KPG - Kiwi Property Group

[winner (n)]

How the KPG share price has gone compared to 10 Year Govt Stock

One day might map yield v 10 Year -- prob look much the same

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[Shareguy]

Hm. Competition for KPG as just down the Road

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/te-reiputa-auckland-build-to-rent-apartment-fills-fast-as-tenants-lock-in-up-to-10-year-leases/premium/CJSLA4KCGRFYZIYAPY2IMREZ3Y/

[Basil]

Disciplined FY26 execution strengthens balance sheet
18/05/2026, 08:30 NZST, FLLYR
Net rental income $202.4m (+4.3%)
Operating profit before tax $126.2m (+8.6%)
Net profit after tax $50.4m (-11.5%)
Adjusted funds from operations $100.2m (+8.0%)
Net tangible assets per share $1.12 (-2.4%)
Full year dividend 5.60 cents per share (+3.7%)

Dividend outlook for FY27 up 2.7% to 5.75 cps.

Occupancy up very strongly from 96.9% to 99%

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/472753/attachment/468522/472753-468522.pdf

Disc: Holding ~ 7% portfolio allocation for tax efficient reliable quarterly dividend income.

[BlackPeter]

Disciplined FY26 execution strengthens balance sheet
18/05/2026, 08:30 NZST, FLLYR
Net rental income $202.4m (+4.3%)
Operating profit before tax $126.2m (+8.6%)
Net profit after tax $50.4m (-11.5%)
Adjusted funds from operations $100.2m (+8.0%)
Net tangible assets per share $1.12 (-2.4%)
Full year dividend 5.60 cents per share (+3.7%)

Dividend outlook for FY27 up 2.7% to 5.75 cps.

Occupancy up very strongly from 96.9% to 99%

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/472753/attachment/468522/472753-468522.pdf

Disc: Holding ~ 7% portfolio allocation for tax efficient reliable quarterly dividend income.

Yep, not too bad for a Build to Rent company.

On the other hand - after reaching 99% occupation, further occupancy gains will get more difficult, and 2027 forecast sounds as well a bit more - hmm complex..

But yes, I hold them as well despite all the people who complained about the build to rent program ... and don't see at this stage a reason to change this. Maybe I buy some more, while the price is right.

[mfd]

You call them a build to rent company, but they certainly aren't talking much about Resido in today's releases. Good occupancy, but looks like a small valuation fall and they are no longer talking about repeating the model as far as I can see.

Fairly small part of the portfolio, but maybe a failed experiment? Harder to account for the flow on benefits to their surrounding properties.

[Basil]

Yield on Resido lower than what they were expecting I reckon.  Interesting that foot traffic in Sylvia park is up 8% since Ikea's opening a while ago.  I'd suggest its opening was far more impactful than Resido.

Not so good to see the value of Drury fall considering the investment there.  I'm guessing the current cost of earthmoving and roading is well north of initial projections.  Maybe they slow this development down with so much geopolitical uncertainty at present ?

Good to see the forecast dividend go up and their goal to increase it by 3% each year.

[entrep]

Following on the Drury point, capex was already down nearly 20% this year ($82.5m vs ~$102.5m prior), and that mostly explains why pre-lease FCF moved from -$22m to roughly breakeven. If they ease Drury further it'd help cash short term but you'd want to watch the timing of when Drury actually starts generating earnings.

The other bit worth flagging is the dividend math. Payout ratio on NPAT has jumped to 45.6% vs a historical average around 27%.  They're growing the dividend through an earnings contraction. Company frames it as 92% on AFFO which is the standard property-sector frame, so fine on that basis. But if revaluations keep pulling NPAT down, the gap between statutory earnings and what they're paying out keeps widening.

The above is from a closer look I took via Annolyse (https://www.annolyse.ai/briefings/kpg-fy26), a site I've been building, does source-backed briefings on NZX results with a chat for follow-up questions.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Yield on Resido lower than what they were expecting I reckon.  Interesting that foot traffic in Sylvia park is up 8% since Ikea's opening a while ago.  I'd suggest its opening was far more impactful than Resido.

