HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[winner (n)]

Annual Report out

Glassons now have 700k Instagram followers - 32k more than last year. Average sales per follower $373 if that means anything

Glassons also have 160k TikTok followers now - was only 118k last year

TikTok seems the way to go

Glassons doing all the right things

[Waltzing]

The NZ performance ?

G AUS is the show for sure.

Tik Tok is the new evil platform stealing 70 percent of donations to refugees.

The var with MHJ in respective P&L categories is interesting.

Expect MR B is trying to find time to go over the numbers.

[Basil]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/401205/381946.pdf

"Now that there is less disruption, I feel we have come out the other side with the brands stronger than ever and ready to take on the challenges
that we will face in the future"... While Glassons New Zealand didn't have as strong a performance during the second half of the year, there has been improvements as we have moved into the new financial year..
STUART DUNCAN
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

I really like the very understated way they talk about sales comparatives to last year when talking about sales YTD up 68%.  Paraphrased - "Comparisons with last year are difficult to make due to lockdowns etc".  You have to actually crunch the numbers to work out that sales are up 51% YTD compared to 2019 pre covid level's.

Another thing I really like is there's currently one less physical Glassons store in Australia than N.Z. despite the Australian market being about six times the size.  Gives a really useful insight into the size of the total "dressable" market there and the length of the runway for long term growth in Australia.

[Waltzing]

To MR B:

Note: Page 32 and 33

Performance report for 2022 and 2021 Table report is missing expense categories and the items in the columns dont add up to the totals.

Selling expenses appear to be missing for brand break down?

That is a terrible reporting format let alone no Page index in the report PDF object.

An example of what appears to be a terrible data presentation.

[Basil]

10/10

I'm not going to bother drilling down into the detail too much, sorry Waltzing.  I am sure there are logical explanations for your concerns and there may be better ways to present the data but what I am doing is concentrating on the big picture that I've already alluded too.

I think they've navigated the challenges of Covid really well.
What we have here is the oldest listed company on the NZX doing a very capital efficient job of expanding into the Australian market taking a very prudent approach and getting fabulous results.

I think they can do $400m+ in sales this year for circa 55 cps so we have a company with a well proven track record of growth with Glassons Au on a forward PE of only 10.

In addition, I think they can impute the April dividend of about 24 cps by half so that translates to 48 cps in dividends with 25% imputation = 51.61 cps gross which is close to a 10% gross yield.

Beagles are not patient dogs when it comes to eating so getting a 10% gross yield and buying a company with proven growth record and heaps more growth potential on a forward PE of 10 makes this a 10/10 dividend hounds stock and the "purrfect" stock for me.

They never come to you for more money to fund their growth, (and they pay you exceptionally well while they grow), which really makes this stand out to me.
Obviously, there's so many other things I like about it including no debt, cautious expansion of physical stores, strong growth in online sales, excellent stock turn, stable 20% long term cornerstone stake by Tim Glasson, Tim Glasson's son driving Glassons Au and I think Stuart Duncan is doing a great job as CEO.

In all my years I have never owned more HLG than I do currently and I'm thinking about buying even more !
I regularly check their website for the express purpose of ensuring their latest styles are "on trend"  It's "hard work" but someone has to do it lol
https://www.glassons.com/

[Waltzing]

"In addition, I think they can impute the April dividend of about 24 cps by half so that translates to 48 cps in dividends with 25% imputation = 51.61 cps gross which is close to a 10% gross yield."
 
lastest GDP report out of the US has growth higher than expected which means what recession?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/treasury-yields-rise-as-traders-scan-data-for-hints-about-fed-policy-.html

on a brighter note JB HI has beaten expectations showing the aussi retail shopper is still going strong.

[winner (n)]

Australia retail sales ex ABS for month of September

Clothing sector sales for month 72% higher than last year - wow

No wonder HLG got excited when saying something about sales for first part of year up 68%

Overall total retail sales for month were up 19% on last year - but with clothing sector really booming maybe this PEACOCKING thing is a real thing ...... and plenty of ladies going to the Melbourne Cup this week

Westpac tracker data for Oct still pretty +ve in OZ retail

A

[Basil]

I think this warrants another look at the website just to be sure they are up with the latest trends of course, no other reason.     https://www.glassons.com/
Oh my goodness, there's definitely some peacocking going on with their models that's for sure !
Only a month and a half (paid on 16 December) until we get the juicy 24 cent dividend in time for the Christmas season. 

