HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[winner (n)]

Lot of noise around HLG on this thread

Whenever there is too much noise around, we often have a hard time seeing the bigger picture; but when the layers are beautifully formed clarity can be found.

Just like how this photo shows us the effect of double exposure, some times we need to distance ourselves for a while in order to better understand what's in front of us.

I did that distancing - all good on the western front for HLG

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[Basil]

Very cool image Winner, you'd certainly get a good view up there     Can't help myself reflecting. That image reminds me of the old cliche that no matter how much you try and help "some people can't see the wood for the trees"

"The best guide we have to the future is the recent past" Basil

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You like to state this phrase. Not sure, though whether it is right. Blackpeter

In my professional capacity I have been helping clients forecast and plan ahead for the last 40 years and I have always found the recent past to be the best guide to how a client or one of my shares will perform going forward.  I always factor in all known specific factors believed to affect a company / client going forward as well as a comprehensive review of macro economic factors affecting the business.

The S&P Retail index is down 32% year to date and local retail stocks here other than HLG have also generally had a tough year.  My forecast for FY23 is on the record in this thread and the underlying assumptions that support my thesis.

Nobody gets forecasts right all the time.  Nevertheless, I have built considerable value in my portfolio over the years doing deep thinking about a company's history, structure, management, the strength of their balance sheet, cash flow and so on and where I see them going.  I also consider TA evidence as being a valuable tool.

As I've already posted extensively about HLG and why I like the risk-reward situation here at current prevailing prices I'm happy to let the companies trading update tomorrow do the talking.  I'm not here to sell HLG to you or anyone else, if you don't like the company or its prospects, that's perfectly fine with me.

I'll update my forecast for FY23 in the next few days, (for those interested) and again once we have a further trading update and half year forecast in February 2023.

P.S. Possibly worth noting, (for those who are interested), my recent forecast was based on Kiwi being worth 61 cents US, presently 64.6 cents.  Not worth changing my forecast for that because HLG use forward currency hedging to hedge out the risk of committed purchases so the effect of the recovering $Kiwi probably won't be felt in any meaningful way until HLG commit to Autumn or more likely, winter stock purchases.  Nevertheless, it's worth noting the $Kiwi has recovered about 16% since the lows of September and is now worth more than the 10 year average against the $US so currency can no longer be legitimately called a headwind going forward.

[Waltzing]

Go west young man... well Kanga land is westward from NZ.

10 year average is pretty good performance and who care why long may it last and now we just need air lines tickets to come down...

[SuperMario]

The .xls spreadsheet that opens use Sheet Table 1 is Electronic card transactions by industry – actual monthly values(1)

Says Nov 22 Apparel sales 394 and Nov 21 as 364

Don't even need to calculate the Percentage change from same month of previous year(6)
as Stats NZ do it for you - its in Cell J56 - 8.2%

Pretty good growth eh

Cheers, I had made the assumption the xls and csv would be the same just different file formats so didn't check it out 

[winner (n)]

Only 40 minutes to we find out what X is in sales X% higher than last year

[Basil]

Online Meeting here https://apps.computershare.com/MeetingsShareholderWeb/FindMeeting?Country=NZ

[winner (n)]

Online Meeting here https://apps.computershare.com/MeetingsShareholderWeb/FindMeeting?Country=NZ

I hope for your sake Warren shows a bit more enthusiasm than last year ...not for moment engaged.

Maybe he's found an excuse to give it a miss

[Waltzing]

HLG usually posts market update accouncements in feb , 17th.

Winner whats your fav charting tool thats is downloadable or do you use good old Excel..

the addins for lotus were far better than for excel as you could even created addins for cells for lotus 1 and the french graphic package for lotus for dos..

amazing package that one and super fast.

The french really showed how good they were at software on that one.

I dont think that product ever made it to NZ but we used it to create colorful diary production charts for farmers.. Colored sets of accounts... with a chart.

[winner (n)]

HLG usually posts market update accouncements in feb , 17th.

Winner whats your fav charting tool?

Graph paper and crayons ....or if I'm lucky felt pens

There's nothing like a beautifully created point and figure chart

[Basil]

Sales up 41% for the first 19 weeks.  Very solid, I like it !

Noting FX and freight cost pressures easing.

Initial impressions, Looks very good to me and on track to meet my forecast previously detailed on here.

[winner (n)]

Sales up 41% for the first 19 weeks.  Very solid, I like it !

No basil ...up 41.13%

[Waltzing]

"Graph paper and crayons ....or if I'm lucky felt pens"

classic ..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Playfair#:~:text=The%20founder%20of%20graphical%20methods,to%20show%20part%2Dwhole%20relations.

[Waltzing]

But will HLG share price respond... number of times great result nipped in to buy and ....

or will it be like MHJ BB ... total flop...

Mr B puts more runs on the board....

Update: buyers moving in...

Has Mr B hit it out of the park again...

we might have to deploy some real automation on PDF's after all....

whatch out winner crayons might be a thing of the past....

[Waltzing]

Are we going to see some FIREWORKS!!!!!
 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNZ8XCobUUM

[BlackPeter]

Sales up 41% for the first 19 weeks.  Very solid, I like it !

Noting FX and freight cost pressures easing.

Initial impressions, Looks very good to me and on track to meet my forecast previously detailed on here.

Hmm - so how do you rate the outlook?

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Sounds more like a "we will be lucky if the earnings stay the same as last year" to me.

But maybe it is just confirmation bias - on both sides ;

Good company, but I see in the short term a larger risk for them to drop than further potential to grow.