GTK - Gentrack

[Left Field]

Anyway....back to business...... Perky on the other side posts rumours of a major new contract to explain the recent SP rise.

"Apparently they (GTK) placed an ad for job managing Bulgaria largest energy supplier...so rumours they picked up a major new contract
...in market wrap up from the nz herald today"

[Left Field]

Half year results out.....NPAT up 34% ... 80% increase in cash on hand.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/451801/attachment/443531/451801-443531.pdf

Results Summary

• Revenue: $112m – up 9.8% on H1 24, with the Group's recurring
revenues 16.7% higher at $76.4m.
• EBITDA: $13m – up 5.1% on H1 24 as we invest more in sales and
g2.0. For the full year we expect EBITDA to grow faster than
revenue.
• Statutory NPAT: $7.2m profit – up 34.7% on H1 24.
• Cash: $70.7m v $39.3m at H1 24 - up 80%

Detailed Presentation here; https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/451801/attachment/443530/451801-443530.pdf

Disc; Held since $2.58 days. In last 12 months have taken some profits off the table.  GTK now only 6% of my portfolio (freehold.)

[winner (n)]

GTK not going too well at the moment

Market Closev-

Paul Robertshawe, Octagon's chief investment officer, highlighted Gentrack Group, which fell 3.16% to $10.12 and is down over 20% in the last 30 days.

Robertshawe said both Craigs and Forsyth Barr had downgraded the stock. Australian investment house Jefferies has likewise downgraded, from 'buy' to 'hold', in recent days.

"[Gentrack] have lost a couple of tenders, and now they've lost one of their own existing customers," Robertshawe said. "So, people will be going: 'Is that growth rate that we've got built in really achievable if your existing customers are churning off?"

[Left Field]

Yep Winner,  GTK's growth has been slowing, maybe the lustre has gone?

I sold the last of mine late May 2025 at $11.85..... was a good ride from $2.58

[Left Field]

Details of the competitor arguably responsible for GTK struggling with new and existing customers.

https://kraken.tech/about

Happy to sit on the sidelines for a while.

[Left Field]

Milford reducing their exposure to GTK.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/457002/attachment/449805/457002-449805.pdf

[bulltrap]

Milford reducing their exposure to GTK.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/457002/attachment/449805/457002-449805.pdf

Is reducing exposure in their MO playbook, or is it more likely a sustained selldown?

(Having been on the wrong side of their selldown for MFB, I'd be inclined to assume the latter, and keep away until the dust settles.)

Disc: Never held GTK, more of an ERD guy

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Not sure what level of revenue this is, but anything is good I suppose and it opens up a new type of market.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/462279

Veovo to modernize NAV CANADA air navigation billing system

10/11/2025, 08:30 NZDT, GENERAL


Veovo, the airport software business of Gentrack Group (NZX/ASX GTK), announced today that it will deliver a modern, cloud-based billing system to NAV CANADA. The new system will manage the calculation and invoicing of air navigation service charges for airspace users across Canadian airspace and international airspace managed by Canada, the world's second largest by volume. This initiative reflects NAV CANADA's commitment to continuous improvement, replacing its legacy billing system—limited in flexibility and scalability—with a modern platform built to meet evolving business needs and customer expectations.

This long-term contract win, opens up a new market for Veovo of air navigation service providers, supporting the continued strong growth of our airports division this financial year and in the future.

"Our billing system is a critical business application that supports our continued operation", said David Sheppard, Vice President and Chief Technology & Information Officer, NAV CANADA. "This solution allows us to continue to provide accurate and timely billing to our customers while gaining the scalability and ongoing enhancements that come with a modern Software as a Service (SaaS) platform."

"It is a privilege to partner with NAV CANADA in this transformation," said James Williamson, CEO of Veovo. "Their commitment to safety and operational excellence and focus on system modernisation aligns perfectly with our approach to solving complex aviation challenges. We're proud to be part of a team contributing to innovative and reliable outcomes for airspace users across Canada."

[winner (n)]

That positive announcement the other about Gentrack getting involved in thevcalculation and invoicing of air navigation service charges for airspace users across Canadian airspace and international airspace managed by Canada,the world's second largest by volume hasn't stopped the slide in share price

Could go sub $8 next week ....,and 40% down from recent highs is some slide

[Left Field]

Yep Winner,  GTK's growth has been slowing, maybe the lustre has gone?

I sold the last of mine late May 2025 at $11.85..... was a good ride from $2.58

Crikey...... proved to be very fortuitous. Down to the mid $7's today.

[BlackPeter]

hmmm ... don't follow them anymore, but just looking at the promised earings: 14 cents this year and 21 cents next year.

Good they make money, but is this really worth a SP of $7 plus? Sounds more like a $1 to $2 SP (depending  on the expected growth rate).

[Left Field]

hmmm ... don't follow them anymore, but just looking at the promised earings: 14 cents this year and 21 cents next year.

Good they make money, but is this really worth a SP of $7 plus? Sounds more like a $1 to $2 SP (depending  on the expected growth rate).

See post #49 above. GTK was growing at a fast rate which supported the previous SP rise.... however it is now facing tough competition and as a result revenue growth has been impacted.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

hmmm ... don't follow them anymore, but just looking at the promised earings: 14 cents this year and 21 cents next year.

Good they make money, but is this really worth a SP of $7 plus? Sounds more like a $1 to $2 SP (depending  on the expected growth rate).

The following is not a comment regarding the worthiness or not of the current share price, but the reason for a high valuation multiple is because it's a software company, which enjoys the benefit of very high operating leverage due to fixed costs that increase far less than revenue growth.

That's the theory at least.

[BlackPeter]

The following is not a comment regarding the worthiness or not of the current share price, but the reason for a high valuation multiple is because it's a software company, which enjoys the benefit of very high operating leverage due to fixed costs that increase far less than revenue growth.

That's the theory at least.

Nice theory.

Its just that Gentrack basically needs to specialise its software for each individual application, which basically removes this "benefit". Every new plant requires a lot of additional work.

Doesn't matter - in my view its just the ususal coming and going of hype - no  matter whether the company write software for sewage treatment plants (GTK), calls itself after a milk protein (ATM), controls stainless steel for the production of milk powder (SML), does medical checks on bladder cancer (PEB) or tries to collect fertilizer from the sea (CRP) ... and so many more.

What investors (or traders) really need is a model to predict hypepeaks and valleys ... but I suppose technical analysis is probably the best we've got. At this stage the indicators for GTK look not that flash.

[Left Field]

.... Gentrack basically needs to specialise its software for each individual application, which basically removes this "benefit". Every new plant requires a lot of additional work.

I suspect GTK has an issue in the 'stickability' of its SAAS services/products, GTK are losing existing customers and missing out on new customers. They no longer dominate their target markets.

Interesting to compare with IKE who go out of their way to adapt their SAAS to clients needs as evidenced by their 'IKE University' which uses education to teach the use of their SAAS products and set/meet needed industry standards. IKE also benefits from this 'university' by listening to its 'students' to learn about new product development priorities.

As a result IKE is now imbedded in 8 of the 10 of the largest US companies in their utilities market and are gaining an average of 2 new utility customers per week.

Sure IKE still has a way to go to prove its commercial viability, but GTK could learn much from the 'stickability' of the IKE  SAAS model.

IKE SP up approximately  130% this YTD..... while GTK SP down approximately 48%.