HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[Basil]

yes appears its only going one way from here and thats up ..

Great week and great start to the index inclusion process...I feel an appropriate song coming on....ah yes....that's the one
Hold on, hold on, hold on...the only way is up https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjD3EVC1-zU

[winner (n)]

Just as well 'peacockers' don't participate in Tony's spending surveys

Report says 25% of respondents intending to spend less on clothes

Any way inconsequential inso far as HLG group profits go ...but interesting insights

https://www.tonyalexander.nz/wp-content/uploads/TV-Spending-Plans-Survey-May-2023.pdf

[Basil]

Interesting, thanks for sharing.
HLG understand their target market very well.  Young people really, really keen to look cool and fit in.
These days most of these people are deeply imbedded in social media, TikTok, Instagram, Fakebook, you name it.  No surprise that HLG targets its advertising through these channels.   I would think only a tiny percentage of HLG customers would have a mortgage.  Most of their customers would be benefitting from the record high employment rate and fast rising wages for in demand young employees.

Should be an interesting week for HLG.

[Waltzing]

Ok in other words everyone has enjoyed a few years in the sun . Those bug filled summers were pretty awesome and now the rains here its off to AUS to make a TON more money for anyone can walk to the airport or take their new electric skate board with them...

 Will it matter to the DIV if sales are stagnate in NZ while over the next decade AUS continues to sail away from NZ GDP wise?

HLG will SALE away with them...

[Basil]

No it won't matter.  Apart from many other differences between the retailers one of the biggest from a valuation consideration perspective is that as discussed before Glassons Au is a high growth proven performer with a vast runway of growth ahead and Glassons Australia sales will soon exceed total group N.Z. sales.  Briscoes and the Warehouse simply do not have that key attribute.  HLG deserves a significant PE premium for that but it might take quite a while for that to eventuate. 

In the meantime, it would be nice if we at least got back to the long run average PE of 12.5 this week.

My updated forecasted FY23 earnings is 63 cps,   With a long run average PE of 12.5 x $0.63 = fair value in the short term is $7.88.

[Basil]

Looks like its all go for PPH to be delisted and HLG included in the NZX50.  Final High Court Orders issued and NZX notice of intention to delist circulated. 
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PPH/411065/393911.pdf
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PPH/411076/393924.pdf

[Scooter]

So what's the count at so far.   By my count 500k shares acquired out of 1.8mill needed.  Still a long way to go unless they've made a deal with a holder.

[Basil]

So what's the count at so far.   By my count 500k shares acquired out of 1.8mill needed.  Still a long way to go unless they've made a deal with a holder.

~ 204K on Thursday, ~67K on Friday and today.  Yeap, looks like very close to 500K so far, but probably quite a few of those will have been speculative purchases looking to resell at a higher price.

[Waltzing]

Could be anyone and everyone buying... and that buying might not slow down as SHAZ buy a share thats now in the index. 

 snow next week and that means winter retail season starts soon.

[Teitei]

~ 204K on Thursday, ~67K on Friday and today.  Yeap, looks like very close to 500K so far, but probably quite a few of those will have been speculative purchases looking to resell at a higher price.

Illiquid stock at this stage until it enters the index - so fundies are most likely accumulating on market to cross to index funds on indexing day.

Given that they are having to pay up to get stock, they will want an ever higher price to cross the accumulated shares to the index funds. 

[Basil]

Illiquid stock at this stage until it enters the index - so fundies are most likely accumulating on market to cross to index funds on indexing day.

Given that they are having to pay up to get stock, they will want an ever higher price to cross the accumulated shares to the index funds. 

Agreed. Happy shareholders who backed up the truck in the very low $5's watching the action. 
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TsR64xXB8LI

[Waltzing]

" speculative purchases"

 and why not .... indeed its the news many will want to hear as inclusion means momentum by increasing numbers...

 

[Crackity]

Agreed. Happy shareholders who backed up the truck in the very low $5's watching the action. 
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TsR64xXB8LI

Selling any over the next couple of days? Personally I would but that's just me 

[Whome]

Selling any over the next couple of days? Personally I would but that's just me 

Would depend on the price offered. Could sell, but then what to buy to replace it.

[LoungeLizard]

Selling any over the next couple of days? Personally I would but that's just me 

Not me. Could be wrong but my feeling is that the SP will continue to kick upwards over the next week or so. Besides which, it's a hold just for the dividend and longer term growth prospects. There's not many other stocks in the current climate that one could safely park one's money and earn a reasonable divvy.