[Basil]

Hey Winner, With sales up about 70% do they have enough stock for the busy season ahead ?
Another question, with stock flying out the door doesn't this mean a lot less discounting for the Christmas holiday season leading to better margins as well ?
Definitely some "peacocking" going on here...not sure they are Glassons outfits though... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/live-updates-2022-melbourne-cup-at-flemington-ultimate-form-guide-final-field-odds-tips-best-form-best-bets/MUX3G75VMVCXHD2XMFCHN4TSMU/

[BlackPeter]

Annual Report out

Glassons now have 700k Instagram followers - 32k more than last year. Average sales per follower $373 if that means anything

Glassons also have 160k TikTok followers now - was only 118k last year

TikTok seems the way to go

Glassons doing all the right things

I guess the fact I only came now across the report demonstrates my interest in HLG ... but hey, they are still on my watchlist.

No big changes in the parameters I tend to monitor (NTA 2 cents up, ROE dropped to 28.3%, but still quite healthy, liabilities to assets up a bit, but no worries).

However - some observation: I used to like the way their models are dressed for their reports, in some years their reports are a real joy for the eye, but this years report is somehow a disappointment. Feels like a rerun of the 1970'ies - anyway, many of the tops, dresses and other clothes just look lame to me.

But hey - they say "de gustibus non es disputandum", so maybe its just me?

I hope their customers like these colours and cuts - really this stuff needs to leave the shelves as soon as possible, it looks already tired unsold.

I will pick this year some other shop to buy stuff for my family.

Maybe Kathmandu?

[winner (n)]

RetailWatch October sales data (NZ) showed Clothing and Footwear up 22.5% on October last year

Australia market on booming .... NZ not doing too badly either

Last 3 months (first 3 months of HLG financial year) NZ market up 32%

All looking good .... good update coming next month .... wonder what x will be when they say 'first 18 weeks sales are x% more than same period last year'

Big number I reckon - all looking good for HLG

[Waltzing]

dairy price recession coming according to AUSSI traders on Winners() favourite channel CN B... C....... (thats a long B and C)
 

kiwi to expensive... lucky this is an AUSSI stock then.... should not they change listings? NZX cheaper one supposes.

you can publish any old report or probably soon will be able to.

[winner (n)]

dairy price recession coming according to AUSSI traders on Winners() favourite channel CN B... C....... (thats a long B and C)
 

kiwi to expensive... lucky this is an AUSSI stock then.... should not they change listings? NZX cheaper one supposes.

you can publish any old report or probably soon will be able to.

CNBC is evil ......bad for your health if you watch the cheerleaders too much

[winner (n)]

HLG are great at managing stocks and margins

Like for every $ of stock held they generate $6.60 of Gross Margin in a year

Even the god like Rod can't beat that - he only manages $3.17 .... and he's ahead of other NZ retailers

[Basil]

HLG are great at managing stocks and margins

Like for every $ of stock held they generate $6.60 of Gross Margin in a year

Even the god like Rod can't beat that - he only manages $3.17 .... and he's ahead of other NZ retailers

Amazing how they will turn ~$30m of stock into $400m+ of sales in FY23.   Watching this happen will be a lot of fun this year and VERY rewarding.
I think they can do north of 60 cents eps this year.  Hope they only pay out 50 cps and leave lots left over for more Glassons Australia store expansion.
26% CAGR in sales in the last 5 years for Glassons Aust and I think that can continue for the next 5 years to ~ $500m in FY27...looking for group sales to more than double from FY22's $351m to $700m+ by FY27.   Based on my forecast for FY23 HLG trades on a PE of 8.5, a gross yield of 10% and has excellent  growth prospects.    Disc: I have been steadily backing the truck up but there's more room in the trailer unit so sell me some more at $5.30 and make my day 😁