Not so good to see the value of Drury fall considering the investment there.  I'm guessing the current cost of earthmoving and roading is well north of initial projections.  Maybe they slow this development down with so much geopolitical uncertainty at present ?

Good to see the forecast dividend go up and their goal to increase it by 3% each year.

The Drury valuation is based on the property value as is (ie before it is officially split into portions to sell). Valuations will jump once completed and LFR land parcels are settled on.

[Shareguy]

Craigs latest

Nick Hill has maintained the Overweight rating on Kiwi Property Group post the full year result (TP +2% to NZ$1.09). FY26 AFFO of $100.2m increased +$7.4m/+8.0% on pcp (FY25: $92.8m), slightly ahead of expectations (CIPe: $99.3m). Portfolio performance remained solid, with like-for-like rental growth of +4.0% and new leases and renewals delivering +6.3% growth. Retail-led mixed-use rental growth of +3.6% p.a. exceeded expectations (+2.5%) despite a soft macro backdrop. The Vero Centre is now almost fully leased at 99% occupancy (vs FY25: 92%). KPG enters FY27 with pro-forma gearing of 33.3% after recycling ASB North Wharf. While this has been marginally earnings-dilutive, KPG has guided to a FY27 DPS of 5.75cps (+2.7% vs pcp), which KPG expect to be at the upper end of its 90%-100% AFFO payout range. We have KPG slightly exceeding this band (102% in FY27) albeit this is a near term dynamic with Drury land sale profits and ongoing NPI growth providing a natural tailwind from FY28 onwards. At last close, KPG offered a cash yield of 6.3%, (ahead of the sector median at 5.7%) and with AFFO to grow at a 3% clip to FY30 the risk reward looks relatively attractive. Overweight rating retained with an updated TP of NZ$1.09 per share (KPG last 91cps) ...

[Basil]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/inside-economics-how-the-usiran-deal-could-jump-start-nzs-economic-recovery/premium/5WBMVDSWSJF6JDRC6ZFLEDH63M/?lid=vvpwpxmdojgd  Paywalled.
Interesting excerpt

If Donald Trump hadn't started a war with Iran in the first place, we wouldn't have an oil crisis to crush our recovery in the first quarter.
(You can bet that's not going to stop him claiming credit as oil prices fall and consumers feel the benefits of lower prices at the pump.)
But it happened, and we adapted. We got through the bit where things got substantially worse.  We've found an equilibrium now; if things get better, it still feels like a win.  The momentum, the direction of travel for the economy, is suddenly in the right direction, gaining ... even if we are technically still worse off than pre-war. Petrol prices don't have to return to the lows of January to make us feel better. They just need to be better than last week.
There's a macroeconomic version of this called the Easterlin paradox.

Quick rebound to consumer spending coming ?

[Shareguy]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/inside-economics-how-the-usiran-deal-could-jump-start-nzs-economic-recovery/premium/5WBMVDSWSJF6JDRC6ZFLEDH63M/?lid=vvpwpxmdojgd  Paywalled.
Interesting excerpt

Quick rebound to consumer spending coming ?

Don't no about that. It's too early I reckon. Any rebound I think is going to be slow. House owners generally are not feeling the love. Election year and lots of job insecurity.

[Habitz]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/inside-economics-how-the-usiran-deal-could-jump-start-nzs-economic-recovery/premium/5WBMVDSWSJF6JDRC6ZFLEDH63M/?lid=vvpwpxmdojgd  Paywalled.
Interesting excerpt

Quick rebound to consumer spending coming ?

I think so and have said so previously. The economy was already improving when the conflict started, confidence and up-cycle momentum were building. The relatively short conflict wasn't deep enough for any lasting damage I reckon

[Basil]

Latest ANZ card spending data for May out earlier this week with spending up 2.8% month on month provides encouragement.