HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[Basil]

It was a fun ride from $2.75 to $7 eh Winner 
Just double all numbers with more than twice the earnings, ($5.50 to $14) and quadruple the number of shares as well this time and we could have some really serious fun in the years ahead 👍👍
Be a real "shame" in this gets into the NZX50 in due course and all those passive funds have to buy in 😉

Waltz - Don't think too many investors in the other place have got many clues at all about FY23 prospects. No analyst coverage, (we have to be our own analyst), and not even being discussed there at present.

[Waltzing]

Its a fact that men creating models that fashion the future has always been left to a few european men from france and italy..

In a world where interest rates are being tuoted at 7 percent in the US and global warming may crater profit margins of some economies this company has show a profit in a foreign land.

how does one create a model for this comapny without the imput of women.

Glassons is a womens clothing rag shop and does this say that women perfer looking good over food?

Apparently women in Kiev used to buy clothes and makeup before food... a common joke for women in Kiev.

These days its clohting for fighting in that is the big fashion hit this month on the front line.

Has MR B a hidden talent for picking the tastes of australian women's shopping when he is not a regular visitor to the melbourne cup!!!

what ever the reason for this forecast its certainly against the over all trend world wide.

Has President XI had a secret meeting with the prime minister of australia and told him that hes under huge pressure to somehow increase the supply of Australian wines to the parched throats of the middle classes in china.

Will tjhe problem with exports to china been resolved in a back room meeting leading to a yet to be forecast increase in Kanga GDP?

Its all going to be a nail  bitter thats for sure....
 

[winner (n)]

December 15th we'll get an update on sales ....along the lines of 'sales for first 19 weeks of FY23 were x% up on pcp'

Don't think X will be as high as 68% they printed for the first 8 weeks

But X will be pretty high I reckon ...giving the market the confidence in actually believe F23 is going to be a ginormous year profit wise.

Rest of ASM will be boring as ...probably even worse than last year when Warren clearly didn't want to be there.

[Basil]

No X won't be 68% because during the first 8 weeks of the year in the previous corresponding period there were widespread lockdowns on both sides of the Tasman whereas in early November 2021 the lockdown prison sentences ended so the last 5-6 weeks of the ~ 19 week comparative period will be like for like.

I am hoping for ~ 35%-40% sales increase for the period August to mid December and forecasting 24% for the full year.

[winner (n)]

ABS Australia Retail Stats for October

Headline says total sales fell 0.2% month on month seasonally adjusted- clothing etc sector fell 0.6%. Westpac says the dip was below expectations and the broad based weakening suggests that rate hikes are starting to bite

Let the statisticians and bank economists do their thing but the raw numbers were -

Clothing sector October sales were 32% higher than October last year. Annual sales to October were 25% higher than a year ago

For the HLG fiscal period Aug/Sep/Oct clothing sector sales are 58% higher than same period last year

Might need to up forecasts / expectations basil - because Glassons AU will growing faster than the market

[Basil]

As you know Winner I am very bullish on Glassons Au but I am of course talking group sales including Glassons N.Z. and Hallensteins, (only 4 stores in Australia).

I'm also mindful that after that dreadful 107 lockdown the wider Auckland region of ~ 1.7 million had to endure last year that ended in early November, there was a lot of pent up pressure to get out and about and spend when we were allowed back into shops again.  People were desperate to get out and about mate...you had to live through that shocking lockdown to really understand what it did to people's mental health and stress level's...it was a real shocker, pretty close to a form of home detention...some very desperately needed retail therapy was badly needed for all Aucklanders last November / December.

35-40% group sales increase year to mid-December is just a guess, hopefully its somewhere around there.  I certainly won't be complaining if its higher  😉

[winner (n)]

You read/hear Aussie stuff and it seems the world is coming to an end .... nobody shopping blah blah

This chart is annual retail sales in Australia over the years -- the 'Total Less Food' a proxy for discretionary spend and Clothing because I do the numbers for HLG lol

What you read/hear doesn't seem to be happening - you could even say covid has boosted retail spend quite a lot

You cannot view this attachment.

[Basil]

Let me explain it to you mate.  This song encapsulates Glassons target market.  Young women that want cool inexpensive clothes that make them look cool and sexy.  "They don't care" about higher interest rates, house price movements, unemployment.  Huge labour shortages across all industries and they're getting paid a lot more and want to get out, have fun and do their peacocking.  Its all explained in the video.  We'll be alright in the recession of 2023 because the Glassons demographic don't care about recessions either.  Nearly 3 years of Covid madness and the young people are completely over it and want to have fun.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxxajLWwzqY

[Waltzing]

Could this stock actually be the only option left for growth in SP after it been forecast that NZ will have 6 quarters of no growth... 6!!!!!!!

" Young women that want cool inexpensive clothes that make them look cool "

this is actually exactly what the fashion womens underwear designer in AUS stated last week...

She said she shopped there from a teenager  growing up in NZ and that was well over a decade ago... mums take their daughters there to start there fashion shopping habits she said.

[BlackPeter]

Let me explain it to you mate.  This song encapsulates Glassons target market.  Young women that want cool inexpensive clothes that make them look cool and sexy.  "They don't care" about higher interest rates, house price movements, unemployment.  Huge labour shortages across all industries and they're getting paid a lot more and want to get out, have fun and do their peacocking.  Its all explained in the video.  We'll be alright in the recession of 2023 because the Glassons demographic don't care about recessions either.  Nearly 3 years of Covid madness and the young people are completely over it and want to have fun.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxxajLWwzqY

You might well be right.

Though still interesting to ponder how this is all going to end ... young people spending money they don't have and afterwards complaining bitterly about the boomer generation who worked hard and did save money in their youth and now being better off?

But hey - this is probably not the right thread for this discussion.

[Basil]

I'm not jumping into that can of worms with you.

[Basil]

Nice to see my invitation to the annual meeting they are holding in person or online on 15 December arrive today.  Appointed Tim Glasson or in his absence James Glasson as my proxy.  100% sure they will vote with my best interests at heart.  I'm really looking forward to the meeting, (will view online and might ask a couple of questions) and year to date sales update.

HLG trade ex their 24 cent dividend on 8 December, paid 16 December.

[winner (n)]

USD weakening ..... globally

NZD should continue to strengthen ... been good the last six weeks 55 to 62

That should help HLG

[Waltzing]

Kanga inflation came in weaker ....

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/australia-monthly-inflation-slows-october-hints-possible-peak-2022-11-30/

[Basil]

USD weakening ..... globally

NZD should continue to strengthen ... been good the last six weeks 55 to 62

That should help HLG

Nicely predicted, now over 63 cents and 63 point something, if I recall correctly, is the ten year average so headwinds in regard to currency have abated nicely.