KPG - Kiwi Property Group

[Basil]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/whats-going-on-with-petrol-pricesand-will-they-fall-fast-enough-to-turn-the-economy-around-liam-dann/premium/VPPPIYEC4VFYJLPOZNV62ADCFE/

[winner (n)]

Lots of chat at other place about the relationship between REITs share prices and 10 Year Govt rates.

Yes KPG share price has a very strong correlation with the 10 Year rate

10 Year currently 4.36% ......means 'theoretical price' for KPG is $1.06

As we all no doubt agree KPG under priced at moment ...on this basis anyway

[Basil]

Definitely rated BBB.  Basil been buying.

[Dolcile]

Lots of chat at other place about the relationship between REITs share prices and 10 Year Govt rates.

Yes KPG share price has a very strong correlation with the 10 Year rate

10 Year currently 4.36% ......means 'theoretical price' for KPG is $1.06

As we all no doubt agree KPG under priced at moment ...on this basis anyway

Winner I'm curious, how do you infer a price of $1.06 from the 10 year rate?

[winner (n)]

Definitely rated BBB.  Basil been buying.

Bought a few this afternoon ....got 19 tranasction notifications lol

[winner (n)]

Winner I'm curious, how do you infer a price of $1.06 from the 10 year rate?

The linear regression formula derived from a database of monthly closes since 2008 of KPG share price and 10 Year Govt rate ....cross checked for reasonableness with same methodology of yield v 10nyear

[Basil]

The linear regression formula derived from a database of monthly closes since 2008 of KPG share price and 10 Year Govt rate ....cross checked for reasonableness with same methodology of yield v 10nyear

Seems sound to me.  I like the 9%+ yield along with Directors ambitions to grow DPS by 3% a year.  Pretty safe investment in the low to mid 90's I reckon.  Risk and reward well and truly skewed to the upside in my opinion.

[Pierre]

It's always been the same sadly, Basil. Wait for big oil profit announcements in coming months - they won't have suffered very much, if anything.

Here's the news from Shell:

Shell posts best quarterly profit in four years as Iran war boosts oil and gas prices

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/shell-2q-earnings-iran-war-oil.html?__source=androidappshare

[Otago K]

Some indication heard that KPG might have found a support level from sell off of August September 2026 at 87c that will see some sort of uplift. Due to where it sits in the REIT pricing cycle at present.
Not advice do your own research, and further events will have their own influence.
Discl: smaller holding from April 2025 levels that are now free carried for Funds Invested.