gains, care fees, and lower interest.
Target price: Increased to NZ$2.85 (from NZ$2.65) due to roll-forward and earnings upgrades.
Positive sales update
RYM delivered a positive 1Q26 sales update and now expects FY26 total sales to reach the top end of its 1,100–1,300 range. We lift our FY26 estimate by +50 sales to ~1,290. 1Q26 resales of 264 units were down just -5% year-on-year, despite a material drop-off in contracted sales six months earlier (reflecting contracts-to-settlement lag). New sales were 73 in 1Q26, down -28% on 1Q25, but annualised are in line with our FY26 forecast. RYM's ILU and serviced apartment sales mix has remained steady versus FY25.

De-risking the investment case
With ~1,200 ORAs vacated annually and growing, RYM needs >300 quarterly resales to keep unit inventory steady. As RYM buys back units not sold within six months, the cash flow drag from inventory growth can be meaningful. While 1Q26 likely saw resale inventory build, we come away more confident that RYM has begun to rebuild sales momentum and can lift its resale run-rate above unit turnover in the medium term. We now expect RYM to be around free cash flow breakeven in FY26.

Headwinds alleviating
Two key headwinds of recent years have begun to ease for RYM and the sector. First, turnover in the NZ housing market has improved—year-to-date sales are meaningfully up year-on-year and broadly in line with pre-COVID levels. Corroborating this, both Summerset (SUM) and RYM have delivered positive sales updates. Second, the recent NZ government care funding round delivered an above-inflation (+4%) annual uplift to care fees, which, combined with robust occupancy, should support care profitability.

[KW]

We are less concerned by continued weak new sales, as inventory can be managed down by further reducing deliveries. NEUTRAL.

This is a bit naive.  First you need to ask yourself WHY they are having weak sales.  If its because the customer does not like the new high density model of villages, and are preferring to buy into their older villages that dont look like old people prisons, then this is a problem that is not going to go away.  

[Greekwatchdog]

This is a bit naive.  First you need to ask yourself WHY they are having weak sales.  If its because the customer does not like the new high density model of villages, and are preferring to buy into their older villages that dont look like old people prisons, then this is a problem that is not going to go away. 

WTF does "people prisons" mean? No one is forced into these and they certainly haven't committed a crime to be in one.
I visited my Aunt and Uncle in Chch at Rymans Northwoods property and was very impressed with what I saw.

No one was complaining.

DISC, hold OCA and SUM

[KW]

WTF does "people prisons" mean? No one is forced into these and they certainly haven't committed a crime to be in one.
I visited my Aunt and Uncle in Chch at Rymans Northwoods property and was very impressed with what I saw.

No one was complaining.

DISC, hold OCA and SUM

It means that their new villages look like institutions not like spacious gated communities that resemble actual villages of the Ye Olde English countryside style. 

Do old people want to live in an institutional environment or do they want to live in a single storey villa with a garden, a garage, and privacy from the neighbours?

RYM changed the product, trying to cram as many housing units as possible into a village, and the result is very unattractive.  So its no wonder that the older villages are performing better.  Obvously the people who buy them wont be complaining, but the problem is that people arent buying them. 

Battery farming old people may not be a lucrative as RYM investors think.

[Basil]

A picture says a 1000 words. This type of village https://www.rymanhealthcare.co.nz/retirement-villages/auckland/murray-halberg is very different to this type https://www.summerset.co.nz/find-a-village/auckland/summerset-at-karaka/