FBU-Fletcher Building

[snapiti]

gave up trying to pick the bottom years ago, I believe one must shut out all the noise and focus on a price that one is comfortable taking out any given investment and show conviction to that purchase.
That way, if your read is right, it does not matter if it goes lower than your purchase as eventually when the sell sentiment abates you should eventually end in the money.
Also be prepared to back yourself if you have real conviction on a stock and the market sells down after you purchase and treat it as another buying opportunity.
I think to many investors let their emotions control their buying and selling decesions.....one needs to get control of fear and greed to become a good investor. 

[Basil]

Thanks Winner but I get average eps incl all extraordinary items of only 27.7 cps for the last 15 years.

Even if you are really kind and back out the billion-dollar loss on the NZICC and assume that really is a one off that will never repeat, and by extension they'll never have to take a series of write-downs of that magnitude again, that lifts 15 average eps including other extraordinary write-downs to 35.7 cps.  Put a PE of 8 on that and I get $2.86.

Sorry mate, I know you like it here, but I'm happy to let the numbers do the talking ignore Ross Taylor prattle about how it's all going to be wonderful from CY25 onwards and how there's so much potential in the business blah, blah, blah.

I believe one must shut out all the noise and focus on a price that one is comfortable taking out any given investment and show conviction to that purchase.

Well said Snapper.  I'd be happy to take a small position at $2.50 which I think would reflect the real worth of the business with all its risks going forward.  Ask me if I care if it doesn't get that low.  😉

[snapiti]

Thanks Winner but I get average eps incl all extraordinary items of only 27.7 cps for the last 15 years.

Even if you are really kind and back out the billion-dollar loss on the NZICC and assume that really is a one off that will never repeat, and by extension they'll never have to take a series of write-downs of that magnitude again, that lifts 15 average eps including other extraordinary write-downs to 35.7 cps.  Put a PE of 8 on that and I get $2.86.

Sorry mate, I know you like it here, but I'm happy to let the numbers do the talking ignore Ross Taylor prattle about how it's all going to be wonderful from CY25 onwards and how there's so much potential in the business blah, blah, blah.Well said Snapper.  I'd be happy to take a small position at $2.50 which I think would reflect the real worth of the business with all its risks going forward.  Ask me if I care if it doesn't get that low.  😉

Interesting number....I will climb into it as soon as it hits $2.90 provided their is no material change in the meantime

[Oliver Mander]

I thought it may be worth sharing the two most recent blog posts from NZ Shareholders Association (published on February 13th and 15th respectively - ie, before and after the announcement made by the company on Feb 14th). We're continuing to state we believe the changes announced during the week should be the beginning of change, not the end.
Feb 13th: https://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/scrip-article/its-just-a-flesh-wound/
Feb 15th: Whttps://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/scrip-article/a-decade-of-disaster-for-shareholders/

[Shareguy]

I thought it may be worth sharing the two most recent blog posts from NZ Shareholders Association (published on February 13th and 15th respectively - ie, before and after the announcement made by the company on Feb 14th). We're continuing to state we believe the changes announced during the week should be the beginning of change, not the end.
Feb 13th: https://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/scrip-article/its-just-a-flesh-wound/
Feb 15th: Whttps://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/scrip-article/a-decade-of-disaster-for-shareholders/

Thanks for posting Oliver. Can't open Feb15 article. Has W before https

[Waltzing]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350181308/insiders-view-what-went-wrong-fletcher

interesting article which may be a short Treatise for why central control for governments can also destroy creative solutions often required for local problems...

[Basil]

https://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/scrip-article/a-decade-of-disaster-for-shareholders/

Took the W off for ya.

[Shareguy]

CFO says company committed to keeping its stable rating.  How will that be achieved I wonder without a capital raise or selling assets.


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/426362

[kiwi2007]

CFO says company committed to keeping its stable rating.  How will that be achieved I wonder without a capital raise or selling assets.


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/426362

I think they're selling the Aussie plumbing business?

[kiwi2007]

Sorry double post.

[snapiti]

very interesting price movement today!!!!!!! pump and dump or leaky ship?

[winner (n)]

very interesting price movement today!!!!!!! pump and dump or leaky ship?

Maybe with takeover activity around CSL and BLD is fuelling speculation there might be interest in FBU

Better check in with AFR on a regular basis

But you'd have to say the price drop after the announcements was a bit over reactive

[snapiti]

yes it was but that is not unusual as fear and greed are a big driver of SP....emotional investors create many opportunities

[snapiti]

interesting the chair now gone with immediate effect, none of the usual thanks for a great job BS either, decided to sell my modest holdings today

[Basil]

Wait for $2.50 and maybe try again, all it's really worth in my opinion.